March Madness Matchups: 2 vs 15 Betting History & Trends

In 10 March Madness brackets between 2002 and 2011, no No. 15 seed had upset a No. 2 seed. But since 2012, it has happened on four occasions, throwing fear into bettors and destroying countless brackets.

The most recent happened in 2016, as little-known Middle Tennessee knocked off No. 2 Michigan State 90-81 as a 16.5-point underdog.

The 15 seed has gone 53-42-1 ATS against the 2 seed since 1996.

But it was Norfolk State that pulled off the biggest 2 vs 15 upset in modern March Madness betting history, taking out Missouri 86-84 as a 21-point underdog in 2012. On the same day, Lehigh defeated Duke 75-70 as an 11-point underdog. Ironically, it was No. 7 seed Florida that ended Norfolk State’s run in the second round with an 84-50 victory as a 14-point favorite. Lehigh fell to No. 10 seed Xavier 70-58 in the second round as a 4-point underdog.

Only four other times in NCAA Tournament history prior to 2012 has there been an upset with a No. 15 seed defeating a No. 2. Richmond was the first to accomplish the feat in 1991 with a 73-69 victory against Syracuse. Steve Nash’s Santa Clara team did it two years later with a 64-61 win over Arizona and then Coppin State posted the largest margin of victory ever for a No. 15 by routing South Carolina 78-65 in 1997. Four years after that, Hampton took out Iowa State by the smallest margin for a No. 15, 58-57.

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Who has the betting edge in the 2 vs 15 matchup?

Backing the lower seed has been the way to go in the No. 2 vs No. 15 matchup as the No. 15 seed has gone 53-42-1 ATS since 1996. Since 2008, however, spread betting in this matchup has been a virtual coin flip with No. 15 having a minuscule 25-22-1 ATS edge. 

Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9