March Madness Matchups: 2 vs 15 Betting History & Trends

In 10 March Madness brackets between 2002 and 2011, no No. 15 seed had upset a No. 2 seed. But since 2012, it has happened on seven occasions, throwing fear into bettors and destroying countless brackets.

This year saw No. 15 Princeton shockingly eliminate the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats, who were among the top 10 for national championship odds (+1600) pre-tournament. The Wildcats entered the contest as heavy -1100 favorites, but it ended up being the Tigers who cashed in the +700 ML and covered the +14 spread in a 59-55 win.

PRINCETON WITH A SPECTACULAR UPSET WIN VS. #2 SEED ARIZONA. GREAT EFFORT DOWN THE STRETCH FOR THE TIGERS OF PRINCETON. 😳 #MarchMadness #NCAATournament pic.twitter.com/QxBWgjg4tL

— Get Your Game On (@GetYourGameOnP) March 16, 2023

In 2021, little-known Oral Roberts knocked off No. 2 Ohio State 75-72 as a whopping 16-point underdog. St. Peter’s was the Cinderella squad last year, toppling Kentucky as an 18.5-point underdog and cashing a +1000 moneyline. The Peacocks soared through the bracket all the way to the Elite Eight, where they got crushed by North Carolina. Still, there was magic in the air around that 15 spot. 

The 15 seed has gone 59-48-1 ATS against the 2 seed since 1996.

It was Norfolk State that pulled off the biggest 2 vs 15 upset in modern March Madness betting history, taking out Missouri 86-84 as a 21-point underdog in 2012. On the same day, Lehigh defeated Duke 75-70 as an 11-point underdog. Ironically, it was No. 7 seed Florida that ended Norfolk State’s run in the second round with an 84-50 victory as a 14-point favorite. Lehigh fell to No. 10 seed Xavier 70-58 in the second round as a 4-point underdog.

Only four other times in NCAA Tournament history prior to 2012 had there been an upset with a No. 15 seed defeating a No. 2. Richmond was the first to accomplish the feat in 1991 with a 73-69 victory against Syracuse.

Steve Nash’s Santa Clara team did it two years later with a 64-61 win over Arizona and then Coppin State posted the largest margin of victory ever for a No. 15 by routing South Carolina 78-65 in 1997. Four years after that, Hampton took out Iowa State by the smallest margin for a No. 15, 58-57.

Who Has The Betting Edge In The 2 vs 15 matchup?

Backing the lower seed has been the way to go in the No. 2 vs No. 15 matchup as the No. 15 seed has gone 59-48-1 ATS since 1996. Since 2008, however, spread betting in this matchup has been a virtual coin flip with No. 15 having a minuscule 31-28-1 ATS edge. 

Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9