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Week 7 NFL Stats and Trends Betting Primer

Week 7 NFL Betting Texans

I get the idea of what a trap line is, but I think the notion that oddsmakers intentionally set a fishy line as a way to trick us is ridiculous.

Although I don’t believe that oddsmakers are on a conference call each morning deciding which game to “trap” us with, I believe the idea of a trap line can wreak havoc on our handicapping.

I think trap lines are figments of our imagination and when bettors see a line they don’t agree with, it fools them into thinking sportsbooks are begging us to take one side over the other. In other words, trap lines aren’t real, but the suspicion of them is incredibly real and it’s leading to way too much overthinking.

Trap lines aren’t real, but the suspicion of them is incredibly real and it’s leading to way too much overthinking.

I fell victim to this in Week 6 and immediately learned my lesson. When I saw the Saints open as a 1.5-point underdog in Jacksonville, I was ready to pull the trigger. They were coming off three straight wins and covers and are the superior team on paper, but then I started to overthink it. It looked like too much of a gift, others in the industry that I respect were supporting the Jags and money was coming in on Jacksonville, seeing them close at +2.5.

So what did I do? I took the Jags because I listened to too much noise and bought into the trap line narrative and lost the bet. I guess you could say I got trapped by what was perceived as a trap line, but going forward I need to trust it when my instincts and the analytics line up.

Don’t go too nuts using the poor logic associated with trap lines and public money when making your picks, because it’ll often backfire and you’ll get trapped too.

Wild Trends in Divisional Games

So far throughout the season I’ve been noticing some absolutely INSANE trends for divisional games and there’s some juicy ones this week to consider with your handicapping:

  • The Chiefs are 22-2 SU in their last 24 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Vikings have gone UNDER in 27 of their last 35 divisional games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 25 of the Colts’ last 31 games vs their division at home.
  • The Eagles are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Patriots’ last 10 games vs divisional opponents.

I’m seeing monster numbers like this in divisional matchups each week and although there’s no league-wide trend that shows much different results for divisional games as a whole, there are certain teams that stand out for better or worse vs divisional opponents.

I think it simply has to do with familiarity. Coaches do double the amount of prep for divisional games and players have double the experience due to playing divisional counterparts twice a year, so maybe it makes sense that some teams would produce similar results in these games.

Consider looking into past results for divisional matchups as part of your handicapping routine by visiting the Odds Shark Database, which allows you to deep-dive into betting history to explore dozens of different betting situations. Maybe disregard results for teams with relatively new head coaches and lots of player turnover, but otherwise, this is just one more thing to consider when analyzing matchups.

