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Super Bowl 54 Stats and Trends Betting Primer

Super Bowl 54 Betting Trends

The Super Bowl is perhaps the greatest tradition in all of sports, and within that tradition is a tradition of underdogs covering the spread. Over the last 12 Super Bowls, the underdog has covered the number nine times. This includes outright wins in six of the last eight, and with a minuscule spread in Super Bowl 54, we could very well see the underdog tradition continue.

With this being a super short spread, I should also point out that underdogs have fared well in this spot. In the last eight instances of a Super Bowl with a spread of less than 3 points, the underdog has been an outright winner six times.

Totals bettors will also be interested to know that the OVER has hit in 60 percent of Super Bowls going back to 1985.

In the last eight instances of a Super Bowl with a spread of less than 3 points, the underdog has been an outright winner six times.

These trends, of course, have nothing to do with the Chiefs and 49ers and this year’s edition of the game. The funny thing is, using more recent and logical numbers specifically relating to the two teams playing in the game isn’t always the best barometer for handicapping Super Bowl matchups either, as the game has produced wacky results over the years that only liars will say they predicted.

Look at last year’s game – it had a sky-high total of 56 points with an avalanche of evidence to support a high-scoring game. The Patriots and Rams then went on to combine for a grand total of 16 points with just one red-zone trip between them.

The game before that, journeyman quarterback Nick Foles beat the GOAT as a 4.5-point dog, with the teams combining to go OVER the total by 25 points.

Then, of course, we have 28-3, Malcolm Butler on the goal line, Peyton Manning and the high-powered Broncos offense scoring just eight points vs the Seahawks, the lights going out in New Orleans and the Giants winning outright as a 12.5-point underdog.

There’s not a whole lot of data we could have relied on to accurately make a prediction on those outcomes, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try. Below is a list of my favorite nuggets for each team coming into the game. With the two best teams in the league going at it, keep in mind some of these numbers will contradict each other.

Hopefully, these numbers will give your Super Bowl betting experience a boost. Either way, enjoy the game, good luck, and KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

For more on Super Bowl 54, head over to our Super Bowl section and for more help with your handicapping, check out our 49ers vs Chiefs matchup page.

49ers
  • San Francisco is 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season (4-1 SU).
  • The 49ers are averaging 32.33 points scored over their last six games.
  • The 49ers defense ranked 15th in opponent third-down conversion percentage on the road compared to second at home.
  • The 49ers rank 25th in opponent red-zone TD scoring percentage for the season at 61.36 percent. Over their last three games, that number is up to 75 percent.
  • The 49ers have allowed the fewest passing plays of 20 or more yards and the second-fewest passing plays of 40 or more yards.
  • The 49ers are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of San Francisco’s last 12 games.
  • The 49ers are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • Previous to the NFC championship game, Raheem Mostert only had one other game in which he eclipsed 100 rushing yards. His O/U carries is set at 16.5, and he topped that just once in the regular season.
  • The 49ers are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in the playoffs as road underdogs.
Chiefs
  • The Chiefs are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games. (Avg winning margin: 16.13)
  • Over their last three games, the Chiefs have a third-down conversion rate of 53.57 percent, which is up from their season average of 47.32 percent. Their red-zone TD conversion percentage is at 83.33, up from their season average of 59.02.
  • In road games this season, the Chiefs rank first in opponent red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • Kansas City has allowed just 15.29 points per game over its last seven games.
  • In their two games after a bye this season, the Chiefs have wins of 31 and 20 points.
  • The Chiefs have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their playoff games.
  • The Chiefs have the most passing plays of 40 or more yards this season.
  • The Chiefs are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games as favorite.
  • The Chiefs are 7-1 SU in their last eight games on the road.
  • In four career playoff games, Patrick Mahomes has 11 TDs and zero INTs with a 115 QB rating.
  • Patrick Mahomes has seven or more rush attempts in three straight games.