Whether Cleveland was jobbed by a questionable instant replay review and re-spot is irrelevant. The Browns shot themselves in the foot with four turnovers and allowed a dazed and confused Raiders offense to rack up 565 total yards on their lauded up-and-coming defense. The overtime loss at Oakland dropped Cleveland to 1-2-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread on the season.
The red-hot Ravens defense held Pittsburgh under 300 total yards, forced two turnovers and posted a second-half shutout. Now 3-1 SU and ATS, the Ravens opened Week 5 as 1.5 favorites but are now up to 3-point road favorites at Cleveland. The Browns moneyline is +125, while the OVER/UNDER total is 47.5.
- The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs the Browns.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Ravens’ last three games vs the Browns (avg. combined score: 35.33).
- The Ravens are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games after consecutive wins.
ARE THE RAVENS AN ELITE NFL TEAM?
We’re a month into the season and the Baltimore Ravens average 308 passing yards and nearly 31 points per game. Wasn’t it six weeks ago when we wondered when Lamar Jackson would replace Joe Flacco? The veteran quarterback is spreading the wealth as six different receivers already have double-digit reception totals. Flacco connected with 11 different receivers for 363 yards against the Steelers.
This weekend he’ll face a weakened Browns secondary as the team fears it may have lost starting cornerback Terrance Mitchell for the season with a fractured forearm. Cleveland has allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 278 yards per game with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions.
BROWNS DEFENSE REGRESSES AGAINST RAIDERS
In the two games before Oakland, Cleveland’s defense held the Jets and Saints to less than 276 total yards and 4.4 average yards per play. The Raiders averaged 6.3 YPP with Marshawn Lynch averaging 6.5 yards on 20 carries. It’s the first time he’s averaged 6.5 rush yards or more on 20-plus carries in a game since November 2014.
Make no mistake, the reason that Sportsbook line moved from BAL -1.5 to BAL -3 is because of the Browns’ defensive woes and recent loss of Mitchell.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: FLACCO’S ELITE ACCURACY
During his 11-year career, Flacco has completed nearly 62 percent of his passes with 208 touchdowns and 132 interceptions. Through four games this season, he’s tossed eight touchdowns to just two interceptions, which both came against the Bengals.
Baltimore is 66-14 straight up and 55-23-2 ATS when its franchise quarterback does NOT throw an interception.
However, and this is jarring, when Flacco throws one or more picks in a game, Baltimore is 39-54 SU and 32-56-5 ATS.
The Browns are tied for third with seven interceptions through their first four games.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: BROWNS SECONDARY
Considering how much the Browns have struggled to compete and beat the Ravens over the last decade, it’s challenging to find a trend that lifts the spirits of potential Cleveland backers.
Oakland game aside, their pass defense is improving and to continue the advanced Flacco trend above, know that the Browns are 50-10 straight up and 38-18-4 against the spread when their defense finishes with one or more interceptions. Just one pick of the opposing quarterback and it’s like the Browns turn into the New England Patriots.
CLEVELAND, OH FORECAST
Partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-70s, humidity near 80 percent and 40 percent chance of afternoon showers.
Considering he’s connected on 100 percent of his extra-point attempts and 90 percent of his field-goal tries, it’s no surprise to learn Baltimore’s Justin Tucker has never missed a field-goal attempt on Cleveland’s home turf.
After replacing Zane Gonzalez, Greg Joseph is 4-for-4 on field goals and 3-for-3 on extra points.
MY PICK
Baker Mayfield isn’t Ben Roethlisberger and he isn’t running the Steelers offense. It’s profound, I know, but also a big red flag when analyzing this AFC North showdown.
If an offense featuring Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Vance McDonald struggled to score points against the Ravens, Mayfield may scream mayday. The rookie quarterback has the Browns offense on the right trajectory, but Baltimore’s defense remains elite as they’ve allowed fewer than 194 passing yards, 83 rushing yards and just 16.3 points per game to date.
As is the case with most Browns games, this one goes down to the wire, but the Ravens win and cover.
