The No. 11 Michigan State Spartans begin a two-game homestand by welcoming the Ohio State Buckeyes to the Breslin Center. After a three-game slide to close out January and open February, Michigan State finds itself on a two-game winning streak, while Ohio State looks to rebound after its three-game winning streak was snapped on Thursday. The Spartans topped the Buckeyes in early January and are a 12.5-point favorite in today’s game with the total Sportsbook at 137 points.
- Michigan State is 9-3 SU and ATS in its last 12 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Michigan State’s last 13 games.
- Michigan State averages the 13th-most points per game in the nation this season. (81.3)
Ohio State vs Michigan State Game Center
Spartans finding Stability after Key Injury
Just a few weeks ago I was one of the people banging the drum of a Michigan State futures bet as it was absolutely rolling with a 10-2 record before junior guard Joshua Langford went down with a season-ending injury. The Spartans continued to play well to an 18-2 record before a three-game slide to begin February but now has picked up back-to-back wins.
The offense has definitely slowed since the injury to Langford as Michigan State was averaging 87.62 points per game, but has poured in just 74.5 ppg since he's been out of the lineup, topping 80 points just three times over that 12-game span. Granted some of this can be explained with tougher conference opponents but he’s definitely missed out there. The Spartans are a strong shooting team that is dangerous inside and outside of the arc, ranking 20th with a 38.6 shooting percentage from downtown while hitting 55.6 percent from two-point range ranking 19th.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Spartans have done quite well, limiting their opponents to 66.7 points per game which are the 53rd-fewest in college basketball and that dips to 63.1 points per game at home. They do especially well restricting points inside the arc, holding their foes to a measly 40.6 shooting percentage from two-point range ranking second in the NCAA and that falls to 36.8 percent at the Breslin Center.
Buckeyes are Struggling to find offense this year
Ohio State showed its first glimpse of success in the Big Ten through the early stages of February, rattling off three straight wins, but had that streak snapped on Thursday when it fell 63-56 to Illinois. The Buckeyes opened conference play with consecutive wins, but then dropped five straight from early to late January.
Putting points on the board have come with their difficulties for the Buckeyes this season as they are chipping in an average of 71.8 points per game ranking 182nd which falls to 65.2 ppg on the road. They have a slow pace of play that results in just 54.2 shots taken per game which are the 32nd-fewest in the nation, but they hit 45.6 percent of their shots which ranks 99th.
What Ohio State lacks in offense it makes up for on defense as it surrenders the 27th-fewest points per game in college basketball at 64.7, which actually dips to 62.4 ppg on the road. It does a particularly good job inside the arc, holding its opponents to a 46 shooting percentage which is rated at 33rd and again that falls to 43.8 percent in away games.
Should you be on the UNDER?
Both Michigan State and Ohio State have done well defensively this year and Sportsbook has today’s total Sportsbook at 137 points. The Spartans have been on an UNDER tear recently, hitting the UNDER in eight of their last 10 games with only three games going OVER 137 points.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have gone UNDER in seven on their last 10 games with three games going OVER 137 points. However, these two teams tipped off at Value City Arena in early January and played to a combined score of 163, well over tonight’s total. I think Michigan State has really clamped down defensively since then, while Ohio State has only scored 70 or more points in three of the following 10 games, I think the UNDER is the bet to make.
My take on Ohio State vs Michigan State
I like the Spartans to cover the 12.5-point spread. Michigan State has been terrific at the Breslin Center this year going 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS with an average winning margin of 26.91 with no win being settled by fewer than 14 points. Meanwhile, Ohio State has an average losing margin of 9.67 in its three true road defeats, including two games being lost by double digits.
The Buckeyes are only scoring 65.2 points per game on the road and the Spartans are restricting their opponents to just 63.1 ppg at home. Additionally, Michigan State is averaging 76.2 points per game at home without Langford.
