Both the Auburn Tigers and New Mexico State Aggies had plenty of success on the offensive side of the basketball court this season, as both teams scored more than 78 points per game. Auburn opens as a 6.5-point betting favorite with the total at 143 after winning the SEC tournament convincingly with an 84-64 win over Tennessee. No. 5 seeds were 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in last year’s NCAA Tournament.
New Mexico State vs Auburn Game Center
No. 5 vs No. 12 March Madness History
Standout Stats
- New Mexico State played in a very weak Western Athletic Conference and won the tournament championship game by 32 points. The Aggies squeaked out a couple of wins over the Pac-12’s second-worst team, Washington State.
- Auburn finished the year as the No. 14-ranked team in the NCAA on the strength of winning nine of its last 10 games. The Tigers have two wins over No. 6 Tennessee, the second one culminating a four-day streak of wins vs Missouri, South Carolina and Florida.
- The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and the loss came via the hook in a 65-62 win over Florida. Meanwhile, New Mexico State is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games.
- The Aggies have been an underdog just three times this season, going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS vs New Mexico, Kansas and Grand Canyon. The straight-up loss was by three points to Kansas as a 14.5-point dog.
- Auburn is 20-2 SU and 14-7-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 points or more. It’s 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 6 points or less. Going back in the Odds Shark database, Auburn hasn’t lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since 1999.
- New Mexico State has the No. 10 floor percentage in the country at 52.2 percent. Auburn is 55th at 49.6 percent. Both teams are also in the top 50 for opponent floor percentage, again keeping in mind Auburn did this in the SEC.
- Both teams are undefeated on a neutral court this season: New Mexico State is 3-0, Auburn is 4-0.
My Best Bet for New Mexico State vs Auburn
Auburn -6.5
The Tigers just won the SEC tournament while the Aggies have waltzed through the WAC. I’m backing Auburn all the way in this game.
For me, the success and offensive numbers that New Mexico State has compiled are inflated as opposed to the earned numbers of the Tigers. These teams have similar numbers all through the season but Auburn compiled them in a better conference. I think Auburn’s three-point proficiency will help separate the score early on and I may even consider Auburn -3.5 1st half.
