March Madness Seeds: 2 vs 15

In 10 March Madness brackets between 2002 and 2011, no No. 15 seed had upset a No. 2 seed. But since 2012, it has happened on four occasions, throwing fear into bettors and destroying countless brackets.
The most recent happened in 2016, as little-known Middle Tennessee knocked off No. 2 Michigan State 90-81 as a 16.5-point underdog.
The 15 seed has gone 53-42-1 ATS against the 2 seed since 1996.
But it was Norfolk State that pulled off the biggest 2 vs 15 upset in modern March Madness betting history, taking out Missouri 86-84 as a 21-point underdog in 2012. On the same day, Lehigh defeated Duke 75-70 as an 11-point underdog. Ironically, it was No. 7 seed Florida that ended Norfolk State’s run in the second round with an 84-50 victory as a 14-point favorite. Lehigh fell to No. 10 seed Xavier 70-58 in the second round as a 4-point underdog.
Only four other times in NCAA Tournament history prior to 2012 has there been an upset with a No. 15 seed defeating a No. 2. Richmond was the first to accomplish the feat in 1991 with a 73-69 victory against Syracuse. Steve Nash’s Santa Clara team did it two years later with a 64-61 win over Arizona and then Coppin State posted the largest margin of victory ever for a No. 15 by routing South Carolina 78-65 in 1997. Four years after that, Hampton took out Iowa State by the smallest margin for a No. 15, 58-57.
Who has the betting edge in the 2 vs 15 matchup?
Backing the lower seed has been the way to go in the No. 2 vs No. 15 matchup as the No. 15 seed has gone 53-42-1 ATS since 1996. Since 2008, however, spread betting in this matchup has been a virtual coin flip with No. 15 having a minuscule 25-22-1 ATS edge.
Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9
#2 Seed | Score | #15 Seed | Score | Date | ATS Win | Win Seed | ATS Seed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kentucky | 79 | Abilene Christian | 44 | 2019-03-21 | Kentucky | 2 | 2 |
Michigan | 74 | Montana | 55 | 2019-03-21 | Michigan | 2 | 2 |
Tennessee | 77 | Colgate | 70 | 2019-03-22 | Colgate | 2 | 15 |
Michigan State | 76 | Bradley | 65 | 2019-03-21 | Bradley | 2 | 15 |
Duke | 89 | Iona | 67 | 2018-03-15 | Duke | 2 | 2 |
North Carolina | 84 | Lipscomb | 66 | 2018-03-16 | Lipscomb | 2 | 15 |
Purdue | 74 | CS Fullerton | 48 | 2018-03-16 | Purdue | 2 | 2 |
Cincinnati | 68 | Georgia State | 53 | 2018-03-16 | Cincinnati | 2 | 2 |
Duke | 87 | Troy | 65 | 2017-03-17 | Duke | 2 | 2 |
Louisville | 78 | Jacksonville St | 63 | 2017-03-17 | Jacksonville St | 2 | 15 |
Arizona | 100 | North Dakota | 82 | 2017-03-16 | PUSH | 2 | PUSH |
Kentucky | 79 | Northern Kentucky | 70 | 2017-03-17 | Northern Kentucky | 2 | 15 |
Michigan State | 81 | Middle Tennessee | 90 | 2016-03-18 | Middle Tennessee | 15 | 15 |
Oklahoma | 82 | CSU Bakersfield | 68 | 2016-03-18 | CSU Bakersfield | 2 | 15 |
Xavier | 71 | Weber State | 53 | 2016-03-18 | Xavier | 2 | 2 |
