Entering the season, they were projected to be one of the worst teams in major conference college basketball. This week, they’ve not only cracked the AP Top 25—they also hold the best record among all ranked teams against the spread.
That would be the surprising, shocking, surging South Carolina Gamecocks, who entered this week with the third-best cover rate in all of college basketball, according to data at TeamRankings.com.
Nobody expected this from a program that went 11-21 overall a year ago, and was projected by the statistical gurus to be the worst team in the SEC this season. But coach Lamont Paris landed several impact transfers, and the transformation has been stunning to behold.
Entering the week, South Carolina’s cover rate of 77.3 percent ranked third in Division I, according to TeamRankings, 12 spots higher than the next ranked team, New Mexico (whose success ATS we detailed last week). The Gamecocks as of Monday had covered in five straight and nine of their last 11, a span that included four SEC road wins and upsets of Kentucky and Tennessee, both then-ranked in the top 10.
SOUTH CAROLINA PULLS OFF THE UPSET IN KNOXVILLE 😱
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) January 31, 2024
The Gamecocks take down No. 5 Tennessee for a HUGE road win 😤 pic.twitter.com/nlyfm97EDK
Sportsbooks have been slow to catch up to the Gamecocks, who entering this week had been point-spread underdogs in seven of their past nine games. They were 5.5-point underdogs at home to Kentucky (whom they defeated by 17), 14-point underdogs at Tennessee (won by four) and even 1.5-point underdogs last weekend at mediocre Georgia (which they beat by 10).
Things may be changing on that front—for Tuesday night’s home game against Ole Miss, the Gamecocks were favored by 4.5, and they could well be favored by double-digits at home Saturday against Vanderbilt.
Can they keep this up? South Carolina has just two ranked teams left on its schedule, and five of its final nine games are at home. The Gamecocks have proven very effective covers as underdogs and mild favorites, and there are no flukes this late in the season. Further evidence of staying power: South Carolina had lost its previous two games against Tennessee by 40 and 43 points, and went to Knoxville last week and beat the Volunteers at their own physical game. Things have changed in Columbia, and sports bettors should take note.
And with that, here are some notable sports betting winners and losers from the season’s past few weeks.
Winners
Alabama: The Crimson Tide took their lumps against an array of top-tier opponents in the non-conference season, an experience that’s paying dividends now. Alabama has caught fire in SEC play, entering this week having won 10-of-11 outright and covering in four straight and nine of 11. Guard Mark Sears is a scoring machine, having hit for 20-plus in eight of nine games as of Monday, and the Tide right now look likes the best team in the SEC.
Auburn: Alabama’s archrival has been nearly as effective of late, entering the week having won 13-of-15 outright and covering in seven of nine. Auburn dropped back-to-back road games at Alabama and Mississippi State (no crime there), but responded with two straight covers and remains excellent against the spread at home. A perfect time for the Iron Bowl of Basketball, arriving Wednesday on the Plains.
Auburn moved up four spots to No. 12 in the latest @AP_Top25 basketball poll. 🦅🏀
— Auburn Tigers | AL.com (@aldotcomTigers) February 5, 2024
The Tigers will host No. 16 Alabama at Neville Arena on Wednesday night (6PM CT | ESPN2) pic.twitter.com/YB2kkxy39l
North Carolina: A bobble on the road last week against 8.5-point underdog Georgia Tech was a rare lapse from the Tar Heels, who otherwise have looked far and away the class of the ACC. The misfire in Atlanta notwithstanding, UNC entered the week having won 11 of 12 outright and covered in 10 of their last 12. They won and covered against rival Duke last weekend with ease, and their remaining schedule doesn’t scare anybody.
Losers
Texas Tech: The rigors of the Big 12 seem to be taking their toll on the Red Raiders, who entering the week had dropped three of their last five outright, and lost four of their past six against the spread. Losing outright at home to 4.5-point underdog Cincinnati last week was not a positive sign. The Raiders are now under .500 ATS and just break-even at home, both glaring alarm bells with lots of tough league games still to come.
