Though upsets of a No. 1 seed at the hand of the No. 16 seed have been more prevalent in recent years, don’t expect that to be the case in 2024. After all, No.16 seeds have just a 1.32 winning percentage in the NCAA Tournament. Until last year, those underdog number 16s had been in trouble. Fairleigh Dickinson’s unfathomable upset over the Purdue Boilermakers wasn’t the only 16 seed success last year. Though the other three matchups all ended in at least a double-digit defeat, three of the four 16 seeds covered the spread.
They’ve historically been overmatched, but No.16 seeds have covered the spread in seven of the past 12 opening round matchups with No. 1 seeds. But keep in mind, the No.16 has finished within 10 points of a top seed on only 10 occasions since 2001. Though they have little hope of victory, an ATS wager on the No.16 isn’t always a bad play.
Predictably, as the top four teams in the college basketball AP Poll, Houston, UConn, Purdue and North Carolina are the one seeds in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, and are near the top of the National Championship odds.
2024 1 vs 16 Seed Matchups
Check out our analysis of all the 1 v 16 seed matchups.
South: No. 1 Houston vs No. 16 Longwood
East: No. 1 UConn vs No. 16 Stetson
West: No. 1 North Carolina vs No. 16 Wagner
Midwest: No. 1 Purdue vs No. 16 Grambling
Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9
| #1 Seed | Score | #16 Seed | Score | Date | ATS Win | Win Seed | ATS Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 86 | Longwood | 46 | 2024-03-22 | Houston | 1 | 1 |
| UConn | 91 | Stetson | 52 | 2024-03-22 | UConn | 1 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 90 | Wagner | 62 | 2024-03-21 | North Carolina | 1 | 1 |
| Purdue | 78 | Grambling | 50 | 2024-03-22 | Purdue | 1 | 1 |
| Alabama | 96 | TAMU-CC | 75 | 2023-03-16 | TAMU-CC | 1 | 16 |
| Purdue | 58 | FDU | 63 | 2023-03-17 | FDU | 16 | 16 |
| Kansas | 96 | Howard | 68 | 2023-03-16 | Kansas | 1 | 1 |
| Houston | 63 | Northern Kentucky | 52 | 2023-03-17 | Northern Kentucky | 1 | 16 |
| Gonzaga | 93 | Georgia State | 72 | 2022-03-17 | Georgia State | 1 | 16 |
| Baylor | 85 | Norfolk State | 49 | 2022-03-17 | Baylor | 1 | 1 |
| Arizona | 87 | Wright State | 70 | 2022-03-18 | Wright State | 1 | 16 |
| Kansas | 83 | Texas Southern | 56 | 2022-03-17 | Kansas | 1 | 1 |
| Illinois | 78 | Drexel | 49 | 2021-03-19 | Illinois | 1 | 1 |
| Baylor | 79 | Hartford | 55 | 2021-03-19 | Hartford | 1 | 16 |
| Michigan | 82 | Texas Southern | 66 | 2021-03-20 | Texas Southern | 1 | 16 |
| Gonzaga | 98 | Norfolk State | 55 | 2021-03-20 | Gonzaga | 1 | 1 |
| Gonzaga | 87 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 49 | 2019-03-21 | Gonzaga | 1 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 88 | Iona | 73 | 2019-03-22 | Iona | 1 | 16 |
| Duke | 85 | North Dakota State | 62 | 2019-03-22 | Iona | 1 | 16 |
| Virginia | 71 | Gardner-Webb | 56 | 2019-03-22 | Gardner-Webb | 1 | 16 |
| Villanova | 87 | Radford | 61 | 2018-03-15 | Villanova | 1 | 1 |
| Kansas | 76 | Penn | 60 | 2018-03-15 | Kansas | 1 | 1 |
| Virginia | 54 | UMBC | 74 | 2018-03-16 | UMBC | 16 | 16 |
| Xavier | 102 | Texas Southern | 83 | 2018-03-16 | Texas Southern | 1 | 16 |
| Villanova | 76 | Mount St. Mary’s | 56 | 2017-03-16 | Villanova | 1 | 1 |
| Kansas | 100 | UC Davis | 62 | 2017-03-17 | Kansas | 1 | 1 |
| Gonzaga | 66 | South Dakota State | 46 | 2017-03-16 | South Dakota State | 1 | 16 |
| North Carolina | 103 | Texas Southern | 64 | 2017-03-16 | North Carolina | 1 | 1 |
| Virginia | 81 | Hampton | 45 | 2016-03-17 | Virginia | 1 | 1 |
| Oregon | 91 | Holy Cross | 52 | 2016-03-18 | Oregon | 1 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 83 | Florida Gulf Coast | 67 | 2016-03-17 | Florida Gulf Coast | 1 | 16 |
| Kansas | 105 | Austin Peay | 79 | 2016-03-17 | Kansas | 1 | 1 |
| Kentucky | 79 | Hampton | 56 | 2015-03-19 | Hampton | 1 | 16 |
