One of the biggest rivalries in all of sports, Duke-UNC doesn’t hold quite the same meaning this season as the Tar Heels are in the basement of the ACC. Despite Duke still being a top-10 program, the history of the rivalry has only made them eight-point road favorites on Saturday.
- Date/Time: February 8, 6:00 p.m. ET
- Arena: Dean E. Smith Center
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Sportsbook Odds: Duke -8 | O/U 150
- Duke vs North Carolina Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
North Carolina is on pace for its first losing season in almost 20 years, while Duke is still one of the country’s elite programs but due to the history of one of the biggest rivalries in any sport, the Blue Devils opened as just eight-point road favorites. The total opened at 150 points, which seems high but is expected because any time Duke plays… it’s a good bet that lots of points are going to be scored.
Duke News & Notes
Following back-to-back losses in mid-January, Duke has rebounded to win four straight games, with their high-powered offense leading the way.
The total has gone OVER in six of Duke’s last seven games, as Vernon Carey Jr. and Tre Jones are powering an offense that is fourth in the country in scoring at 82.5 points per game, seventh in points per 100 possessions and 49th in offensive pace.
Anytime they play at Chapel Hill, however, the games tend to have a lower-scoring, defensive playoff atmosphere, as the total has gone UNDER in eight of their last 11 meetings on UNC’s home court. Duke has also struggled against the spread recently against the Tar Heels, covering in just one of their last six matchups.
This isn’t a normal season, however, as UNC is on pace for their worst season since 2001-02. The Tar Heels have one of the worst defenses in the country, so expect Duke to put up a lot of points on Saturday.
North Carolina News & Notes
It’s been a down season for the Tar Heels, so much so that Saturday’s game marks the first time since 2015 that UNC is an underdog at home.
Sporting a 10-12 record on the season, along with an awful 3-8 tally within the ACC, UNC can rebound… but that’s about it. They sit outside the top-200 in both scoring offense and defense, which has resulted in the school losing seven of their last nine games — and 11 of their last 15.
They’ve also covered the spread in just one of their previous nine home games, but while things look bleak against No. 7 Duke, expect UNC to be fired up to face their rivals from 21 miles away — the Tar Heels are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 against the Blue Devils.
Betting Pick: DUKE -8
Yes, Duke-UNC is one of the biggest rivalries in sports, but this year the Tar Heels are exceptionally bad. Against any other team under .500, Duke would be a much bigger favorite. A 6.5-point spread seems too generous for me to not take Duke.
- Duke is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road.
- The UNDER has hit in the last 6 games in this matchup.
- North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
