Consider it an early Christmas gift, courtesy of the college basketball schedule: the biggest non-conference game of the regular season, and a potential preview of the Final Four. Thatâs certainly the case Saturday afternoon, when No. 1 Arizona and No. 4 Purdue meet in Indianapolis.
The Wildcats and Boilermakers are the leaders in NCAA championship futures odds at many sportsbooks, just one element that makes this showdown so notable from a betting standpoint. Arizona also enters at a perfect 8-0 both overall and ATS, most recently crushing a ranked Wisconsin team as 9.5-point favorites at home. The Purdue game figures to be just the second time this season Arizona has played as an underdogâthe last was Nov. 10, when the Wildcats won outright at 5-point favorite Duke.
5 weeks from today
â Ryan Lommen (@TheDukeNation) October 6, 2023
Arizona vs. Duke
Cameron Indoor Stadium
đ”đ pic.twitter.com/1vC8o2JA4U
Purdue has not been as consistent ATS, covering in six of 10 outings thus far. But the Boilermakers have two covers and a push in three games against ranked opponents, and last weekend fought off a game effort from Alabama to cover as 5.5-point favorites on a neutral court in Toronto. Player of the year futures favorite Zach Edey scored 35 points in that contest, tying his season high, though he was held short of a double-double for just the third time this season.
And thatâs not the only marquee matchup college basketball bettors have to look forward to this weekend. Friday night in Seattle brings go-anywhere, play-anybody Connecticut against Gonzaga, which is coming off a road loss to rival Washington as 4.5-point favorites, and has covered just two of its last six. The Huskies, meanwhile, have been very good against ranked teams, beating the spread in outright wins over Texas and North Carolina, and failing to cover in a loss at Kansas by a half-point.
The Tar Heels, meanwhile, play Saturday in Atlanta against Kentucky, which has covered in five of its last sixâthe exception being a head-scratcher of a home loss to 18-point underdog UNC Wilmington. UNC has covered four of its last six, though last time out it lost by 11 as a 5.5-point favorite to UConn. Saturday also features Texas A&M at unbeaten Houston, where the play to watch is the UNDER. The Cougarsâ defense is so good, theyâve gone UNDER the total in eight of 10 games so far.
Thatâs a pretty phenomenal slate of matchups in what is otherwise a fairly light college basketball weekend. Here are some other notable sports betting winners and losers from the first five weeks of the college basketball season.
Winners
One of the surprises of the early season, the Sooners entered the week unbeaten, and having covered the spread in seven of nine games. Porter Moserâs team has been particularly efficient against the better teams on its schedule: OU covered as a 2.5-point underdog against USC, as a 1.5-point favorite against Iowa, as a 5-point favorite against Providence, and as a 3.5-point favorite against Arkansas. A huge test looms next week against North Carolina.
The climb continues đ#BoomerSooner â pic.twitter.com/ZrEI2LddVI
â Oklahoma Basketball (@OU_MBBall) December 11, 2023
Scott Drewâs team keeps doing its thing, entering the week undefeated and having covered the spread in six of eight games against Division I opponents. That includes four straight, running the gamut from covers against Florida (as a 3-point favorite) and Seton Hall (as an 11-point favorite) to even a 51-point blowout of 34-point underdog Northwestern State. Saturday brings Michigan State and next week Duke, two teams dealing with all kinds of issues.
That upset of Purdue may not have been a fluke, given that the smart kids entered the week having covered the spread in three straight and four of five. This run has been good enough to propel Northwestern into the AP Top 25, and the Wildcats have a series of very winnable games in front of them until they travel to Illinois in early January.
Losers
The Hurricanes just havenât been the same since they were embarrassed at Rupp Arena back in late November. Miami entered the week having covered the spread just once since, that in a blowout over 30-point underdog Long Island. The Hurricanes failed to cover a 14.5-point favorites against Notre Dame, lost outright as 1.5-point favorites to Colorado, and look like a team whose cushy early schedule hasnât sufficiently prepared them for the grind.
We warned you last week about the Longhorns, who then went to Marquette and got blown out as 8.5-point underdogs. Texas entered the week having covered the spread just once in its last eight games, that in a home victory over 16-point underdog Wyoming. The Longhorns have a lot of tomato cans lined up in front of them, which means a lot of huge lines of the type Texas hasnât covered with any regularity at all.
