From one of the biggest upset victims of the season, to one of the nation’s best bets against the spread? That’s been the neck-snapping transition we’ve seen from Florida Atlantic—and given the ridiculously weak schedule the Owls have ahead of them, FAU’s current run shows no signs of stopping anytime soon.
FAU sent a message to sports bettors and the nation last week by upsetting former No. 1 Arizona in double-overtime in Phoenix. The Owls, a 7-point underdog in that contest, entered the week having covered seven of their previous eight games. Six of the teams they faced over that span could well find themselves playing in the NCAA tournament. And it all comes on the heels of a Nov. 18 home loss to 23.5-point underdog Bryant, one of the worst losses suffered by any Top 25 team so far this season.
Florida Atlantic Owls senior guard Jalen Gaffney today vs. #4 Arizona: #NBADraft
— BKS (@BKSecretsSports) December 23, 2023
• 20 PTS
• 5 REBS
• 4 AST
• 1 STL
• 7-13 FG
• 3-5 3PT
• 3-3 FT pic.twitter.com/SDHpZFaRLD
And here’s the thing about FAU: the hard part is over, at least for now. Beginning this week against Florida Gulf Coast, the Owls play eight straight teams ranked lower than 100 at KenPom.com, the gold standard of college basketball analytic evaluation. After Dunk City (250), it’s East Carolina (165), Charlotte (123), Tulane (108), UAB (166), Wichita State (117), UTSA (302) and Rice (195). It will be a shocker if FAU’s not 18-2 at the end of that run, with a lot of covered spreads along the way.
The American Athletic Conference rolled out the red carpet for the Owls in their first season in the league. FAU doesn’t face another top-100 KenPom opponent until North Texas (81) on Jan. 28. Granted, the last month of the season might be a bear, with another game against the Mean Green in addition to showdowns against SMU (51) and home-and-home against Memphis (32). But for the time being, it all looks like smooth sailing for an FAU squad that currently stands as one of the more reliable spread plays in the country.
Here are some other notable sports betting winners and losers from the past few weeks of the college basketball season.
Winners
Ole Miss: The Rebels entered the week as one of just three (along with James Madison and Houston) outright unbeaten teams still remaining in college basketball. But they hadn’t been a very good option for sports bettors, having failed to cover in six of their first eight. That’s all changed this month, as the Rebels entered the week riding a four-game cover streak and facing a winnable non-conference finale against Bryant before opening SEC play against Tennessee.
Kentucky: Much like FAU, the Wildcats are another team that suffered an unexplainable home loss (in this case to 18-point underdog UNC Wilmington) and responded the right way. John Calipari’s best team in years entered the week on a three-game winning streak, having covered the spread in all of them after dispatching poor Louisville last week. The upcoming slate is rather tame until a trip to Texas A&M in mid-January.
The Kentucky Wildcats knockdown the Louisville Cardinals to improve to 9-2 on the year.
— Vince Metcalfe (UK 9-2) (@vincemetcalfe) December 22, 2023
The Cats return home next Friday to face the Illinois State Redbirds to close out the non conference schedule #BBN pic.twitter.com/5GC2CfWN3h
BYU: After a road loss at rival Utah and a bit of a sleepwalk at home against Denver, the Cougars have snapped out of it and entered the week having covered two straight and 10 of 12 games overall. The knock on BYU is that its schedule has been far too easy at this point (rated 312th nationally at KenPom), meaning we’re not sure what this team is capable of when it’s tossed into the Big 12 wash cycle for the first time next month.
Losers
Connecticut: Wait, really? Weren’t we just lauding this team as one of the best in the country a week ago? Hey, things change fast. The Huskies ended 2023 by failing to cover in two straight, one of those an outright loss at Seton Hall. UConn big man Donovan Clingan has been out with a foot injury, and the Huskies had to battle back from behind to beat St. John’s at home. All reminders that there are no easy nights in the Big East.
Marquette: Elsewhere in the Big East, Marquette has been bedeviling ATS, covering in just two of their past six games entering the week, and suffering an outright loss at 4.5-point underdog Providence. The Golden Eagles’ best player is a playmaking point guard, and this is the rare good team that’s consistently struggling to cover big numbers against outmanned opponents. A 30-point win over Georgetown last week is an exception that says more about the opponent.
Kansas: The Jayhawks entered the week at 11-1 overall, they have a player of the year candidate in center Hunter Dickinson, and they still can’t cover. Mighty Kansas entered the week having dropped four straight and eight of 10 against the spread. And these aren’t gigantic numbers—we’re talking a 13-point spread against Missouri, 7 points against Indiana, and 15 against Yale. Big 12 play is going to be fascinating, to say the least.
Upset Alert
Some games involving Top 25 teams to watch this week as potential point-spread upsets:
UNC Greensboro at Texas: The Longhorns have one of the worst cover rates among Top 25 teams, having beaten the spread just three times in 11 games entering the week. Last time out, they beat 23.5-point underdog Texas A&M-Commerce by just 16. And now here comes UNC Greensboro, which won at Arkansas on Nov. 17.
San Diego State at Gonzaga: A Bulldogs team that’s struggled to find points from the perimeter has failed to cover in four straight and six of eight entering the week. San Diego State has had its hiccups (like a loss to Grand Canyon), but 2023 Final Four hero Lamont Butler remains a force who the Zags may struggle to contain on the wing.
Creighton at Marquette: One of the best Big East games of the season, between two teams each capable of making deep runs in the NCAA tournament. Expect a narrow point spread and a contest the Bluejays with their three double-digit scorers are quite capable of winning on the road.
Player Prop Watch
Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:
- Zack Edey, Purdue center: Entered the week with averages of 24 points and 10.4 rebounds per game, having scored 22 or more in four of his past five outings.
- Hunter Dickinson, Kansas center: Entered the week with averages of 18.3 points and 12.5 rebounds per game, with double-doubles in three of his past four outings.
- Armando Bacot, North Carolina center: Entered the week with averages of 15.1 points and 11 rebounds per game, with double-doubles in three of his past five outings.
- Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois guard: Entered the week with a scoring average of 21.7 points per game, and having scored 22 or more in four of his past five outings.
- R.J. Davis, North Carolina guard: Entered the week with a scoring average of 21.7 points, having posted 23 or more points in each of his past seven outings.
- Kyle Filipowski, Duke center: Entered the week with averages of 17.9 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, with double-doubles in four of his last six outings.
- P.J. Hall, Clemson center: Entered the week averaging 20.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, having posted 21 or more points in five of his las seven outings
Top 25 Pick 3
North Carolina to cover against Charleston Southern:
The Tar Heels host a Buccaneers team that entered the week ranked No. 338 out of 362 D-I programs at KenPom, and which recently fired its coach. Yeah, it’s going to be ugly.
James Madison to cover against Texas State:
The Dukes entered the week unbeaten overall and having covered the spread in three of their past four. The Bobcats meanwhile are beating up on Division II schools, and recent games against Top 25 opponents have been ugly: lost by 29 to Oklahoma and 35 to Houston. They covered against Texas, but then again, so has everyone.
Arizona to cover at Cal:
The tough non-conference slate caught up with Arizona, which entered the week having dropped two of three as favorites. But those defeats came against Final Four-caliber opponents Purdue and FAU, and the Wildcats remained a stout 9-2 against the spread. They open Pac-12 play against a Cal team coming off a 3-29 season, and whose best win so far is over Santa Clara (KenPom No. 116).
