The No. 14 Florida State Seminoles needed overtime to sneak past No. 19 LSU 79-76 on Friday to reach the AdvoCare Invitational final at the HP Fieldhouse against the Villanova Wildcats. The reigning national champions cruised to victory in its two tournament games en route to their final berth, but they are a 3.5-point underdog vs Florida State with the total Sportsbook at 148.5 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of Villanova’s six games this season.
- Florida State is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS through its five games this season.
- The total has gone UNDER in three of Florida State’s last four games.
Florida State vs Villanova Game Center
Seminoles passed first tough test of the season
Florida State cruised to victory through its first four games of the season, including its Sportsbook-round 81-63 win over UAB. However, it was tasked with taking on undefeated No. 19 LSU in the semifinal in this tournament. The Seminoles lived up to the occasion, earning a come-from-behind overtime victory to remain undefeated themselves. Everything goes through senior guard Terance Mann on offense, as he leads the team with 13.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. The Massachusetts native hits 52.2 percent of his shots from the floor, taking only six triples this year, scoring four of them.
Florida State isn’t a huge offensive threat, breaking 82 points just once this year, and needed 11 points in overtime to reach 79 points in its semifinal win over LSU. The Seminoles are, however, a good rebounding and defensive unit averaging 11.2 offensive rebounds per game which is the 43rd-most in college basketball, while allowing just 5.8 offensive boards which are the 11th-fewest in the nation.
Are the Wildcats starting to put it together?
After winning the national championship last year, Villanova lost four players to the NBA draft and are 4-2 to start the season. The Wildcats were ranked inside the top 10 in the AP poll early in the season, but back-to-back losses to then-No. 18 Michigan (73-46) and Furman (76-68 OT) they now find themselves on the outside looking in. They have reached the AdvoCare Invitational final with ease, outscoring Canisius and Oklahoma State by a combined 160-114 score.
As was the case last year for Villanova, it elects to shoot early and often from beyond the arc, averaging 33.2 three-point attempts per game which is the third-most in college basketball, hitting 11.2 of those tries ranking 10th in the nation which is a 33.7 shooting percentage putting it in a tie for 171st. This may be an area of success for the Wildcats today as the Seminoles rank outside of the top-100 in defending the long-ball.
Is the UNDER the bet to make?
Neither team is blowing anyone away with an offensive explosion and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 148.5 points. Villanova ranks outside of the top 100 in scoring, averaging just 76.7 points per game, while Florida State does a little better averaging 82.8 points per game which is 30th in the nation. However, both teams are strong defensively with the Wildcats allowing 65.5 points per game good for 57th-fewest in college basketball and the Seminoles are just behind surrendering 65.8 ppg ranking 61st. Lastly, Villanova has gone UNDER in five of its six games this year with only its season-Sportsbook game going OVER with an average combined score of 142.17 and I think another UNDER may be in store today.
My take on Florida State vs Villanova
I like the UNDER 148.5 points for today’s game. I think both teams are very stout defensively and are aggressive in grabbing rebounds. Villanova will find success shooting the three today, but its percentage is low and I think it will struggle to find points down low. Meanwhile, I think Florida State is going to have a hard time shooting beyond the arc and will be forcing the ball inside the three-point line where it is shooting just 50.5 percent. The Wildcats have been UNDER machines lately and I think that trend will continue in the AdvoCare Invitational final.