Here’s all the best stats and trends for Week 7. Good luck, and as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Chiefs-Broncos
  • The Broncos rank third in net yards per play over their last three games.
  • The Chiefs are 22-2 SU in their last 24 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chiefs are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chiefs are 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Broncos' last 15 games. (Avg combined score: 37.4)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos' last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Chiefs' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 69.5)
  • The Broncos are 3-9 SU and ATS in their last 12 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Broncos are 2-7 SU and ATS in their last nine games at night.
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Broncos.
Texans-Colts
  • The Texans have a league-best red-zone TD scoring percentage of 71.43. The Colts ranks 30th in opponent red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Texans lead the league in third-down conversion percentage. The Colts rank 27th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 25 of the Colts' last 31 games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Texans' last six games vs the Colts. (Avg combined score: 42.0)
  • The Texans are 3-14 SU in their last 17 games on the road vs the Colts.
  • The Texans are 7-2 SU in their last nine games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Texans' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 52.83)
  • The Colts are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games as favorite.
  • The Colts are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games after a bye.
49ers-Redskins
  • Over their last three games, the Redskins have a red-zone TD scoring rate of 0 percent. In this span, the 49ers rank second in opponent red-zone TD percentage.
  • The 49ers are first in net yards per play this season. The Redskins are 27th.
  • The Redskins rank 31st in third-down conversion rate. The 49ers are fourth in opponent third-down conversion rate.
  • The 49ers rank second in time of possession. The Redskins are 31st.
  • The 49ers are 5-0 SU in their last five games. (Avg winning margin: 16.6)
  • The Redskins are 0-7 SU in their last seven games at home. (Avg losing margin: 18.0)
  • The 49ers are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games as road favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Redskins' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 44.86)
  • The Redskins are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when hosting a West Coast team.
Cardinals-Giants
  • The Giants are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after an ATS loss.
  • The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Cardinals are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Giants' last three games at home. (Avg combined score: 35.67)
  • The Giants are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games at home vs teams with losing records.
Chargers-Titans
  • Over their last three games, the Titans rank 30th in red-zone TD scoring percentage. The Chargers rank fifth in opponent red-zone TD scoring percentage in this span.
  • The Titans are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Titans' last five games. (Avg combined score: 26.8)
  • The Chargers are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Chargers' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 40.8)
  • The Titans are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games as home favorites.
  • The Chargers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games vs the Titans.
Dolphins-Bills
  • The Bills rank second in red-zone TD scoring percentage. Miami ranks last in opponent red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Dolphins rank 30th in third-down conversion percentage. The Bills rank fifth in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The Dolphins are 0-8 SU in their last eight games. (Avg losing margin: 24.63)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bills' last five games. (Avg combined score: 32.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Dolphins' last 10 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 47.6)
  • The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a double-digit favorite.
  • The Dolphins are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Dolphins are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games on the road vs the Bills.
Jaguars-Bengals
  • The Bengals rank last in red-zone TD scoring percentage. The Jaguars rank sixth in opponent red-zone TD scoring percentage. The Jags also rank 29th in red-zone TD scoring percentage, so expect lots of field goals.
  • The Jaguars are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games.
  • The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
  • The Jaguars are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
  • The Bengals are 0-8 SU in their last eight games. (Avg losing margin: 9.13)
  • The Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Bengals' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 54.0)
Rams-Falcons
  • Over their last three games, the Falcons rank fifth in red-zone TD scoring percentage. The Rams rank 28th in opponent red-zone TD scoring percentage in this span.
  • The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the road.
  • The Rams are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games on the East Coast.
  • The Rams are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games as road favorites.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Rams' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 43.57)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Falcons' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 43.0)
  • The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Falcons are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games when hosting a West Coast team.
Ravens-Seahawks
  • The Ravens are 26th in net yards per play over their last three games.
  • The Seahawks are 19-3 SU in their last 22 games when hosting an East Coast team.
  • The Ravens are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Seahawks are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Seahawks' last 15 games. (Avg combined score: 52.53)
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Ravens' last four games. (Avg combined score: 53.75)
  • The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at home.
  • The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorite.
  • The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.
Raiders-Packers
  • The Raiders are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS win.
  • The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Packers' last four games. (Avg combined score: 51.75)
  • The Packers are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games as home favorites.
  • The Raiders are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games after a bye.
  • The Raiders are 0-7 SU in their last seven games vs the Packers. (Avg losing margin: 21.43)
Vikings-Lions
  • Both teams rank in the top eight in opponent red-zone TD conversion percentage.
  • The Vikings are first in net yards per play over their last three games. The Lions are 24th in this span.
  • The Vikings have gone UNDER in 27 of their last 35 divisional games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Vikings' last 12 games. (Avg combined score: 39.5)
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Lions' last 12 games. (Avg combined score: 39.58)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Vikings' last six games vs the Lions. (Avg combined score: 35.0)
  • The Vikings are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games in October.
  • The Vikings are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games in the early afternoon.
  • The Lions are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Lions.
Saints-Bears
  • Over their last three games, the Saints rank fifth in net yards per play. The Bears are 21st in this span.
  • The Saints are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Saints' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 33.5)
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Bears' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 30.6)
  • The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
  • The Saints are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games in October.
  • The Bears are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.
Eagles-Cowboys
  • The Eagles are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Eagles are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games at night.
  • The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Cowboys' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 48.44)
  • The Cowboys are 7-1 SU in their last eight games at home.
  • The Cowboys are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Cowboys' last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Cowboys are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games before a bye.
Patriots-Jets
  • The Jets rank last in third-down conversion rate. The Patriots rank first in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The Patriots are 7-0 SU in their last seven games vs the Jets. (Avg winning margin: 19.29)
  • The Patriots are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games. (Avg winning margin: 19.82)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Patriots' last seven games vs the Jets. (Avg combined score: 40.14)
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Patriots' last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at night.
  • The Jets are 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Jets' last 10 games at home. (Avg combined score: 50.9)
  • The Jets are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs divisional opponents.