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Slumping Purdue looks to avoid third straight loss vs No. 23 Maryland

Maryland vs Purdue Betting Odds

The Purdue Boilermakers return to the Mackey Arena playing their third straight ranked team as the No. 23 Maryland Terrapins pay a visit for a Big Ten matchup. Purdue has won each of the last four meetings against Maryland, including both home-and-away games in last year’s season series, and it is an 8-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total opening at 149 points.

Shark Bites
  • Maryland is 0-4 SU in its last four games vs Purdue (avg. losing margin: 4.5).
  • Purdue is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the eight games both teams have played this season.

Maryland vs Purdue Game Center

Terrapins led by a strong frontcourt

Maryland bounced back from its first loss of the season, a 76-71 setback to then-No. 4 Virginia last week, with a 66-59 triumph over Penn State in its conference-opening game. The Terrapins have a pair of young forwards who have been chipping in mightily as sophomore Bruno Fernando is averaging 15.4 points and 10 rebounds per game, while freshman Jalen Smith is adding 12.6 points and 7.3 boards per game. With these strong performing young guns, it should come as no surprise that 57.3 percent of Maryland’s points come from two-point range, the 33rd-highest percentage in the nation, but only 23.7 percent of its points are coming from beyond the arc, the 34th-lowest percentage.

Additionally, their big men do a great job creating second chances as well as limiting their opponent’s second opportunities as the Terrapins grab the 15th-most rebounds per game at 42.2, including the 26th-most offensive boards at 11.4. The big area of concern for Maryland is its lack of ball control. The team is averaging 14 turnovers per game, which is the 151st-most in college basketball, and over its last three games that has risen to an average of 16.7 turnovers per game.

Boilermakers looking to end their losing slide

For the first time this season, Purdue finds itself on a two-game losing slide and for the first time since the last week of November last season it finds itself not ranked inside the Top 25, a streak that spanned 19 polls. Overall, the Boilermakers are 5-3 this season with each of their losses coming against ranked teams, most recently suffering a narrow 73-72 defeat to then-No. 15 Florida State and then losing 76-57 to then-No. 7 Michigan, both on the road. Unlike Maryland, which relies upon a strong frontcourt, Purdue is led by a couple of sharp-shooting, experienced guards in senior Ryan Cline and junior Carsen Edwards.

Cline is leading the team by shooting 45.6 percent from three-point range and is second on the team in points per game at 15.3. Meanwhile, Edwards leads the team with 24.4 points per game and is shooting 38.2 percent from long distance as the pair make up the third-highest scoring duo in the nation at 39.6 ppg. Overall, 43.5 percent of Purdue’s points come from triples, which is the sixth-highest percentage in the nation, although that figure drops to 38.4 percent at home. Maryland allows the 101st-most three-point attempts per game, while Purdue takes the eighth-most trey attempts per game at 30.1, so there should be plenty of opportunities for the Boilermakers to score.

Should you be on the UNDER tonight?

Both teams have the UNDER trending in the early stages of the season and Bovada has the total opening at 149 points. The total has gone UNDER in five of eight games this season for both Purdue and Maryland with the Boilermakers averaging a combined score of 148.13 and Terrapins games averaging 147.13. Meanwhile, of the six total games between Maryland and Purdue, four went UNDER, with tonight’s total of 149 matching the highest total they’ve had against each other, and they’ve had an average combined score of 144.33. Lastly, both teams rank in the top 100 in fewest points against per game with the Terrapins giving up 66.4 points per game and the Boilermakers limiting their opponents to 68 ppg. With this being the first conference game for Purdue, and Maryland’s first conference game going well UNDER 149 points, I think tonight’s UNDER should come through too.

My take on Maryland vs Purdue

I like the Terrapins +8 in tonight’s game. Although Purdue has won four straight games over Maryland, the average winning margin was 4.5 and it has never beaten the Terrapins by more than eight points. Meanwhile, Purdue is just 1-3-2 ATS vs Maryland since 2015. Both teams should be able to put their offensive skills to the test as the Terrapins don’t defend the three-ball well, while the Boilermakers are letting their opponents shoot 49 percent from inside the arc. I think the biggest factor may come down to rebounding and second chances, an area in which Maryland is far superior to Purdue, and I think that will keep this game close and the Terrapins will cover the 8-point spread.