Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Both the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had disappointing seasons, with both heading into Week 17 with the playoffs nothing more than a dream for next year. The Falcons, however, are finishing strong and looking for their third straight win to end the campaign, but are just 2-5 SU on the road this season as they travel to Raymond James Stadium to face the Buccaneers. Tampa is a small 1.5-point favorite, but bettors may be more interested in the total of 51, as this game features the 11th- and 13th-ranked offenses in the league.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Game Center

WHY MY MONEY IS ON OVER 51 POINTS

Not only do we have a contest between two teams in the top half of the league in points scored, but they also are two of the league’s most porous defenses.

The Buccaneers enter the season’s final week allowing the third-most points in the league (28.7 per game), while Atlanta is currently seventh-worst in the NFL with 26.1 points per game against. Both teams are also weak against the pass, which bodes even better for the offenses: Tampa Bay has the league’s highest-ranked passing game, while Atlanta has the fifth-most yards per game. To add another layer of pass-happy statistics, the Bucs are 29th in the league, averaging just 95.4 yards per game on the ground, while Atlanta is 27th with 97.6 yards per game.

With a 1.5-point spread, this matchup is basically a pick’em game, with neither team having anything of consequence on the line. Without that extra motivation to win one way or the other, I’d expect that defensive intensity to be lacking, meaning the offenses should have a little more time and space to operate.

With two able quarterbacks, plus a bevy of offensive weapons including Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans and Adam Humphries – plus less-than-stellar running games – expect the ball to be thrown around … a lot.

Lots of passing + poor defenses + lack of running + nothing on the line = a high-scoring game. I don’t think we’re looking at Chiefs-Rams level scoring, but enough that I’d be confident in the OVER being a winning bet on Sunday.

MATT RYAN MOVING UP THE RANKS

With three passing touchdowns in last week’s 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan passed Warren Moon for 13th on the NFL’s all-time passing touchdown list.

Ryan, the third overall pick in 2008, has 293 passing touchdowns. Two more scores will see him leapfrog Carson Palmer for 12th on the all-time list.

Despite the team’s struggles, Ryan has turned in another solid season. He’s third in the NFL with 4,546 passing yards, fourth with 33 touchdown passes, has the third-lowest interception percentage (1.1 percent) and his 69.3 completion percentage is fourth among all quarterbacks this season.

Ryan has already set his second-best season high for touchdown passes, currently short of his career-high 38, and with 399 more passing yards will top his previous single-season best of 4,944 yards.

With a couple of career highs within reach, and a less-than-imposing defense awaiting him, Ryan could be in store for a big game to finish off the 2018 season.

BUCS NEED TO MAKE JAMEIS DECISION

Former No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston has had an up-and-down season in 2018.

On the one hand, he’s had his highest passing yards per game average (287.9) in games he’s started, his 10.7-yard average depth of throw is the 13th-highest among 517 QBs with at least 100 passing attempts in a season since 2007, and he is completing a career-best 64.7 percent of his passes.

On the flip side, he has a career-worst interception rate (3.8 percent), he has the fifth-most interceptions in the league (despite appearing in only 10 games) and his touchdown-to-interception ratio is almost 1:1.

His inconsistency has been maddening for the Buccaneers, as he has shown flashes of brilliance, but is still too careless with the ball. With the fourth-year pro set to see his salary jump from $7.9 million to $20.9 million next season, Tampa Bay needs to decide if Winston is in its future plans. While the decision may already be made, finishing the season on a strong note – and leaving a good taste in management’s mouth – could go a long way to keeping him around for at least one more year if his fate is still up in the air.