Kansas
Goodnight, #JayhawkNation đŽ pic.twitter.com/C3zJ9m504a
â Kansas Menâs Basketball (@KUHoops) December 10, 2023
Can somebody wake up the Jayhawks? Bill Selfâs team keeps winning, of course, but their cover rate entering the week was also one of the worst among squads in the Top 25. As of Monday the Jayhawks has covered in just two of their last eight games, those wins over Tennessee (-1.5) and UConn (-3.5). They sleepwalked to a closer-than-expected home victory over 38.5-point underdog Eastern Illinois, and most recently won by nine over 13.5-point under Missouri.
Upset Alert
Some games involving Top 25 teams to watch as potential point-spread upsets:
FAU vs. St. Bonaventure
The Owls recovered nicely after their unthinkable home loss to Bryant, winning four straight both overall and against the spread before losing by nine to Illinois as a 2.5-point favorite. Saturday FAU travels to Springfield, Mass., for a neutral-court game against always-dangerous St. Bonaventure, a quality mid-major thatâs won four straight both outright and against the spread, and owns a victory over Oklahoma State.
Texas A&M at Houston
The Cougars entered the week unbeaten against a schedule that KenPom ranked 270th in the nation. They failed to cover against the best team theyâve seen thus far, Xavier, which fell by six as a 8.5-point underdog. Texas A&M dropped out of the rankings after losing to Virginia and Memphis, but has a star guard in Wade Taylor IV who can take over a game. And this one is in Houstonâs NBA arena rather than on the Cougarsâ home court, likely meaning a very divided crowd.
Clemson at Memphis
A dangerous game for Clemson, which entered the week unbeaten overall and having covered in three of its last four. Memphis is coming off an outright victory at Texas A&M as an 8-point underdog, and entered the week having covered two straight and four of six. Clemson has won and covered in one big game after anotherâhow long can they keep it up?
Player Prop Watch
Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:
- Zack Edey, Purdue center: Entered the week with double-doubles in eight of 11 games, having scored 35, 25 and 35 points over his previous three outings, with averages of 24.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game.
- Hunter Dickinson, Kansas center: Entered the week with double-doubles in four of his previous five games and a scoring average of 19.4 points and 12.6 rebounds per outing.
- Armando Bacot, North Carolina center: Entered the week with double-doubles in four of his previous five games, and averages of 15.9 point and 11.9 rebounds per outing.
- Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois guard: Entered the week having scored 22, 33 and 23 points over his previous three outings, with an average of 21.7 points per game.
- R.J. Davis, North Carolina guard: Entered the week having scored 26, 27, 27, 30 and 23 points over his past five games, with an average of 21 points per outing.
- Kyle Filipowski, Duke center: Entered the week with double-doubles in two of his past four games, and averages of 17.3 points and 8.9 rebounds per outing.
- Tristen Newton, Connecticut guard: Entered the week with two double-doubles and one triple-double in 10 games, and averages of 17 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists per outing.
- LJ Cryer, Houston guard: Entered the week having scored 20 or more points three times in his past four games, with an average of 17.8 points per outing.
Top 25 Pick 3
Baylor to cover vs. Michigan State
Baylor keeps winning and covering, and Michigan State keeps plummeting relative to preseason expectations. The Spartans entered the week having covered in just one of their last four and three times all season, most recently losing back-to-back games to Wisconsin and Nebraska as point-spread favorites. Plus the game is in Detroit, helping Baylor to mitigate whatever home advantage Michigan State may have left.
Creighton to cover vs. Alabama
Crimson Tide is playing a brutally hard non-conference schedule, and struggling to cover against top-tier opponents. Alabama has dropped five straight against the spread in a stretch that includes games against Clemson, Purdue, Oregon and Ohio State. The Bluejays meanwhile have won and covered in three straight since their loss to Colorado State, and are perfect at home both overall and against the spread.
Arizona to cover vs. Purdue
Zach Edey is having a monster season, but thatâs not always translating into wins for sports bettors; in fact, the Boilermakers have covered in just two of their last five. Purdue has the best player, but Arizona has the better rosterâone thatâs getting contributions from all over the floor, and hammering opponents as a result. Plus, itâs very difficult to go against a Wildcats team thatâs 8-0 against the spread, and likely to be an underdog Saturday in Indianapolis.
