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NCAAF Free Pick: Central Michigan Chippewas vs Toledo Rockets

Prediction Machine NCAAF Free Pick: Central Michigan Chippewas vs Toledo Rockets

Central Michigan Chippewas vs Toledo Rockets (TOL -11.5, O/U 52.5)

The Toledo Rockets will host the Central Michigan Chippewas in a battle of 3-2 teams looking to reassert themselves in the MAC West title conversation. Both squads enter with high-flying offenses, combining to average north of 900 yards and 70 points per game through five weeks. The Chippewas will turn to their backup QB once again this week after he filled in against Ball State, but Toledo’s offense goes into this matchup fully equipped to succeed.

The current OVER/UNDER for this game is listed at 52.5 points, but we’re projecting a back-and-forth affair between these two teams. Our NCAAF model projects a final score of 33.0-25.2 in favor of Toledo, giving us a solid edge on the OVER in this one. Therefore, we’re suggesting a $131 wager on OVER 52.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NCAAF picks are 522-483 ATS (51.9%) and 564-420 on O/Us (57.3%) since the start of 2019, profiting +74.31 units, or $7,431 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to predictionmachine.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to every NCAAF projection.

Why will the total go OVER?

  • Central Michigan is allowing the most passing yards per game in the MAC, surrendering north of 300 yards per contest. Their 9.7 yards allowed per attempt ranks 123rd among 127 FBS teams. Toledo’s offense thrives through the passing attack, posting 9.1 yards per attempt and a MAC-best 338 yards per game.
  • The Chippewas’ offensive strength is rushing the ball, which shouldn’t be affected by backup QB Ty Brock’s insertion. If anything, Brock taking the snaps should enhance the running game as he’s posted 92 yards on 18 attempts (5.2 yards per carry) and two touchdowns on the season. Overall, the Chippewas have posted 5.38 yards per carry and 222 rushing yards per game. Toledo’s numbers look good against the run for the season, but they’ve faced the MAC’s two worst rushing teams (Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois) to help bolster their stats. They surrendered 153 yards on 5.5 yards per carry against Western Michigan, the most comparable team to Central Michigan in terms of rushing success in the MAC.

Chippewas vs Rockets: How to bet the spread

Toledo is currently favored by 11.5 points over Central Michigan in Saturday’s matchup. Our model is projecting a final score of 33.0-25.2 in favor of the Rockets. With a projected margin of victory of 7.8 points and a spread north of 11, we have a solid edge on Central Michigan in this one. Our model recommends a $75 wager on CENTRAL MICHIGAN +11.5 for an average $100 bettor.