Villanova | 86 | UNC Asheville | 56 | 2016-03-18 | Villanova | 2 | 2 |
Kansas | 75 | New Mexico St | 56 | 2015-03-20 | Kansas | 2 | 2 |
Arizona | 93 | Texas Southern | 72 | 2015-03-19 | Texas Southern | 2 | 15 |
Gonzaga | 86 | North Dakota St | 76 | 2015-03-20 | North Dakota St | 2 | 15 |
Virginia | 79 | Belmont | 67 | 2015-03-20 | Belmont | 2 | 15 |
Kansas | 80 | Eastern Kentucky | 69 | 2014-03-21 | Eastern Kentucky | 2 | 15 |
Villanova | 73 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 53 | 2014-03-20 | Villanova | 2 | 2 |
Michigan | 57 | Wofford | 40 | 2014-03-20 | Michigan | 2 | 2 |
Wisconsin | 75 | American | 35 | 2014-03-20 | Wisconsin | 2 | 2 |
Ohio State | 95 | Iona | 70 | 2013-03-22 | Ohio State | 2 | 2 |
Georgetown | 68 | Florida Gulf Coast | 78 | 2013-03-22 | Florida Gulf Coast | 15 | 15 |
Miami | 78 | Pacific | 49 | 2013-03-22 | Miami | 2 | 2 |
Duke | 73 | Albany | 61 | 2013-03-22 | Albany | 2 | 15 |
Kansas | 65 | Detroit | 50 | 2012-03-16 | Kansas | 2 | 2 |
Duke | 70 | Lehigh | 75 | 2012-03-16 | Lehigh | 15 | 15 |
Missouri | 84 | Norfolk State | 86 | 2012-03-16 | Norfolk State | 15 | 15 |
Ohio State | 78 | Loyola | 59 | 2012-03-15 | Ohio State | 2 | 2 |
North Carolina | 102 | Long Island | 87 | 2011-03-18 | Long Island | 2 | 15 |
Notre Dame | 69 | Akron | 56 | 2011-03-18 | Akron | 2 | 15 |
Florida | 79 | Santa Barbara | 51 | 2011-03-17 | Florida | 2 | 2 |
San Diego State | 68 | Northern Colorado | 50 | 2011-03-17 | San Diego State | 2 | 2 |
Ohio State | 68 | Santa Barbara | 51 | 2010-03-19 | Santa Barbara | 2 | 15 |
West Virginia | 77 | Morgan State | 50 | 2010-03-19 | West Virginia | 2 | 2 |
Kansas State | 82 | North Texas | 62 | 2010-03-18 | Kansas State | 2 | 2 |
Villanova | 73 | Robert Morris | 70 | 2010-03-18 | Robert Morris | 2 | 15 |
Michigan State | 77 | Robert Morris | 62 | 2009-03-20 | Michigan State | 2 | 2 |
Oklahoma | 82 | Morgan State | 54 | 2009-03-19 | Oklahoma | 2 | 2 |
Duke | 86 | Binghamton | 62 | 2009-03-19 | Duke | 2 | 2 |
Memphis | 81 | CS Northridge | 70 | 2009-03-19 | CS Northridge | 2 | 15 |
Texas | 74 | Austin Peay | 54 | 2008-03-21 | Texas | 2 | 2 |
Georgetown | 66 | UMBC | 47 | 2008-03-21 | Georgetown | 2 | 2 |
Tennessee | 72 | American | 57 | 2008-03-21 | American | 2 | 15 |
Duke | 71 | Belmont | 70 | 2008-03-20 | Belmont | 2 | 15 |
Wisconsin | 76 | Texas A&M C.C. | 63 | 2007-03-16 | Wisconsin | 2 | 2 |
Memphis | 73 | North Texas | 58 | 2007-03-16 | North Texas | 2 | 15 |
UCLA | 70 | Weber State | 42 | 2007-03-15 | UCLA | 2 | 2 |
Georgetown | 80 | Belmont | 55 | 2007-03-15 | Georgetown | 2 | 2 |
Texas | 60 | Pennsylvania | 52 | 2006-03-17 | Pennsylvania | 2 | 15 |
Ohio State | 70 | Davidson | 62 | 2006-03-17 | Davidson | 2 | 15 |
UCLA | 78 | Belmont | 44 | 2006-03-16 | UCLA | 2 | 2 |
Tennessee | 63 | Winthrop | 61 | 2006-03-16 | Winthrop | 2 | 15 |
Connecticut | 77 | Central Florida | 71 | 2005-03-18 | Central Florida | 2 | 15 |
