Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers

Facing the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in December usually results in a loss, so normally we wouldn’t bat an eyelash at the 2-9 Arizona Cardinals being 14-point underdogs in this exact scenario. But these aren’t the same old Packers. They’ve lost four of their last five games and their playoff chances are desperately slim – spotting them two touchdowns seems like a risky play.

Cardinals vs Packers Game Center

MY BET THIS SUNDAY: OVER 44.5

While I’ve mentioned that these aren’t the same old Packers we’re used to seeing, this also isn’t the same Cardinals defense we’ve been accustomed to in years past.

Currently with the NFL’s third-worst run defense, Arizona’s passing defense has started to falter recently, including an absolutely horrendous effort last week, when they allowed Chargers QB Philip Rivers to complete his first 25 passes, setting an NFL record, en route to a 45-10 humbling.

Green Bay has had a generally strong rushing attack this season, spearheaded by the explosive Aaron Jones, and still has a guy named Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. If Arizona puts forth the effort in Lambeau that it did at Los Angeles’ StubHub Center, we’re expecting Green Bay to put up a lot of points in the contest.

The reason I like the OVER, however, is not just because Green Bay is facing a struggling Arizona defense, but also because the Packers defensive unit is not strong either. Sitting in the bottom third of the league in run defense, Green Bay allowed 91 rushing yards last week to a Vikings team that had topped that mark just three times all season, and prior to that yielded 135-plus rushing yards in five straight games. The Packers also have allowed at least 24 points in six of their last seven games, so they are not coming in on a particularly strong note either.

Green Bay is going to score points, but there’s no reason to believe that they are going to stop points from being scored either, even against a meager Arizona offense. With a 14-point spread, I’m not entirely comfortable betting on Green Bay to cover, but OVER a modest 44.5-point total I’m entirely willing to bet on.

WHO’S PROTECTING AARON?

It’s like déjà vu all over again for the Green Bay Packers. During their Week 12 loss to Minnesota at U.S. Bank Stadium, the Packers lost All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari and left guard Lane Taylor to injuries in the third quarter.

It’s eerily reminiscent to last season, when the Packers also lost Bakhtiari and Taylor to injuries in the same game … against Minnesota at U.S. Bank Stadium.

The extent of the injuries has yet to be determined, but losing the left side of his offensive line is bad news for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is already the fourth-most sacked quarterback in the league, getting dropped 34 times already.

A depleted offensive line would give Arizona a glimmer of hope of being able to provide defensive resistance, as their 30 sacks puts them squarely in the middle of the league, but they still have a lethal pass rusher in linebacker Chandler Jones. Keep an eye on the status of Green Bay’s linemen, as their absence could be key to determining whether Green Bay can pull away from the Cards this week.

THE AGELESS WONDER, LARRY LEGEND

Despite the questions every year of him slowing down, despite the questions of him succeeding without a solid quarterback, despite the slow start in 2018 and despite the fact that he’s 35 years old, Larry Fitzgerald keeps producing.

Even though he didn’t record a touchdown through his first six weeks, the 11-time Pro Bowler has found the end zone in four of his last five games, and has five touchdowns on the season.  

Green Bay’s secondary has been league-average this season, so look for Fitzgerald to try to notch another score in Week 13 as he continues to be a valuable asset, even in the twilight of his career.