| Wisconsin | 86 | Coastal Carolina | 72 | 2015-03-20 | Coastal Carolina | 1 | 16 |
| Villanova | 93 | Lafayette | 52 | 2015-03-19 | Villanova | 1 | 1 |
| Duke | 85 | Robert Morris | 56 | 2015-03-20 | Duke | 1 | 1 |
| Virginia | 70 | Coastal Carolina | 59 | 2014-03-21 | Coastal Carolina | 1 | 16 |
| Wichita State | 64 | Cal Poly | 37 | 2014-03-21 | Wichita State | 1 | 1 |
| Arizona | 68 | Weber State | 59 | 2014-03-21 | Weber State | 1 | 16 |
| Florida | 67 | Albany | 55 | 2014-03-20 | Albany | 1 | 16 |
| Kansas | 64 | Western Kentucky | 57 | 2013-03-22 | Western Kentucky | 1 | 16 |
| Indiana | 83 | James Madison | 62 | 2013-03-22 | James Madison | 1 | 16 |
| Louisville | 79 | North Carolina A&T | 48 | 2013-03-21 | Louisville | 1 | 1 |
| Gonzaga | 64 | Southern | 58 | 2013-03-21 | Southern | 1 | 16 |
| Michigan State | 89 | Long Island | 67 | 2012-03-16 | Michigan State | 1 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 77 | Vermont | 58 | 2012-03-16 | North Carolina | 1 | 1 |
| Kentucky | 81 | Western Kentucky | 66 | 2012-03-15 | Western Kentucky | 1 | 16 |
| Syracuse | 72 | UNC Asheville | 65 | 2012-03-15 | UNC Asheville | 1 | 16 |
| Kansas | 72 | Boston University | 53 | 2011-03-18 | Boston University | 1 | 16 |
| Ohio State | 75 | Texas-San Antonio | 46 | 2011-03-18 | Ohio State | 1 | 1 |
| Duke | 87 | Hampton | 45 | 2011-03-18 | Duke | 1 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh | 74 | UNC Asheville | 51 | 2011-03-17 | Pittsburgh | 1 | 1 |
| Syracuse | 79 | Vermont | 56 | 2010-03-19 | Syracuse | 1 | 1 |
| Duke | 73 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 44 | 2010-03-19 | Duke | 1 | 1 |
| Kansas | 90 | Lehigh | 74 | 2010-03-18 | Lehigh | 1 | 16 |
| Kentucky | 100 | East Tennessee State | 71 | 2010-03-18 | Kentucky | 1 | 1 |
| Louisville | 74 | Morehead State | 54 | 2009-03-20 | Morehead State | 1 | 16 |
| Pittsburgh | 72 | East Tennessee State | 62 | 2009-03-20 | East Tennessee State | 1 | 16 |
| Connecticut | 103 | Chattanooga | 47 | 2009-03-19 | Connecticut | 1 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 101 | Radford | 58 | 2009-03-19 | North Carolina | 1 | 1 |
| Memphis | 87 | Texas-Arlington | 63 | 2008-03-21 | Texas-Arlington | 1 | 16 |
| North Carolina | 113 | Mount St. Mary’s | 74 | 2008-03-21 | North Carolina | 1 | 1 |
| UCLA | 70 | Miss Valley State | 29 | 2008-03-20 | UCLA | 1 | 1 |
| Kansas | 85 | Portland State | 61 | 2008-03-20 | Kansas | 1 | 1 |
| Florida | 112 | Jackson State | 69 | 2007-03-16 | Florida | 1 | 1 |
| Kansas | 107 | Niagara | 67 | 2007-03-16 | Kansas | 1 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 86 | Eastern Kentucky | 65 | 2007-03-15 | Eastern Kentucky | 1 | 16 |
| Ohio State | 78 | Cent Conn State | 57 | 2007-03-15 | Ohio State | 1 | 1 |
| Connecticut | 72 | Albany | 59 | 2006-03-17 | Albany | 1 | 16 |
| Villanova | 58 | Monmouth | 45 | 2006-03-17 | Monmouth | 1 | 16 |
| Memphis | 94 | Oral Roberts | 78 | 2006-03-17 | Memphis | 1 | 1 |
| Duke | 70 | Southern | 54 | 2006-03-16 | Southern | 1 | 16 |
| Duke | 57 | Delaware State | 46 | 2005-03-18 | Delaware State | 1 | 16 |
| North Carolina | 96 | Oakland | 68 | 2005-03-18 | PUSH | 1 | |
| Illinois | 67 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 55 | 2005-03-17 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 1 | 16 |
| Washington | 88 | Montana | 77 | 2005-03-17 | Montana | 1 | 16 |
| Kentucky | 96 | Florida A&M | 76 | 2004-03-19 | Florida A&M | 1 | 16 |
| Duke | 96 | Alabama State | 61 | 2004-03-18 | Duke | 1 | 1 |
| Stanford | 71 | Texas-San Antonio | 45 | 2004-03-18 | Stanford | 1 | 1 |
| Saint Joseph’s | 82 | Liberty | 63 | 2004-03-18 | Liberty | 1 | 16 |
| Kentucky | 95 | IUPUI | 64 | 2003-03-21 | Kentucky | 1 | 1 |
| Texas | 82 | UNC Asheville | 61 | 2003-03-21 | UNC Asheville | 1 | 16 |
| Arizona | 80 | Vermont | 51 | 2003-03-20 | Arizona | 1 | 1 |
| Oklahoma | 71 | South Carolina State | 54 | 2003-03-20 | South Carolina State | 1 | 16 |
