March Madness Matchups: 8 vs 9 Betting History & Trends

You would think the No. 8 vs No. 9 March Madness matchup would be the most even betting situation in the bracket. But over the last four tournaments, it’s been dominated by the No. 9 seed, going 10-6 SU and ATS in 16 elimination-round games.

In 2021, the No. 8 seeds went 3-1 SU and ATS but what was most surprising about those matchups was that three of the four games were decided by double digits. That included the No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers defeating No. 8 North Carolina by a score of 85-62. However, the trend favoring No. 9 seeds returned last season, with the lower-seeded teams going 3-1 SU and ATS – though the biggest spread was 3.5 points, which Memphis covered in a 64-53 win over No. 8 Boise State.

Should You Be Betting the No. 8 or No. 9 seed?

In the history of the NCAA Tournament, eight No. 8 seeds have advanced to the Final Four overall, including a record two in 2000 (North Carolina and Wisconsin), neither of which made it to the national title game. Last season, the Tar Heels pushed past the Final Four, defeating Duke 81-77 to reach the national championship before falling to Kansas 72-69. Only two No. 9 seeds have ever reached the Final Four – Pennsylvania in 1979 and Wichita State in 2013 – but neither went on to play for the championship.

This year saw two upsets when No. 9 Auburn eliminated No. 8 Iowa in an 85-75 finish. Likewise, No. 9 Florida Atlantic crept past No. 8 Memphis in a nail-biting 66-65 victory. 2022 saw three upsets, including No. 9 TCU’s 27-point blowout of No. 8 Seton Hall. The underdogs like to keep things close or go full tilt consistently to cash in their lines. 

HORNED FROGS ARE MOVING ON 🐸

(9) TCU takes down (8) Seton Hall, 69-42, to advance to the next round #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/KwVyWmEHbD

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 19, 2022

No. 8 vs No. 9 Betting History

In 2015, all four No. 8 seeds won, but only Oregon and San Diego State covered the closing spread. Only NC State managed to get past the second round, but the Wolfpack got bounced just one round later than their eighth-seeded counterparts.

Going back a few years, No. 8 Butler made it all the way to the national championship game in 2011, one of five times that has ever happened. In 2014, Kentucky got that far as well and closed as a 2.5-point favorite against No. 7 seed Connecticut in a 60-54 loss. In 1980, UCLA was a No. 8 seed and lost to No. 2 Louisville. And the 1985 Villanova team upset No. 1 Georgetown to win it all, becoming the lowest seed to ever win the NCAA title, which is still the case today.

There was an anomaly during the 2016 bracket, as all four No. 8 seeds closed as pups against No. 9. Though none of those lines got any higher than 3.5 points, it was interesting to see the supposedly better team as an underdog in each outing. As one might expect, all of those outings were close with three victories coming by seven points or less. Ultimately, it didn’t matter as every winner of this matchup got bounced in the second round against a No. 1 seed.

Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9