When the Duke Blue Devils outlasted Virginia to win last year’s ACC tournament, it marked the fourth straight time the event had been won by a team other than its No. 1 seed. As the league convenes in Washington, D.C., for this season’s tournament, top seed and +150 odds favorite North Carolina tries to buck that trend of upheaval.
The major-conference tournaments that set the stage for March Madness are upon us, and historically some of these leagues are far more predictable than others. The ACC for instance has seen just three No. 1 seeds win its tournament over the past decade—which encompasses nine tournaments, given that everything was wiped out by the pandemic in 2020. And then there’s the SEC, the chalkiest of the bunch, where Alabama last season became the fifth No. 1 seed to clip the nets since 2014.
The Big East produced the biggest tournament shocker of the past decade—eighth-seeded Georgetown winning in 2021—but has otherwise seen No. 1 or 2 seeds win every other tournament since 2017. For all of Kansas’ dominance in Big 12 regular seasons, Iowa State owns more tournament titles over the past decade. Arizona has dominated the Pac-12 tournament with five titles since 2015, and the Big 10 tournament has seen five different winners over its past five events.
What does all that tell us? That the favorite doesn’t always win conference tournaments—in fact, the average winning seed in the six major conferences over the past decade is 2.6. True shockers like Georgetown in 2021 are rare; the Hoyas are one of just three teams seeded No. 7 or lower to win a major-conference tournament over the past decade. Over that same span, 13 teams seeded fourth or fifth have cut down the nets, which perhaps indicates where the real betting value lies.
Of course, current dynamics like the top-heavy ACC and the middle-bloated Big East could well run counter to those historical trends. But one factor is irrefutable—three (or four) games in as many days on a neutral court alters the dynamic we’ve seen at play in college basketball since conference games began around the first of the year. Depth and bench contributions matter more now than at any other time of year—even more than in the Big Dance itself, where teams at least get 48 hours off between games.
To quote Gen. George S. Patton: God so help me, but I love it. We’re on the brink of three solid weeks of endless college basketball games and betting opportunities, and the rush is unlike anything else in sports. So enjoy it. And in the meantime, here are this week’s notable sports betting winners and losers from the Top 25.
Winners
Kentucky: A few weeks ago the Wildcats seemed almost radioactive from a betting standpoint after losing seven of 10 against the spread. But since then freshmen Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard have emerged as reliable complements to star Antonio Reeves, and Kentucky has won seven of eight outright, covering the spread five times over that span. Closing the regular season with a victory at 8.5-point favorite Tennessee was impressive to say the least.
Connecticut: The reigning national champions are flexing their muscles again, and looking like the team to beat for the national championship. UConn closed its regular season with four straight wins both outright and against the spread, all of them against teams that could be in the NCAA tournament. Since Jan. 28, they’re 11-1 outright and 9-3 against the spread. The Huskies’ last eight wins have all been by double-digits. Watch out.
Creighton: Trey Alexander’s fade-away jumper with .2 seconds left at Villanova last Saturday not only beat the Wildcats 69-67, it allowed the Bluejays to cover as a 1.5-point road favorite. Creighton ended the regular season on a tear, winning seven of its last eight both outright and against the spread, and beating both Connecticut and Marquette in the process. The Bluejays have three reliable scorers, and are peaking at the right time.
Losers
Houston: Yeah, we know—they’re the No. 1 team in the AP poll, the Big 12 regular season champs, and they just throttled Kansas to win for the 14th time in their last 15 outings. But if you’re betting the Cougars ATS, you’re getting hammered. Houston ended the regular season with against-the-spread losses in eight of its last 11 games, though they did cover in the finale as 7.5-point home favorites against the Jayhawks. Their records are wildly divergent: 28-3 overall, and 14-15-2 against the spread.
Kansas: With nine outright losses, the Jayhawks appear ranked in the Top 25 on reputation alone—much less 16th, where they are this week. What a train wreck this team has been down the stretch, in all areas. Kansas closed the regular season with five losses in its last nine games, and covered the spread just three times over that span. Kansas is beat up, and neither Kevin McCullarnor Hunter Dickinson are expected to play in the Big 12 tournament. Stay away. Stay very far away.
Alabama: The high-scoring Crimson Tide are sputtering down the stretch, thanks to renewed defensive issues that are allowing opponents to put up tons of points (like 105 by Florida!). The Tide closed the regular season with three losses in five games, and would have dropped their finale if Arkansas hadn’t had a dunk rim out in the final seconds of regulation. Alabama also lost five of its last six against the spread, and continues to struggle against opponents in Quad 1 of the NCAA’s NET rankings—like the kind they’ll face in the NCAA tournament.
Player Prop Watch
Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:
- Zack Edey, Purdue center: Ended the regular season with averages of 24.2 points and 11.7rebounds per game, having posted double-doubles in 13 of his last 15 contests and scoring 22 or more in eight straight.
- R.J. Davis, North Carolina guard: Ended the regular season with a scoring average of 21.1 points, having scored 20 or more in three of his last six contests.
- Kyle Filipowski, Duke center: Ended the regular season with averages of 16.7 points and 8.0rebounds per game, scoring in double-figures in four of his last six outings.
- Dalton Knecht, Tennessee guard: Ended the regular season with an average of 21.4 points per game, scoring 24 or more in four of his last five contests, including 40 in his most recent outing.
- Antonio Reeves, Kentucky guard: Ended the regular season with an average of 20.2 points per game, having scored 20 or more in seven consecutive outings.
- Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois guard: Ended the regular season with an average of 21.6 points per game, having scored 23 or more in seven of his last nine outings.
- Mark Sears, Alabama guard: Ended the regular season with an average of 21.1 points per game, having scored 20 or more in 13 of his last 14 games.
- Armando Bacot, North Carolina center: Ended the regular season with averages of 13.9 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, having scored in double-figures in eight of his last 10 outings.
- L.J. Cryer, Houston guard: Ended the regular season with an average of 15.7 points per game, having scored 22 or more in three of his last four outings.
Top 25 Pick 3
North Carolina to Win the ACC Tournament, +150
All that stuff up top about how balanced conference tournaments tend to be, and how hard they are for the top seed to win? It all goes out the window when your league is weaker than it’s been in decades, which is the case right now for the ACC. UNC’s side of the bracket (with Pitt as the No. 4 seed) is hardly intimidating, and the Tar Heels could face Duke (who they swept in the regular season) or Virginia (who they beat by 10 in Charlottesville) in the final.
Kentucky to Win the SEC Tournament, +400
The “Kentucky Invitational” as they call it, hasn’t lived up to billing in recent years, given that the Wildcats haven’t won the SEC tournament since 2018. But the location in Nashville is a magnet for Big Blue Nation, and the Wildcats enter the tournament playing their best and most complete basketball of the season. The bracket also works in the Wildcats’ favor—they’ll potentially meet struggling Alabama in the semis (bet the over if that happens), while Tennessee, South Carolina and Auburn will all beat each other up on the other side.
Iowa State to Win the Big 12 Tournament, +340
The team that’s won the most Big 12 tournament titles over the past decade? It’s not Kansas—it’s Iowa State with four, the most recent coming in 2019. The Cyclones ended the regular season by winning eight of their last 10, clinching the No. 2 seed in Kansas City. The potential semifinal matchup is with Baylor, which beat Iowa State by two in Waco. The Cyclones also split a pair of regular season games with top seed Houston. With the Jayhawks perhaps staring at an early exit, this shapes up as the most interesting Big 12 tournament in years.