| Cincinnati | 90 | Boston University | 52 | 2002-03-15 | Cincinnati | 1 | 1 |
| Maryland | 85 | Siena | 70 | 2002-03-15 | Siena | 1 | 16 |
| Duke | 84 | Winthrop | 37 | 2002-03-14 | Duke | 1 | 1 |
| Kansas | 70 | Holy Cross | 59 | 2002-03-14 | Holy Cross | 1 | 16 |
| Illinois | 96 | Northwestern State | 54 | 2001-03-16 | Illinois | 1 | 1 |
| Michigan State | 69 | Alabama State | 35 | 2001-03-16 | Michigan State | 1 | 1 |
| Stanford | 89 | UNC Greensboro | 60 | 2001-03-15 | Stanford | 1 | 1 |
| Duke | 95 | Monmouth | 52 | 2001-03-15 | Duke | 1 | 1 |
| Duke | 82 | Lamar | 55 | 2000-03-17 | Lamar | 1 | 16 |
| Stanford | 84 | South Carolina State | 65 | 2000-03-17 | South Carolina State | 1 | 16 |
| Arizona | 71 | Jackson State | 47 | 2000-03-16 | Jackson State | 1 | 16 |
| Michigan State | 65 | Valparaiso | 38 | 2000-03-16 | Michigan State | 1 | 1 |
| Michigan State | 76 | Mount St. Mary’s | 53 | 1999-03-12 | Mount St. Mary’s | 1 | 16 |
| Duke | 99 | Florida A&M | 58 | 1999-03-12 | Florida A&M | 1 | 16 |
| Auburn | 80 | Winthrop | 41 | 1999-03-11 | Auburn | 1 | 1 |
| Connecticut | 91 | Texas-San Antonio | 66 | 1999-03-11 | Texas-San Antonio | 1 | 16 |
| Kansas | 110 | Prairie View A&M | 52 | 1998-03-13 | Kansas | 1 | 1 |
| Duke | 99 | Radford | 63 | 1998-03-13 | Duke | 1 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 88 | Navy | 52 | 1998-03-12 | North Carolina | 1 | 1 |
| Arizona | 99 | Nicholls State | 60 | 1998-03-12 | Arizona | 1 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 78 | Texas State | 46 | 1997-03-14 | Minnesota | 1 | 1 |
| Kentucky | 92 | Montana | 54 | 1997-03-13 | Kentucky | 1 | 1 |
| Kansas | 78 | Jackson State | 64 | 1997-03-13 | Jackson State | 1 | 16 |
| North Carolina | 82 | Fairfield | 74 | 1997-03-13 | Fairfield | 1 | 16 |
| Connecticut | 68 | Colgate | 59 | 1996-03-14 | Colgate | 1 | 16 |
| Massachusetts | 92 | Central Florida | 70 | 1996-03-14 | Central Florida | 1 | 16 |
| Kentucky | 110 | San Jose State | 72 | 1996-03-14 | Kentucky | 1 | 1 |
| Purdue | 73 | Western Carolina | 71 | 1996-03-14 | Western Carolina | 1 | 16 |
What Seed Has The Recent ATS Edge?
While 1 vs 16 first-round matchups have primarily been blowouts historically in March Madness, bettors have found little solace in backing the higher seed recently. Since 2014, No. 16 seeds have covered the spread 20 times in 36 games with 2014 and 2023 being banner years for 16 seeds as they covered three of four games.
Close Calls
Prior to Virginia’s 2018 debacle, the closest a No. 1 seed had ever come to being upset by a No. 16 seed came in 1989 when Georgetown edged Princeton 50-49. Two years later, Michigan State topped Murray State 75-71, and Purdue held off Western Carolina 73-71 in 1996. The top seed has captured 25 national titles overall dating back to 1985. Over the past 16 years, a No. 1 seed has won the NCAA championship 12 times, including Kansas’ 2022 triumph.
March Madness 1 vs 16 Betting History
Where can I bet on the 1 vs 16 seed March Madness game?
You can bet on the 1 vs 16 seed matchup of the NCAAB national championship tournament at most popular sites to bet on March Madness. Odds Shark has compiled a comprehensive list of the best March Madness betting sites with in-depth reviews, analysis, and perks of each site for experienced bettors and casual fans.
How do I bet on the 1 vs 16 seed March Madness game?
If you are researching how to bet on the 1 vs 16 seed March Madness matchup, look no further than Odds Shark. We have put together an expert How To Bet on March Madness Guide that outlines how to read odds, the different betting formats available, and some March Madness betting strategy.
When was the last time a 16 seed beat a 1 seed in March Madness?
In 2023, Fairleigh Dickinson beat No. 1 seed Purdue 63-58 to register the second 16 vs 1 upset in March Madness history. The first happened in 2018 when the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) toppled No. 1 seed Virginia 74-54.