Oklahoma State | 63 | Southeastern Louisiana | 50 | 2005-03-18 | Southeastern Louisiana | 2 | 15 |
Wake Forest | 70 | Chattanooga | 54 | 2005-03-17 | Chattanooga | 2 | 15 |
Kentucky | 72 | Eastern Kentucky | 64 | 2005-03-17 | Eastern Kentucky | 2 | 15 |
Mississippi State | 85 | Monmouth | 52 | 2004-03-19 | Mississippi State | 2 | 2 |
Oklahoma State | 75 | Eastern Washington | 56 | 2004-03-19 | Oklahoma State | 2 | 2 |
Gonzaga | 76 | Valparaiso | 49 | 2004-03-18 | Gonzaga | 2 | 2 |
Connecticut | 70 | Vermont | 53 | 2004-03-18 | Vermont | 2 | 15 |
Pittsburgh | 87 | Wagner | 61 | 2003-03-21 | Pittsburgh | 2 | 2 |
Florida | 85 | Sam Houston State | 55 | 2003-03-21 | Florida | 2 | 2 |
Wake Forest | 76 | East Tennessee State | 73 | 2003-03-21 | East Tennessee State | 2 | 15 |
Kansas | 64 | Utah State | 61 | 2003-03-20 | Utah State | 2 | 15 |
Oklahoma | 71 | Illinois-Chicago | 63 | 2002-03-15 | Illinois-Chicago | 2 | 15 |
Connecticut | 78 | Hampton | 67 | 2002-03-15 | Hampton | 2 | 15 |
Oregon | 81 | Montana | 62 | 2002-03-14 | Montana | 2 | 15 |
Alabama | 86 | Florida Atlantic | 78 | 2002-03-14 | Florida Atlantic | 2 | 15 |
Arizona | 101 | Eastern Illinois | 76 | 2001-03-16 | Arizona | 2 | 2 |
North Carolina | 70 | Princeton | 48 | 2001-03-16 | North Carolina | 2 | 2 |
Kentucky | 72 | Holy Cross | 68 | 2001-03-15 | Holy Cross | 2 | 15 |
Iowa State | 57 | Hampton | 58 | 2001-03-15 | Hampton | 15 | 15 |
Temple | 73 | Lafayette | 47 | 2000-03-17 | Temple | 2 | 2 |
Cincinnati | 64 | UNC Wilmington | 47 | 2000-03-17 | UNC Wilmington | 2 | 15 |
St. John’s | 61 | Northern Arizona | 56 | 2000-03-16 | Northern Arizona | 2 | 15 |
Iowa State | 88 | Cent Conn State | 78 | 2000-03-16 | Cent Conn State | 2 | 15 |
Utah | 80 | Arkansas State | 58 | 1999-03-12 | Utah | 2 | 2 |
Miami | 75 | Lafayette | 54 | 1999-03-12 | Miami | 2 | 2 |
Maryland | 82 | Valparaiso | 60 | 1999-03-11 | Maryland | 2 | 2 |
Stanford | 69 | Alcorn State | 57 | 1999-03-11 | Alcorn State | 2 | 15 |
Purdue | 95 | Delaware | 56 | 1998-03-13 | Purdue | 2 | 2 |
Kentucky | 82 | South Carolina State | 67 | 1998-03-13 | South Carolina State | 2 | 15 |
Cincinnati | 65 | Northern Arizona | 62 | 1998-03-12 | Northern Arizona | 2 | 15 |
Connecticut | 93 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 85 | 1998-03-12 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 2 | 15 |
Duke | 71 | Murray State | 68 | 1997-03-14 | Murray State | 2 | 15 |
Utah | 75 | Navy | 61 | 1997-03-14 | Navy | 2 | 15 |
South Carolina | 65 | Coppin State | 78 | 1997-03-14 | Coppin State | 15 | 15 |
UCLA | 109 | Charleston Southern | 75 | 1997-03-13 | UCLA | 2 | 2 |
Cincinnati | 66 | UNC Greensboro | 61 | 1996-03-15 | UNC Greensboro | 2 | 15 |
Georgetown | 93 | Miss Valley State | 56 | 1996-03-15 | Georgetown | 2 | 2 |
Kansas | 92 | South Carolina State | 54 | 1996-03-15 | Kansas | 2 | 2 |
Wake Forest | 64 | Northeast Louisiana | 50 | 1996-03-15 | Northeast Louisiana | 2 | 15 |