The Sweet 16 arrives with college basketball's biggest names facing off for a chance at the Elite Eight.
Below, Tony Farmer, David Caraviello and I breakdown our expert picks for Thursday's Sweet 16 matchups.
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Nick's Pick: San Diego State +11
Matchup: San Diego State vs UConn
UConn look like world-beaters thus far. The March Madness National Championship favorites pummelled the Northwestern in the second round, racing out to a 40-18 first-half and destroying the Wildcats.
However, the San Diego State Aztecs provide a much different challenge. While this isnât the same roster that went all the way to the Championship game last season, San Diego State employs a disciplined, battle-tested group.
Donovan Clingan has been DOMINANT so far in UConn's rout of Stetson đ€#MarchMadness
â OutOfSightSportsđâąïž (@OOSSports) March 22, 2024
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The Aztecs have the size to go head-to-head with Donovan Clingan in the middle and have held opponents to 40% shooting on the season. Jaedon Ledee remains one of the game's most dangerous interior threats. He's got the scoring chops to cause problems for the Huskies down on the block. Plus, Brian Dutcherâs squad crashes the offensive glass (31.2% offensive rebounding rate), and are adept at creating turnovers (9.4% steal percentage). Take the Aztecs to cover the 11-point spread.
Nick's Pick: Alabama +4
Matchup: Alabama vs North Carolina
Alabama plays at one of the quickest paces in the nation, and has the scoring ability (7th in offensive efficiency) to keep this game close.
Senior guard Mark Sears is one of the greatest scoring threats in the country. He's a throwback scorer averaging over 21 points per game on 43% shooting from deep, and will be a challenging cover for even the vaunted North Carolina defense.
The Crimson Tide are also armed with the interior size to combat Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram. Expect Alabama to go bucket for bucket with the Tar Heels and cover the spread.
Tony's Pick: Clemson +7.5
Matchup: Clemson vs Arizona
Since February 18, these teams have been nearly identical on offense according to the advanced analytics from Bart Torvik. Clemsonâs adjusted offensive efficiency has been 116.7 since then, while Arizonaâs was 117.6. While Arizona does have the stronger defense over that span (91.2 vs. 95.4), itâs not enough to justify 7.5 points in this spot.
Both teams entered the tournament with a loss and breezed through Rounds 1 and 2, but I think Clemson is an underrated team which has had some unfortunate luck. From January 16 to February 17 they lost three games by 1 point (Vs. Duke, Virginia, and N.C. State) and another by 3 points in 2 OT (vs. Georgia Tech). The Tigers tend to keep things close and have only lost two games this season by more than 8 points.
Tony's Pick: Iowa State ML (-120)
Matchup: Iowa State vs Illinois
While everyone is focused on the the best KenPom offense in the country (Illinois) going up against the best KenPom defense in the country (Iowa State), the matchup to watch is Iowa Stateâs offense vs. Illinoisâ defense.
The Fighting Illini defense ranked 178th in the country according to Bart Torvik since Feb. 18 and it has several vulnerabilities. Illinois isnât a threat to create turnovers (360th in turnover %) and only seven teams in the country have allowed a higher portion (58%) of their offensive points allowed to come inside. Iowa State plays well inside with 54.4% of its points coming from 2-point plays. Look for Iowa Stateâs big men to have a nice day in the paint.
David's Pick: North Carolina -4
Matchup: Alabama vs North Carolina
The Crimson Tide may be able to score lots of points, but it gives up tons, tooâparticularly against elite teams. Alabama has had issues all season closing out games against Quad 1 opponents, a struggle evident in its nonconference slate: lost by eight to Clemson, lost by six to Purdue, lost by three to Creighton, lost by 13 to Arizona. That trend seems likely to continue against a North Carolina team thatâs covered five of its last seven.
David's Pick: Connecticut -11
Matchup: San Diego State vs UConn
Thatâs a big number for a Sweet 16 game, to be certain, but the Huskies are simply overpowering opponents with regularity. UConn has won by double-digits in eight of its last nine games, and has covered the spread in 11 of its last 13. The Aztecs have two standouts from last yearâs Final Four team in guard Lamont Butler and forward Jaedon Ledee, but have also covered just three of their past 10 outings, and are 1-4 against the spread versus power-conference foes.
