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Armed Forces Bowl Preview: Southern Miss vs Tulane

Justin McMillan NCAAF Football Armed Forces Bowl Betting Preview Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Tulane Green Wave

Former conference rivals Tulane and Southern Miss both hope their late-season struggles are behind them when they collide in the Armed Forces Bowl. Tulane lost three straight and five of six down the stretch, while Southern Miss was outscored 64-27 in its final two games.

Armed Forces Bowl Matchup Information
  • Spread: Tulane -7
  • Total: 57
  • Date/Time: January 4, 11:30 a.m. ET
  • Location: Fort Worth, Texas
  • Stadium: Amon G. Carter Stadium
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Southern Miss vs Tulane Matchup Report & Updated Odds

Armed Forces Bowl Odds Analysis

After opening at Tulane -6, this line briefly moved to -7.5 before settling in at a touchdown at the time of writing. The Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as chalk of 7 points or more.

Southern Miss News & Notes

A 5-1 start to conference play had the Golden Eagles in contention for a Conference USA title before they completed the regular season with a pair of blowout losses. After falling 28-10 at home to Western Kentucky as a 3-point favorite, Southern Miss lost 34-17 at Florida Atlantic in its season finale.

The Golden Eagles held FAU to just 12 first downs and 156 passing yards, but five turnovers by Southern Miss quarterback Jack Abraham directly led to several of the Owls’ scores. Abraham has struggled to protect the ball in each of his first two seasons with Southern Miss, throwing 25 interceptions and losing seven fumbles. He’s also thrown seven picks to just five touchdowns in his last five games.

Southern Miss might match up well with Tulane, however, because of how effectively the Golden Eagles defend the run. USM allowed just 111.8 yards per game on the ground this season and has not given up more than 151 in any of its last eight outings — something that bodes well against the Green Wave’s 13th-ranked rushing attack.

Tulane News & Notes

For the Green Wave, 2019 was a tale of two seasons. The first half of the campaign was promising as Tulane won five of its first six, the lone loss coming at Auburn as a 15-point underdog. Those fortunes were flipped down the stretch as the Green Wave lost five of their final six — although a tough schedule was certainly a factor.

All five of those losses came against bowl-bound opposition (Memphis, Navy, Temple, Central Florida and Southern Methodist), and three of them came by a single possession. Tulane was an underdog in four of its last six games, going 3-3 ATS.

Tulane might be without its most productive running back, senior Corey Dauphine, due to a wrist injury. However, the Green Wave’s ground attack has spread the ball around all year, with six different players carrying the ball 30 times or more. Quarterback Justin McMillan was Tulane’s leading rusher, gaining 704 yards and scoring 12 TDs on the ground, as the Green Wave finished the season with nearly 3,000 running yards.

Tulane has been very efficient in the red zone as well, scoring on 39 of 44 trips inside the opposition’s 20-yard line (including 33 touchdowns).

Betting Pick: UNDER 57.5

Southern Miss has gone UNDER in five straight games and in seven of its last nine, and I like how the Golden Eagles defense matches up against Tulane’s ground attack.

Shark Bites
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in Southern Miss’s last 5 games (avg. combined score: 41.4).
  • Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games as a favorite.
  • Southern Miss is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games vs Tulane (avg. winning margin: 22.0).