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Top 25 College Basketball Betting Preview: A Chance To See If Unbeaten Oklahoma Is For Real

David Caraviello Published on: Dec 18, 2023 3:03 PM ET

One of the best turnarounds in college basketball is unfolding in Oklahoma, where a program that finished last season with a losing record entered this week as one of the nation’s final four remaining unbeaten teams. And the Sooners have been good to sports bettors as well, covering the spread in eight of their first 10 games.

Of course, there’s a catch: Oklahoma’s success thus far has come against a schedule that KemPom.com ranks 332nd in America, with the Sooners’ best victories coming over USC and Arkansas teams that both started the season in the Top 25 but have since plummeted into mediocrity. Beyond that, it’s been a lot of covering big numbers against the likes of Texas-Pan American and Wisconsin-Green Bay, not exactly the type of slate that prepares a team to hang with Kansas and Houston in the Big 12.

Wednesday night, though, sports bettors get a chance to see if the Sooners are for real. Oklahoma heads to Charlotte to face a North Carolina team coming off back-to-back losses to Connecticut and Kentucky. The Tar Heels have been terribly uneven both ATS and overall, failing to cover in three straight and four of six entering the week. But they’ve also played a far more rigorous schedule (22nd at KenPom) and will be the clear crowd favorite on the “neutral” floor in the Queen City.

Elsewhere, last week brought wake-up calls for what had been three of the best Top 25 teams against the spread: Arizona, BYU and Baylor. The Wildcats fell by eight to 1.5-point underdog Purdue in Indianapolis, marking the first outright and ATS defeats for ’Zona this season. Fresh off its first outright loss at Utah, BYU failed to cover a big number against Denver, while a Baylor squad that had covered four straight went to Detroit and simply failed to show up in a blowout loss to 3.5-point underdog Michigan State.

With Christmas approaching, there aren’t many notable Top 25 matchups this week outside of Oklahoma’s visit to North Carolina. A notable exception is Baylor against Duke on Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden, and Arizona playing a pair of marquee neutral court contests—against dangerous Alabama on Wednesday night in Phoenix, and against Florida Atlantic on Saturday in Las Vegas.

Here are some notable sports betting winners and losers from the past few weeks of the college basketball season.

Winners

Clemson: Yes, the Tigers suffered their first loss of the season. But they still managed to cover, falling by two at 3-point favorite Memphis.

Clemson has been very good against the spread as of late, covering in four of its past five games entering the week. For bettors, though, things may get dicey: the Tigers will face big numbers against Queens and Radford to close 2023, and then have their ACC mettle tested against Miami and North Carolina in the first week of 2024.

Purdue: Talk about a statement victory—playing as a mild underdog in their home state, the Boilermakers were in control all the way against then-No. 1 Arizona in Indianapolis.

It was a third straight cover for Purdue on the heels of the upset loss at Northwestern, and all of them have been notable: the Boilers handled Big 10 foe Iowa, rallied to win and cover against scrappy Alabama in Toronto, and then took down the top-ranked team in America. They’ll be heavy favorites in two straight before heading to Maryland in early January.

FAU: A team that inexplicably lost at home to 22-point underdog Bryant has been lights-out since, winning and covering the spread in six of their last seven outings to enter the week. 

That includes a 10-point victory on a neutral floor against 9-point underdog St. Bonaventure, and back-to-back blowouts of very good mid-major programs Liberty and Charleston. The lone outright and ATS loss in this recent loss has been to Illinois—no crime there. The showdown against Arizona looms this weekend.

Losers

Northwestern: So much for the Smart Kids.

In a half-empty Welsh Ryan Arena devoid of any energy or emotion, the Wildcats suffered an outright loss to 24.5-point underdog Chicago State that trumped Bryant over FAU for worst home loss by any Top 25 team so far this season. A push against wretched DePaul (a 10-point underdog) didn’t engender any confidence in a Northwestern team that promptly fell out of the rankings on Monday.

