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UNC Lost Just Two Conference Games, One of Them to Louisville

The Louisville Cardinals will be looking to channel whatever good juju they had going back on January 12 at the Dean Smith Center when they gave the Tar Heels one of their two conference losses this season, a shocking 21-point defeat on home court. North Carolina, the ACC’s No. 2 team, opens as a 7-point favorite tonight in Charlotte with the total at 153.

Louisville vs North Carolina Game Center

Standout Stats

  • These teams split the season series 1-1. In the Cardinals’ win, they shot 51.9 percent from the floor. In their loss, they shot 41.9 percent from the floor. Their conference average was 42.8 percent (sixth in the ACC) and they’ve been better than 41.8 percent just once in their last eight games.
  • UNC shot 34.5 percent in the loss on January 12 but shot 42 percent in the win on February 2. The Tar Heels’ conference average was 45.5 percent, No. 3 in the ACC.
  • UNC has won 14 of its 15 games since the loss at home to Louisville. Meanwhile, Louisville has lost six of its last nine games and is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games as an underdog of 7 points or less.
  • The Tar Heels are the No. 2 three-point shooting team in the ACC at 37.9 percent. UNC shot 25 percent from three-point land on February 2 and 13.6 percent on January 12. Those are two of their four worst marks of the season. However, ACC teams are shooting 31 percent from outside vs Louisville. I look at the two previous games as anomalies.
  • UNC had 49 more steals in conference play than Louisville (124-75).
  • UNC is 7-0 in its last seven games with an average winning margin of 14.9. This includes a nine-point win against Duke in its last game.
  • Louisville hasn’t played on back-to-back days yet this season and has not won two consecutive games since January 26 and January 30.

My Best Bet for Louisville vs UNC

UNC -7

The Tar Heels are the No. 3 team in the country and they’ve been playing like it with their only loss since January 12 coming against No. 2 Virginia. They’re also 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games, covering spreads of 7 or more points in six of those games.

At the same time, the Cardinals may have had their high point with the win vs UNC in January as their last four wins have come against Notre Dame (twice), Clemson and Virginia Tech.