The No. 9 Virginia Tech Hokies head to Chapel Hill to tip off against the No. 13 North Carolina Tar Heels tonight. Virginia Tech ended a seven-game losing slide to North Carolina last year with an 80-69 triumph but hasn’t won at the Dean E. Smith Center since 2007, a span of six games. Both teams are coming off victories and the Tar Heels are a 4-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 155 points.
- North Carolina is 8-1 SU and 4-3-2 ATS in its last nine home games.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of North Carolina’s last eight games.
- North Carolina has scored the third-most points per game in the nation this season (87.3).
Virginia Tech vs North Carolina Game Center
Offense has been an issue on the road for the Hokies
Virginia Tech is back on the road for the first time since its 81-59 beatdown at the hands of then-No. 4 Virginia last Tuesday. That defeat snapped a nine-game winning streak for the Hokies, but they bounced back on Saturday with an 87-71 triumph over visiting Wake Forest. Overall VT brings a 15-2 record into tonight’s game, including a 4-1 ACC record.
It has been a tale of two tapes offensively for the Hokies this season. At home, they are averaging 83.8 points per game, but on the road, they score just 70.9 ppg. Overall, they average 78.5 ppg to rank 54th in the nation and they do a lot of damage from beyond the arc with 39.1 percent of their total points coming from long range. Virginia Tech averages 10.2 treys per game, the 10th-most in the nation, and has four players averaging double-digit points, led by Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s 18.3 points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Hokies limit opposing teams to just 59.5 ppg for the No. 5 mark in college basketball, but much like the offense, it is a different story home and away as Virginia Tech surrenders 10 more ppg in its road games (65.9 vs 55.1). One of the biggest issues for the Hokies is their weak rebounding. They secure just 32.6 boards per game to rate 301st in the nation, but they limit their foes to just 29.2 rebounds per game, ranking fourth.
Tar Heels need to clamp down on Defense to find success
North Carolina had to pull up its socks following an 83-62 drubbing at the hands of Louisville on January 12 and has done so by collecting back-to-back wins. This is the sixth ranked foe that the Tar Heels has tipped off against already this season, going 3-2 SU in the previous five games. Additionally, that Louisville loss a couple of weeks ago was North Carolina’s lone home defeat this season.
The offense hasn’t been an issue for the Tar Heels as they average the third-most points per game in the nation this season at 87.3, which rises slightly to 88.3 at home. Unlike Virginia Tech, though, UNC only gets 28.1 percent of its points from long range, led by senior guard Cameron Johnson, who is shooting 47.3 percent from downtown. The Tar Heels’ uptempo style of play has led to the fourth-most shot attempts per game at 66.9 and they create the 59th-most turnovers per game, furthering their attempts at the basket.
However, keeping points off the board has been a struggle, as they are giving up an average of 73.3 ppg, ranking 201st, though that dips slightly to 70.4 at the Dean E. Smith Center. Turnovers have been an issue as they are giving the ball away an average of 14.3 times per game to rate 239th, leading to their opponents taking 61.5 shots per game which ranks 294th. Additionally, UNC surrenders the 31st-most three-point attempts per game, which isn’t good against VT.
Should you be on the UNDER?
High totals have made UNC a very strong UNDER bet recently and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 155 points. The Tar Heels have gone UNDER in seven of their last eight games with an average combined score of 149.38.
Meanwhile, the total has gone UNDER in five of Virginia Tech’s last nine games with an average combined score of 135, with just one game going OVER 155 points. Lastly, Virginia Tech has had major issues scoring on the road, averaging just 70.9 ppg and topping 75 points in just one game away from home, so I think an UNDER is in store for tonight.
My take on Virginia Tech vs UNC
I like Virginia Tech +4. The Tar Heels allow too many three-point attempts, an area in which the Hokies excel. Virginia Tech is giving up the fifth-fewest points per game in the nation at 59.5, including limiting opponents to a shooting percentage of 40.5 to rank 36th. Additionally, the Hokies create the 43rd-most turnovers per game and the Tar Heels rank 240th in giveaways.
UNC is the best rebounding team in the nation, but VA Tech has the sixth-best shooting percentage and ranks fourth in opponent rebounds per game.
