While the average basketball viewer may deliberately avoid watching the Toronto Raptors compete from a pure aesthetics standpoint, those looking to make a buck in the sports betting landscape can look at this team and find tremendous value despite the on-court product being abysmal.
The Raptors are currently in the midst of a 15-game losing streak SU, which is the second-longest skid in team history behind only the 1997-98 roster at 17 games. After falling to the Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 on Wednesday night, Toronto's streak of defeats has come by a combined total of 288 points, which is the sixth-worst over a 15-game span in NBA history.
Including Wednesday's feeble effort with only eight players available, the Raptors are the first team to ever lose three games over such a stretch by 40 points or more. They also fell to the New York Knicks by 44 points on March 27 and by 41 to the New Orleans Pelicans just a few weeks prior.
When it rains, it pours, and the torrential downpour drowning Toronto as of late isn't showing any signs of slowing down with just six games remaining on the schedule. All-Star forward Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl are out with hand injuries, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley had missed time for personal reasons, Gary Trent Jr. is dealing with a nagging back, Chris Boucher is absent with a knee injury, and Ochai Agbaji just recently hurt his hip.
So where is that aforementioned value coming from?
It's never fun to kick someone while they're down, but Toronto's on-court suffering has led to massive gains for anyone fading the team against the spread since the start of March. No matter how enormous the spread, which is saying something considering the Raptors have registered three of their five largest underdog spreads ever in the last month alone, they rarely ever cover with the rarest of exceptions.
Toronto Raptors' Record Since March 1 (1-16 SU, 3-14 ATS)
| Date | Opponent | Final Score | Line | SU | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 1, 2024 | Golden State Warriors | 120-105 L | +2.5 | L | L |
| March 3, 2024 | Charlotte Hornets | 111-106 W | -7 | W | L |
| March 5, 2024 | New Orleans Pelicans | 139-98 L | +9.5 | L | L |
| March 7, 2024 | Phoenix Suns | 120-113 L | +10 | L | W |
| March 9, 2024 | Portland Trail Blazers | 128-118 L | -2.5 | L | L |
| March 11, 2024 | Denver Nuggets | 125-119 L | +17 | L | W |
| March 13, 2024 | Detroit Pistons | 113-104 L | +3.5 | L | L |
| March 15, 2024 | Orlando Magic | 113-103 L | +8 | L | L |
| March 17, 2024 | Orlando Magic | 111-96 L | +11 | L | L |
| March 20, 2024 | Sacramento Kings | 123-89 L | +11.5 | L | L |
| March 22, 2024 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 123-103 L | +16.5 | L | L |
| March 23, 2024 | Washington Wizards | 112-109 L | +6 | L | W |
| March 25, 2024 | Brooklyn Nets | 96-88 L | +6.5 | L | L |
| March 27, 2024 | New York Knicks | 145-101 L | +14 | L | L |
| March 31, 2024 | Philadelphia 76ers | 135-120 L | +9 | L | L |
| April 2, 2024 | Los Angeles Lakers | 128-111 L | +13.5 | L | L |
| April 3, 2024 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 133-85 L | +17.5 | L | L |
Say, for example, that each spread line was at -110 and you bet for the opposing team to cover every game against Toronto. At $100 per bet, you'd currently be swimming in $974 in profit for fading the Raptors alone.
Each winning bet at -110 odds results in .91 units. If you multiply those .91 units by the 14 times the Raptors haven't covered during this run, then you'd have 12.74 units. Now Toronto did cover three times, meaning we subtract 3 (-1 for each loss) from 12.74 which equates to 9.74 units. That means you'd net $974 if each bet were $100, or $97.4 if you were more conservative at $10 per bet.
There have been 14 instances across the Association in 2023-24 of a team being an underdog of 16.5 points or more. The Detroit Pistons, who set a new single-season record with 27 consecutive losses, are responsible for four of those occurrences. Toronto, meanwhile, ranks second overall with three, including the most recent when visiting the Target Center.
Of the Raptors' six remaining games, only two are against teams completely out of the playoff picture, yet both of those teams the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards have already beaten Toronto during this ongoing streak.
There may be no reprieve in sight for the Raptors, as the plug will soon be pulled on one of, if not the absolute worst season for a multitude of reasons they've ever had. For bettors, though, it's time to strike while the iron is hot when the team is anything but.
