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Week 3 NFL Betting Primer

Welcome to the home of the 2020 NFL Betting Primer – your source for the best NFL stats and trends that you (probably) can’t find anywhere else on the internet.

Each week, I’ll comb through just about everything there is to look at and provide a quick list of my favorite nuggets for every single game to help you with your handicapping. A fresh article will be posted each Thursday, so keep an eye on my Twitter feed where I’ll post as soon as it’s ready.

Aside from my favorite trends, I like to look at stats such as yards per play, third-down conversion rate, red-zone TD scoring percentage, time of possession, sacks/QB pressures and turnovers. If I see some outliers that provide one team or one side of the total with a big edge over the other, I’ll be sure to share.

Keep in mind for the first few weeks of the season that many trends and stats need to be taken with a grain of salt because they don’t always carry over to a new season. All stats will become more relevant the deeper we get into a season as bigger sample sizes are more ideal for handicapping. 

How to use betting trends:

It’s pretty simple – make sure there’s some logic to back up the trend. If the trend dates back to the early 1990s, spanning many coaching staffs and hundreds of players coming and going, then it doesn’t carry much weight. Sure, it makes for an interesting historical stat, but it’s not something to base a bet on.

The same goes for absurd trends crossing multiple variables like a team’s record in retractable-roof stadiums vs non-divisional opponents in the late-afternoon time slot in November. That foolishness is nothing more than coincidence and you won’t find trends like that in this article. 

HOWEVER, some teams excel or follow a consistent pattern in certain situations and it’s important to consider these spots, especially for teams with long-standing head coaches and QBs and also in divisional matchups.

Betting trends should simply be used as a starting point for your handicap. Remember that oddsmakers always adjust. You should always have stats to support a trend if you’re betting on it to continue because every matchup needs to be looked at individually.

With that out of the way, LET’S GET RIGHT INTO THE ACTION!

Week 3 NFL Stats and Trends:

