The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders and UAB Blazers won’t need to spend much time in the film room this week as they prepare to meet in the Conference USA championship game. This Saturday’s clash will be the second time in seven days that the two teams have taken the same field in Murfreesboro, having concluded their regular seasons against each other last Saturday. Middle Tennessee (8-4 overall, 7-1 C-USA) routed the Blazers (9-3, 7-1) 27-3 in that matchup to clinch home field in the Conference USA final.
Neither of these programs has much experience playing for conference crowns. Middle Tennessee is making its first title game appearance since splitting the Sun Belt championship with Troy in 2006, while UAB’s C-USA West win this season was the first division title in Blazers history. MTSU is 2.5-point home chalk to beat the Blazers for the second straight week.
- The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the teams (avg. combined score: 44.75).
- Middle Tennessee State is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games at home.
- UAB is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 conference games.
Middle Tennessee State vs UAB Game Center
BLAZERS ON TWO-GAME SKID AFTER WINNING EIGHT STRAIGHT
Did the Blazers peak too soon this season? That may be the fear these days in Birmingham after UAB closed the regular season with consecutive losses, falling 41-20 at Texas A&M before dropping the season finale to Middle Tennessee State.
During the Blazers’ eight-game winning streak, they held opponents to seven points or less in five of those outings while never allowing more than 24. But over the past two weeks, UAB’s been lit up for 68 points. And on offense, the Blazers scored just seven points through the first three quarters of their loss to the Aggies, then managed just a field goal and 99 yards of offense vs the Blue Raiders.
It’s worth noting that UAB didn’t have much to play for over the last two weeks, having sewn up first place in the C-USA West by early November. The Blazers were 17-point road underdogs against Texas A&M in a step-up game against an SEC foe, and Middle Tennessee State had a lot more to play for last week. But if UAB did intentionally take its foot off the gas the last two weeks, it’ll be interesting to see if the Blazers can pick up where they left off. We all saw how Michigan got blown up last week at Ohio State after playing its previous two games against conference lightweights.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE ALL BUSINESS AFTER CLINCHING TRIP TO FINAL
For a school with just two conference title wins in its history, Middle Tennessee State didn’t do much celebrating after last week’s victory over the Blazers that clinched home field in this year’s final. Sure, a little confetti fell to the ground after the final whistle, but the lack of exuberance from players and coaching staff was noticeable.
Maybe the Blue Raiders didn’t want to give the visiting Blazers any extra motivation. MTSU players knew they would have to take on UAB once again this week, and they know that presents a unique challenge. “We’ve got to be mentally tough … because it’s hard to beat a team twice,” linebacker Khalil Brooks told reporters.
That may be true, but the Blue Raiders should feel pretty good about their chances based on last week’s result – especially the defense, which held the Blazers attack under 100 total yards.
LOOK FOR THIS ONE TO STAY LOW
The trends seem to point to a low-scoring affair in this one. The last four meetings between the teams have gone UNDER, Middle Tennessee has gone UNDER in four straight at home, and UAB has gone UNDER in seven of its last 10 on the road.
It’s not just trends that make me think this will be a defensive battle, however. I’m also expecting these teams to play tightly and conservatively as they make a rare appearance in a conference championship game. Neither squad has a lot of big-play potential in its running game so if we see coaches play things tight to the vest, we’re not likely to see many fireworks.
