Only three No. 3 seeds have been upset in the last four years but the No. 14 seeds have kept things close and actually hold the edge at the betting window. With that, should bettors be wary of taking the Purdue Boilermakers as a 12-point favorite vs the Old Dominion Monarchs? Does it make more sense to take a side of the 129-point total? Let’s examine:
Old Dominion vs Purdue Game Center
Standout Stats
- Purdue and Old Dominion have played just once before: a 61-39 Purdue win on November 21, 2015.
- Purdue is 2-0 SU and ATS in its last two first-round appearances. The Boilermakers were the No. 2 seed last year and No. 4 in 2017.
- This is Old Dominion’s first tournament game since 2011. The Monarchs are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in five first-round games since 1997.
- Purdue is the No. 13-ranked team in the latest AP Top 25, down two spots from last week after a Big Ten tournament loss to Minnesota, the second time the Boilermakers lost to the Golden Gophers in 10 days.
- Old Dominion holds wins over VCU, Syracuse and twice over UAB, including in the semifinals of the Conference USA tournament. The Monarchs then beat Western Kentucky for the third time this season in the tournament final.
- Old Dominion has the No. 6 scoring defense in the nation at just 60.8 points per game against, leading it to a 13-21 O/U record, including the UNDER cashing in nine of its last 10 games. However, just five of Purdue’s 32 games have gone UNDER 129 points this season.
- Purdue will be the second-highest scoring offense and the third-best scoring defense that Old Dominion has played this season. Old Dominion has the No. 302 scoring offense in the nation at 66.2 points per game.
- Purdue is 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite. Old Dominion was an underdog just four times this season, going 2-2 SU and ATS. It has not been a double-digit dog since 2016.
- Purdue is 297th in the nation with 68.3 possessions per game while Old Dominion is at 331st with 67.1.
My Best Bet for Old Dominion vs Purdue
Old Dominion UNDER 58.5 Team Points
I think that Purdue controls this game from the outset but the spread is a little too high in a potentially low-scoring game for me to get behind. Old Dominion has the capability to keep this game low-scoring but it will likely come at the cost of the Monarch’s own offense.
So, if they plan to be successful with stingy defense, it’s likely that they’ll be UNDER their season average of 66.2 points per game – the No. 302 scoring offense in the country. As this will be one of the better defenses that the Monarchs have seen, it stands to reason that they’ll be lower than their season scoring average and that Purdue will do better than its No. 50 66.8 points against.
