March Madness Matchups: 1 vs 16 Betting History & Trends

It was perhaps the best lock in all of sports — until it wasn’t. A No. 16 seed had never defeated a No. 1 seed in March Madness until UMBC shocked the world by toppling Virginia in 2018. Outside of that anomaly, there haven’t been too many close calls in the past number of years either. In fact, just eight times since 2001 has a No. 16 finished within 10 points of a top seed.

However, seven of those times have been within the last seven tournaments, with three No. 16 seeds covering the spread in the 2014 NCAA Tournament.

The top 1 seed has won 23 national titles since 1985.

In 2018, two 16 seeds kept it close, as Xavier failed to cover and Virginia lost outright to UMBC in what was arguably the biggest upset in NCAA basketball history. In 2019, Virginia trailed Gardner-Webb 36-30 at halftime but rallied in the second half to win 71-56. No other No. 16 seeds came within 15 points of the No. 1.

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What seed has the recent ATS edge?

While 1 vs 16 first-round matchups have primarily been blowouts historically in March Madness, bettors have found little solace in backing the higher seed recently. Since 2014, No. 16 seeds have covered the spread 13 times in 24 games with 2014 being a banner year for 16 seeds as they covered three of four games.

Close calls

Prior to Virginia’s 2018 debacle, the closest a No. 1 seed had ever come to being upset by a No. 16 seed came in 1989 when Georgetown edged Princeton 50-49. Two years later, Michigan State topped Murray State 75-71, and Purdue held off Western Carolina 73-71 in 1996.

The top seed has captured 23 national titles overall dating back to 1985. Over the past 15 years, a No. 1 seed has won the NCAA championship 10 times, including Virginia’s 2019 triumph.

Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9