Miami at Jacksonville TNF
  • Miami ranks last in yards per play allowed, while Jacksonville ranks 26th.
  • Jacksonville ranks first in third-down conversion %, while Miami is 26th in opponent third-down conversion %.
  • Jacksonville ranks 25th in sack % allowed and 28th in defensive sack %.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Dolphins' last five games. (Avg combined score: 54.2)
  • The Dolphins are 6-19 SU in their last 25 games as an underdog.
  • The Dolphins are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in September.
  • The Dolphins are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games at night.
  • The Jaguars are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.
Chicago at Atlanta
  • Atlanta ranks 32nd in opponent completion %. Chicago is fourth.
  • The Bears rank fourth in points allowed. Atlanta is 32nd.
  • The Bears rank fourth in opponent red-zone TD %. Atlanta is 32nd.
  • The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • The Bears are 4-17 SU in their last 21 games as road underdogs.
  • The Falcons are 20-7 SU in their last 27 games at home in September.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Falcons' last 14 games at home in September.
  • The Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs the Falcons.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Bears' last 10 games vs the Falcons. (Avg combined score: 31.8)
LA Rams at Buffalo
  • The Bills rank third in yards per play while the Rams are sixth.
  • The Rams rank third in third-down conversion %. The Bills are eighth.
  • The Rams have the fifth-fewest penalty yards per game. The Bills are 24th.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Rams' last five games. (Avg combined score: 55.6)
  • The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
  • The Rams are 5-16 SU in their last 21 games as an underdog.
  • The Rams are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games in September.
  • The Rams are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the East Coast.
  • The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bills' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 32.0)
  • The Bills are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games as a favorite.
Las Vegas at New England
  • The Patriots are seventh in yards per play. The Raiders are 30th in yards per play allowed.
  • The Patriots are fourth in third-down conversion %, while the Raiders are 30th in opponent third-down conversion %.
  • The Patriots have generated the fourth-most QB pressures this season and Vegas’ offensive line is severely beat up.
  • The Raiders are 4-16 SU in their last 20 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Raiders' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 45.5)
  • The Raiders are 3-9 SU and ATS in their last 12 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Patriots are 23-3 SU in their last 26 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Patriots' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 36.86)
  • The Raiders are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs the Patriots.
Washington at Cleveland
  • Washington ranks 31st in yards per play. The Browns are eighth in yards per play allowed.
  • Washington is 32nd in third-down conversion %.
  • Washington ranks 30th in sack % allowed. The Browns are fifth in sack %.
  • The Browns are 5-0 SU in their last five games as home favorites.
  • Washington is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Washington’s last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 39.25)
  • The Browns are 5-14 SU in their last 19 games after a win.
Tennessee at Minnesota
  • The Vikings rank 31st in points allowed.
  • The Titans rank seventh in third-down conversion %. The Vikings are 29th.
  • The Titans are fourth in sack % allowed. The Vikings are 28th.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Titans' last 15 games. (Avg combined score: 51.2)
  • The Titans are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • The Titans are 8-1 SU in their last nine games as a favorite.
  • The Vikings are 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.
  • The Vikings are 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 games at home in September.
  • The Vikings are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games after a loss.
San Francisco at NY Giants
  • The Giants are last in points per game. The 49ers are sixth in points per game allowed.
  • The 49ers are eighth in yards per play and fourth in yards per play allowed. The Giants are 28th in yards per play.
  • The Giants are 31st in red-zone TD %. The 49ers are sixth in opponent red-zone TD %.
  • The Giants are sixth in sack %. The 49ers are 29th in sack % allowed.
  • The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
  • The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the East Coast.
  • The Giants are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games when hosting a West Coast team.
  • The Giants are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Giants' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 49.6)
  • The Giants are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after an ATS win.
Cincinnati at Philadelphia
  • The teams rank 29th and 32nd in yards per play. The Eagles are tied for sixth in yards per play allowed.
  • The Eagles have averaged the second-fewest penalty yards per game.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Bengals' last six games. (Avg combined score: 52.67)
  • The Bengals are 0-13 SU in their last 13 games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 8.62)
  • The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Eagles' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 34.25)
  • The Eagles are 17-6 SU in their last 23 games as home favorites.
  • The Bengals are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games vs the Eagles.
Houston at Pittsburgh
  • The Texans rank 29th in points per game while the Steelers are sixth in points allowed.
  • These teams rank 27th and 26th in third-down conversion %.
  • Pittsburgh is third in sack % while Houston is 31st in sack % allowed.
  • The Steelers are tied for first in rushing yards per attempt allowed.
  • The Texans are 30th in time of possession.
  • The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The Texans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Steelers are 12-0 SU in their last 12 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Steelers' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 33.6)
  • The Steelers are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games at home in September.
NY Jets at Indianapolis
  • The Jets ranks 31st in points per game, 30th in yards per play, 28th in third-down conversion %, 32nd in red-zone TD %, 29th in penalty yards and 31st in time of possession.
  • The Colts are eighth in points allowed, first in yards per play allowed, sixth in opponent third-down conversion %, first in sack % and second in time of possession.
  • The Jets are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in September.
  • The Colts are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games as home favorites.
Carolina at LA Chargers
  • The Panthers rank 27th in points allowed. The Chargers are fifth.
  • The Panthers are last in sack %.
  • The Panthers are 26th in penalty yards.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Panthers' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 54.63)
  • The Panthers are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games. (Avg losing margin: 15.3)
  • The Chargers are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chargers' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 41.57)
Tampa Bay at Denver
  • The Broncos rank 30th in points per game, 27th in yards per play, 30th in third-down conversion %, 29th in red-zone TD %, and 27th in sack % allowed.
  • The Buccaneers are tied for first in rush yards allowed per attempt.
  • The Buccaneers have averaged the seventh-most penalty yards per game.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Buccaneers' last 16 games. (Avg combined score: 58.13)
  • The Buccaneers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as road favorites.
  • The Broncos are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Broncos' last 16 games at home. (Avg combined score: 37.31)
  • The Broncos are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games at home in September.
  • The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games at home after covering in their most recent home game.
  • The Broncos are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Broncos' last 15 games in the late afternoon.
Detroit at Arizona
  • These teams rank first and fifth in opponent third-down conversion %.
  • These teams rank second and third in opponent completion %.
  • Arizona has the fifth-highest sack %. Detroit ranks 25th.
  • The Lions are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The Lions are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games. (Avg losing margin: 9.18)
  • The Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • The Cardinals are 4-12-1 SU in their last 17 games at home.
  • The Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in September.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Lions' last 16 games vs the Cardinals. (Avg combined score: 47.56)
  • The Lions are 1-8-1 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs the Cardinals.
Dallas at Seattle
  • The Cowboys are fifth in yards per play. The Seahawks are 29th in yards per play allowed.
  • Seattle ranks 25th in third-down conversion % and 29th in opponent third-down conversion %.
  • The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The Cowboys are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Seahawks are 16-1 SU and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games at home in September.
  • The Cowboys are 1-4 SU in their last five games on the road vs the Seahawks.
Green Bay at New Orleans SNF
  • These teams rank first and sixth in points per game.
  • These teams rank 25th and 27th in opponent third-down conversion %.
  • These teams rank 30th and 31st in opponent red-zone TD %.
  • These teams have allowed the lowest and second-lowest sack %.
  • The Packers are first in time of possession. The Saints are 26th.
  • The Saints have the most penalty yards this season.
  • The Packers rank 27th in yards per play allowed. The Saints rank third.
  • The Packers are 8-1 SU in their last nine games.
  • The Packers are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games in September.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Packers' last 12 games on the road in September.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Saints' last eight games at home in September.
  • The Saints are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
  • The Saints are 22-6 SU in their last 28 games at home.
  • The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Packers' last nine games vs the Saints. (Avg combined score: 61.0)
Kansas City at Baltimore MNF
  • The Ravens rank third in points scored and first in points against.
  • The Ravens are fourth in yards per play and fifth in opponent yards per play.
  • The Chiefs are 29th in red-zone TD %.
  • The Chiefs have the third-highest sack % while the Ravens are last in sack % allowed.
  • The Chiefs are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games. (Avg winning margin: 14.27)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Chiefs' last three games on the road. (Avg combined score: 37.0)
  • The Chiefs are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
  • The Chiefs are 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games in September.
  • The Ravens are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games as a favorite.
  • The Ravens are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Ravens' last four games at home in September.
  • The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs other AFC opponents.
  • The Ravens are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at home after covering in their most recent home game.
  • The Chiefs are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Ravens.

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