Odds to Win ACC Tournament: FSU Favored In An Open Field

In previous years, there have typically been two or three clear favorites of the ACC tournament separate from the rest of the field. However, in 2020 at Greensboro, North Carolina, there is no obvious team that anyone would wager on with 100 percent confidence, since only one team ranks in the top five in the nation and every squad has had at least five losses on the year. The No. 4 Florida State Seminoles, the conference’s highest-ranked team, are the favorite at +175 to win the ACC tournament for the first time since 2012.

Online sportsbook BetOnline has Florida State leading the way at +175 followed by Duke at +200, Louisville at +350, Virginia at +600, North Carolina at +1200, Clemson at +2500, NC State at +3300, Syracuse at +3300, Notre Dame at +4000 and Miami at +6600 to round out the top 10 teams on the oddsboard.

Be sure to check out our March Madness hub for all your betting information for the conclusion of the college hoops season.

Why Is Florida State The Favorite?

To start, the Seminoles finished the regular season in first place in the ACC with a 26-5 record, including a 16-4 conference mark, and are the only ACC squad without a loss at home, sporting a perfect 16-0 record. They are stout on both sides of the ball, ranking 43rd in the nation offensively and 64th defensively.

What really stands out to me is FSU’s depth and team play. Three players average more than 10 points per game, led by sophomore guard Devin Vassell, four players average four or more boards per game and seven players average at least one assist per game.

Standing between the Seminoles and a berth in the final is the winner between Clemson and Miami, who meet on the second day of the tournament, then likely a dance with Duke in the semifinal. Compare this to the bottom half of the tournament where Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse and North Carolina loom and it’s obvious the top half has a much clearer path to victory.

Is There Value On North Carolina?

In a lackluster season, the Tar Heels finished in the basement of the ACC for the first time since the 2001-02 season. That said, UNC had some tough losses, including an overtime defeat to Duke and a two-point loss to Virginia, as well as an early-season win over then-No. 11 Oregon.

North Carolina enters the tournament with a little bit of momentum, having won three of its final four games, and has odds of +1200 to win. But the Heels are completely overvalued at that number, as they would have to earn victories over Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Louisville, likely Virginia and then likely the winner of Florida State and Duke – not happening, save your money.

Which Team Is Providing the Best Value?

The team that stands out to me from a value perspective is the No. 2 seed Virginia Cavaliers at +600. The Cavaliers finished the regular season with a 23-7 record, including 15-5 in ACC play. Virginia appeared as though it might be facing an uphill battle in the 2020 season after winning the national title last year, starting off conference play with a 2-4 record, but flipped a switch and won 11 of its final 12 games, including an ongoing eight-game winning streak.

Similar to last year, the Cavs offense is nothing to write home about, ranking 350th out of 353 teams at just 57 points per game. What?! How am I backing a team that has such a horrible offense? Well, for as bad as Virginia’s offense is, its defense is equally good, even better, leading the nation with just 52.4 ppg allowed, which is 3.7 points fewer than last year’s top-ranked defense permitted.

Considering how hot they have been down the stretch and the fact they have a bye into the quarterfinals, with Louisville – a team they beat on Saturday – likely their opponent in the semis, and Duke or FSU – both teams Virginia beat in the regular season – in the final, the Cavaliers have a great value at +600.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds to win the 2020 ACC tournament:

Odds as of March 9 at BetOnline