It’s been a dozen years since Hawaii (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) has competed in a bowl game on the mainland. The Warriors opened as 7.5-point underdogs to Houston (3-4, 3-4), which is coming off its second straight losing season and hasn’t won a bowl game since 2015.
- Date/Time: December 24, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Sportsbook Odds: Houston -7.5 | O/U 64.5 (Line History)
- Hawaii vs Houston Matchup Report
New Mexico Bowl Odds Analysis
It was one-way action early on Houston, driving the spread up to -13 at many sportsbooks by Sunday night. The total has also moved drastically since the opener, dipping to 61.5 at the time of writing.
Hawaii News & Notes
The Mountain West’s COVID-19 protocols meant the Rainbow Warriors didn’t get their season underway until October 24, but they managed to play the rest of their schedule without interruption.
Hawaii concluded its regular season December 12 with a 38-21 victory over UNLV, the second time in three games the Warriors held an opponent to 21 points after surrendering 30-plus in each of their previous four outings.
These aren’t the high-scoring Rainbow Warriors that we’ve seen in recent years. Hawaii didn’t score more than 39 points in any game, finishing the campaign 6-2 to the UNDER. Anything the Warriors manage to do offensively, however, will go through quarterback Chevan Cordeiro. The sophomore led Hawaii in both passing and rushing yards this year, throwing for 1,947 yards and 11 touchdowns while gaining another 450 yards and seven scores on the ground.
If this game is decided by the kickers, Hawaii looks like it’ll be at a significant disadvantage. The Warriors’ Matt Shipley missed five of his 13 field-goal attempts this season, while Houston’s Dalton Witherspoon was good on eight of his 10 tries, including a 53-yarder.
Houston News & Notes
Although the Cougars are making their first bowl appearance under head coach Dana Holgorsen, things haven’t gone as hoped in Holgorsen’s second season. The Cougs’ 30-27 loss at Memphis on December 12 saw them finish the regular season at 3-4 SU, though it’s worth noting that two of their losses came against Top 25 opponents Cincinnati and BYU. Houston has also had to endure constant interruption to its schedule, seeing eight games postponed or canceled due to COVID-19.
Holgorsen is asking his team to rally around the challenges they’ve faced and bring a strong effort to the New Mexico Bowl. “Let’s do something to feel good about what happened in 2020. Let’s get a ring, put it on the shelf and … tell your kids about it one day,” he said in a recent radio appearance on SportTalk 790.
In order to finish the season on a high note, the Cougars need more efficient production from quarterback Clayton Tune, who averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt against Memphis. A healthy Marquez Stevenson and Tre’Von Bradley would help, however, as the two receivers should be available after suiting up in just five games this year. No Houston receiver has gained more than 352 yards this season, but Stevenson led the team with four touchdown receptions.
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Betting Pick: Hawaii +13
Bowl games often come down to motivation levels, and I expect the Rainbow Warriors to be a lot more excited for a rare mainland bowl game than a Houston squad closing out another losing year. I’ll grab the points, but an outright upset wouldn’t be surprising either.
- Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
- The OVER is 5-1 in Houston’s last 6 playoff games.
- The OVER is 16-6 in Hawaii’s last 22 non-conference games.
