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Revenge is a Factor in Big Ten Final

Denzel Valentine Michigan State Spartans NCAAB

The Big Ten championship game pits the Michigan State Spartans against the Purdue Boilermakers Sunday afternoon. While the Spartans will no doubt look to avenge an overtime loss earlier this season, bettors should take note of two trends that have dominated at the betting window when these two schools have met in recent years.

Shark Bites
  • The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the previous seven meetings between these two teams.
  • OVER is 5-1 in Purdue’s last six games versus teams from the Big Ten.
  • OVER is 8-3 in Michigan State’s last 11 games overall.

OVER wagers have cashed in seven-straight meetings between the Spartans and Boilermakers heading into Sunday’s meeting. The two combined for 163 points in their prior meeting back on February 9, easily eclipsing the closing total of 143. The last time the two played a game that cashed an UNDER ticket was March 11, 2011 when the Spartans won 74-56, a score that finished a half-point under the closing 130.5.

Furthermore, the Spartans have covered the spread in seven of the previous eight head-to-head meetings with the Boilermakers. Purdue last covered the number on March 4 of last season in a 72-66 loss as 7-point underdogs. Purdue did win the previous meeting with the Spartans 82-81 but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites.

The loss is one of Michigan State’s five on the season and is the only loss in their previous 13 contests overall so revenge could very well play a big factor in the conference championship game.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Michigan State Spartans were listed as -3.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks tracked by Odds Shark earlier in the day. It opened first at BetOnline, where the over/under betting odds total was expected shortly.

Purdue Boilermakers vs Michigan State Spartans Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

This college basketball season, the Michigan State Spartans are 28-5 overall and 22-10 ATS, while the Purdue Boilermakers are 26-7 and 17-11-1 ATS. As for the betting totals, Michigan State boasts a 16-16 on the OU, and Purdue is 15-14.

The Odds Shark Power Rankings have the Michigan State Spartans at No. 1 and the Purdue Boilermakers at No. 108 heading into this college basketball betting matchup.

Statistical Matchup

Scoring and defensive stats point to some betting edges in this matchup. The game features Michigan State's No. 23-ranked scoring average of 80.18 PPG, against a Purdue Boilermakers defense rated No. 22 and allowing 64.55 PPG. The Michigan State Spartans FG% has averaged 48.57% to date this season, more than the Purdue Boilermakers shooters have managed so far (47.43% per game).

Recent Outings Betting Recap

A.J. Hammons scored 27 points and added 27 rebounds for a double-double, leading Purdue over Michigan, 76-59, on Saturday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

Michigan State got 18 points from Denzel Valentine en route to a 64-61 victory over Maryland on Saturday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

Betting Trends
  • Purdue is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Purdue is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Purdue's last 6 games
  • Purdue is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Michigan State
  • Michigan State is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games
  • Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Michigan State's last 11 games
  • Michigan State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Purdue