Seminoles, Cardinals Bring Top-Tier Defenses to Louisville

It’s a battle of defense-first programs as Florida State visits Louisville in ACC action. The Cardinals rate slightly better in most major metrics and have covered the spread in five of their last seven meetings, making them an appealing play — even as seven-point favorites.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Louisville is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and in their last seven games against FSU, plus they rate better than the Seminoles in defense, rebounding and assists, so it’s no surprise they opened as seven-point home favorites. With both teams putting defense first, a low total was likely on tap, but it opened a little higher than expected at 133.5 points.

Florida State News & Notes

The 18th-seeded Seminoles have won 12 of their last 13 games, including two over ranked programs, but they are a little one-sided in how they earn their victories.

Florida State is 12th in the nation in turnovers forced, they lead the ACC in steals and they allow 63 points per game, good for 59th in the country. But offensively, the Seminoles are 103rd in points,198th in assists and 318th in the country in rebounding.

Guard M.J. Walker missed their previous game due to a hip injury and is questionable to play Saturday at Louisville. He’s one of three Seminoles to averaged in double figures, so if he cannot play again they will look to Devin Vassell and Trent Forrest to pick up the scoring slack.

It will be tough sledding against on Saturday, especially since Florida State has covered the spread just twice in their last seven games against Louisville. If they’re going to have any chance to pull off the upset, expect Vassell, Forrest and their pressuring defense to play a major role.

Louisville News & Notes

The Cardinals battled hard against rival Kentucky last Saturday, but they weren’t able to pull off the road win, falling 78-70 in overtime. While there is no shame in that result, Louisville can ask ‘what if’ considering star Jordan Nwora, who averages 20.2 points per game, finished with just eight points and the team as a whole made just nine of their 20 free throw attempts.

While the loss dropped Louisville from No. 3 to No. 7, they still have an elite defense, currently ranked 18th in the nation in opponent scoring and allowing the fifth-lowest opponent field-goal percentage.

Their staunch defense has allowed the Cardinals to cover the spread in five of their last seven games. With Nwora likely to rebound in a big way following his subpar performance against Kentucky, and the defense continuously making their opponents work hard for every point scored, Louisville looks primed to build upon their recent trend of going 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the ACC.

Betting Pick: Louisville -7

The Cardinals are built very similar to Florida State, except they’re better rebounders, they move the ball more and their defense is even tougher. With the advantage of being at home, I’ll take the Cardinals to cover.