After a 1-3 start to the year, TCU (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) has won and covered five of its last six to roll into the Texas Bowl as a 6-point favorite over former Southwest Conference rival Arkansas (3-7, 7-3). The Razorbacks have been going the other way down the stretch, dropping four straight.
- Date/Time: December 31, 8 p.m. ET
- Stadium: NRG Stadium, Houston
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Sportsbook Odds: TCU -6 | O/U 57 (Line History)
- Arkansas vs TCU Matchup Report
Texas Bowl Odds Analysis
The Razorbacks have won just one of their last 29 games as an underdog of 6 points or more, but at least they usually keep things close. Arkansas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games when catching 6 or more.
Arkansas News & Notes
Not too long ago, the Razorbacks were an ATM for college football bettors, covering eight consecutive games dating back to last season. But if you were late to get off the Arkansas point spread train, you’ve given back some of those profits. Arky is 1-3 ATS and 0-4 SU in its last four games, with the lone cover coming by a half-point in a 50-48 loss at Missouri.
The defense has been gashed badly during that stretch, allowing at least 50 points in three of those four contests. Allowing 50-burgers to Florida and Alabama is somewhat excusable, but it’s harder to overlook giving up 50 points to a Mizzou attack that scored 20 or less in seven of its 10 games this year.
In fairness to Arkansas, the team has been hit hard by COVID-19 and injuries over the past month, with quarterbacks Feleipe Franks and K.J. Jefferson, star middle linebacker Grant Morgan, center Ricky Stromberg and tight ends Hudson Henry and Marcus Henderson among the casualties. First-year head coach Sam Pittman told reporters that his team should be close to full strength for the Texas Bowl.
Still, late-season struggles aren’t new in Fayetteville, where Arkansas has gone 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 December games. The Hogs have also failed to cover their last six bowl games as an underdog and are 0-8 SU in their last eight playoff games when catching points.
TCU News & Notes
The Horned Frogs will be without two of their key offensive cogs in the Texas Bowl. Tight end Pro Wells has opted out of the rest of the season in order to prepare for next summer’s NFL draft, and offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie has left the team after accepting a similar position this month at Texas Tech.
TCU still has dual-threat sophomore quarterback Max Duggan, who led the team in rushing with 526 yards and 10 touchdowns. Running backs Darwin Barlow, Zach Evans and Kendre Miller combined to run for more than 1,200 yards and 10 scores as the Horned Frogs led the Big 12 in rushing at 214 yards per game.
The Frogs enter bowl season with plenty of momentum, going 5-1 SU and ATS down the stretch and outscoring their final three opponents 140-55. Defensively, TCU has held seven of its last eight opponents to 24 points or less.
However, senior linebacker Garret Wallow, the team’s leading tackler this season, and junior safety Trevon Moehrig might follow Wells’ lead and opt out of the game to protect their status for next year’s NFL draft.
Betting Pick: Arkansas +6
Three of Arkansas’ seven losses this year came by a field goal or less, and the Razorbacks should bring plenty of energy in their first bowl appearance since 2016. Meanwhile, TCU may struggle in its first game under a new offensive coordinator and potentially without some of its top talent.
- Arkansas is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 playoff games as an underdog.
- TCU is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last 6 games.
- The UNDER is 8-1 in Arkansas’ last 9 playoff games.