Kansas: Hard to believe that we’re fading a top-five team that entered the week with a 10-1 outright record, but that’s certainly the case with the Jayhawks.

Kansas entered the week having covered just two if its last nine games, looking downright lackluster in a four-point road victory over 7-point underdog Indiana. Strangely, the only covers in that span have come against Top 25 opponents Tennessee and UConn. The Jayhawks should face no road blocks until welcoming Oklahoma in mid-January—but with this team, who knows.

Gonzaga: The Zags were exposed by quicker, more athletic UConn last weekend in a double-digit loss as 3.5-point underdogs in Seattle.

Gonzaga entered the week having lost two of its past three outright, and having failed to cover in three straight and five of its lasts seven. With no reliable perimeter game, the Bulldogs look stolid and one-dimensional, and they have a dangerous home game against San Diego State looming next weekend.

Upset Alert

Some games involving Top 25 teams to watch as potential point-spread upsets:

Illinois vs. Missouri: Illinois has a phenomenal scorer in guard Terrence Shannon Jr., but not even his 20.9 points per game has prevented the Illini from dropping their past two against the spread. Missouri has covered three of its past four, the outlier there being an outright loss to 2.5-point underdog Seton Hall. This game is in St. Louis, so expect an evenly-divided crowd.

Villanova at Creighton: Oh, those Wildcats—win the Battle 4 Atlantis, drop three straight immediately afterward, rebound with a home win over UCLA. The most unpredictable team in America heads to Omaha to face a Creighton team that last week suffered a head-scratching loss to UNLV, and entered this week having dropped two straight against the spread.

Colorado State at Loyola Marymount: Not many Top 25 teams are playing true nonconference road games this week, which makes this matchup stand out. The Rams entered the week having dropped their past two games against the spread (sorry, Division II CSU-Pueblo doesn’t count), while Loyola Marymount is 3-1 outright at home.

Player Prop Watch

Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:

  • Zack Edey, Purdue center: Entered the week with averages of 24.5 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, having scored 22, 35, 25 and 35 over his past four outings.
  • Hunter Dickinson, Kansas center: Entered the week with averages of 19.2 points and 12.7 rebounds per game, with double-doubles in three straight and five of his past six outings.
  • Armando Bacot, North Carolina center: Entered the week with averages of 15.2 points and 11.3 rebounds per game, with double-doubles in three of his past four outings.
  • Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois guard: Entered the week with a scoring average of 20.9 points per game, and having scored 22 or more in three of his past four outings.
  • R.J. Davis, North Carolina guard: Entered the week with a scoring average of 21.6 points, having posted 26 or more points in each of his past five outings.
  • Kyle Filipowski, Duke center: Entered the week with averages of 18.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, with double-doubles in three of his last five outings

Top 25 Pick 3

Connecticut to cover at Seton Hall: The Huskies entered the week at 10-1 overall, a lone loss at Kansas, and a valid argument as the No. 1 team in the country. UConn also entered the week having covered three straight, including in games against North Carolina and Gonzaga. Seton Hall is in a bit of a resurgence and doesn’t have a bad loss, but the Pirates entered the week a dreadful 1-7 in their past eight against the spread. 

Kentucky to cover at Louisville: Toss out a stunning home loss to UNC Wilmington (tough to do, we admit), and the Wildcats seem to be figuring things out—they entered the week having won six of seven and covered in four of five, the most recent a gutty victory over North Carolina in what was effectively a pick-‘em game. Louisville meanwhile remains awful, with recent losses to DePaul and Arkansas State, and the Cardinals entered the week having dropped four of six against the spread.

Baylor to cover against Duke: That outright loss to Michigan State was such an outlier for a Baylor team that had covered five of its past six before the game in Detroit. This week brings another high-profile neutral-court matchup, against Duke in New York. We’re still not sold on the Blue Devils, who entered the week 1-3 against the spread versus power conference 

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