San Diego State: The Aztecs returned to the AP Top 25 this week, and now hold the inauspicious title of Worst Ranked Team Against the Spread. The darlings of last year’s Final Four are 8-12 against the number for a cover rate of 40 percent, according to TeamRankings. They got into the Top 25 despite losing three of their last six outright, and covering in just two of their last seven games entering the week.
Wisconsin: It was a rough past week for the normally steady Badgers, who blew a 19-point lead in a loss at Nebraska and then watched Purdue take control over the final 30 minutes to win in Madison. Wisconsin entering this week had lost five of its last six games against the spread, its worst such stretch against the number all season. The Badgers are now barely over .500 as a point-spread favorite, a percentage that doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Upset Alert
Some games involving Top 25 teams to watch this week as potential point-spread upsets:
Dayton at VCU: While the “Havoc” era may be long gone, this remains a very capable VCU team that entering the week had won six of seven both outright and ATS. The Flyers entering the week had dropped their last road game—which was also in the Virginia capital, to the crosstown Richmond Spiders.
Houston at Cincinnati: The Bearcats remain a tough out in the Big 12, winning at Texas Tech, covering three of four entering the week, and playing a slew of close league games. Their slow-down style poses an interesting challenge for defensive-minded Houston, which entering the week had failed to cover in five of its past eight.
Arizona at Colorado: The Wildcats are a total crapshoot away from home, entering the week with a 3-3 mark ATS in true road games—which includes outright losses at Stanford, at Washington State and at Oregon State. While Arizona hammered Colorado in Tucson, the Buffaloes were missing two starters in that game, and this is the dreaded back end of a two-game road swing.
Player Prop Watch
Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:
- Zack Edey, Purdue center: Entered the week with averages of 23.1 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, having posted double-doubles in seven consecutive contests.
- Hunter Dickinson, Kansas center: Entered the week with averages of 18.9 points and 11.1 rebounds per game, having posted double-doubles in three consecutive contests.
- R.J. Davis, North Carolina guard: Entered the week with a scoring average of 21.2 points, having scored 20 or more in five of his past seven outings.
- Kyle Filipowski, Duke center: Entered the week with averages of 17.7 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, scoring in double-figures in five of his past seven outings.
- Dalton Knecht, Tennessee guard: Entered the week with an average of 19.9 points per game, having scored 30 or more four times in his past six outings.
- Antonio Reeves, Kentucky guard: Entered the week with averages of 19.5 points and 4.2rebounds per game, having scored 20 or more points in five of his past seven outings.
- Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois guard: Entered the week with an average of 20 points per game, having scored 16, 12, 12, 23 and 18 in his first five games back from suspension.
- Mark Sears, Alabama guard: Entered the week averaging 20.1 points per game, having scored 21 or more in eight of his past nine contests.
Top 25 Pick 3
Kansas to cover against Baylor: We’ve knocked the Jayhawks for underperforming relative to the spread this season, but they’ve now covered three of four—including an impressive dismantling of No. 4 Houston in Lawrence. Yes, Kansas lost a rivalry game on the road in overtime on Monday. But they’ve still done enough to like their chances of covering in the Phogagainst Baylor, which entering the week had beaten the spread in just two of its last six.
Connecticut to cover at Georgetown: Indeed, it will be a big number on the road. But since nearly winning at Xavier, the Hoyas have lost by 24 to Butler and 34 to Marquette, both in the District. UConn hasn’t been the greatest against the spread, covering six of its last nine entering the week, but it’s tough to ignore the nation’s No. 1 team on a 10-game winning streak against the second-worst team in the Big East.
Purdue to cover against Indiana: Another elite team that’s been a dicey prospect against the spread this season, Purdue has found a modicum of consistency in covering four of its last six entering the week, to go along with a seven-game outright winning streak. Indiana meanwhile is heading in the opposite direction, entering the week with outright losses in four of its last five and spread losses in four of its last seven.
