The Baylor Bears (15-1 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) had the nation’s longest winning streak at 21-0 SU and 14-6-1 ATS snapped on Tuesday night in a 65-62 loss at home the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Bears will try to start up a new winning streak this Saturday night at home against the Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-7 SU, 5-10 ATS).
Opening Odds Analysis
The Bears opened as 16-point favorites in this Big 12 matchup and have since been bet down to Baylor -14. The total has seen far less movement, settling in at 142 points after opening at 141.5 points. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five games between Baylor and Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State News & Notes
Texas Tech carried the momentum of its upset win over Baylor into a blowout win over Oklahoma State, cruising to a 78-57 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night. Oklahoma State is now 1-4 SU and ATS over its last four games with all four of those losses coming by double digits. After opening the season with a 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS record, the Cowboys are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS since the beginning of December.
Generating offense has been Oklahoma State’s primary issue of late. Over the team’s current five-game slump, the Cowboys have averaged only 61 points per game. This offense sorely misses Cade Cunningham and his 20.1 points per game from last season. Bryce Williams (11.1 points per game) and Avery Anderson III (10.8 PPG) are the only two players on the team averaging more than 8.5 PPG.
Baylor News & Notes
Baylor had hit an ATS slump in recent weeks with a 1-3 ATS record over its last four games heading into Tuesday’s game against Texas Tech, but the Bears had won those four games by an average margin of victory of 15.8 points per game. James Akinjo and Adam Flagler each scored 17 points in the loss while the rest of the team combined for only 28 points. The Bears’ 62 points against Texas Tech was the offense’s second lowest-scoring game of the season behind Baylor’s 57-36 win over Villanova.
With an offense that ranks 20th in the nation averaging 81.5 points per game and a defense that also ranks 20th allowing 59.8 points per game, this Baylor squad isn’t going to lose straight up very often. But at 1-4 ATS over its last five games, sportsbooks are obviously making bettors pay a premium in points to back them.
How Oklahoma State Will Cover
Oklahoma State is allowing 66.9 points per game on defense this season and hadn’t suffered a loss by more than 11 points before Thursday. This offense can’t hang with Baylor’s, so the key to a cover will be a strong performance in the defensive zone.
How Baylor Will Cover
A slumping team with a modest offense like the Cowboys should be just what the doctor ordered for Baylor coming off of a disappointing loss. The Bears just need to avoid a let-down performance after the loss and to play their best game this Saturday to cover this large spread.
Computer Pick: Baylor -14
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