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Week 15 NFL Betting Primer

Welcome to the home of the 2020 NFL Betting Primer – your source for the best NFL stats and trends that you (probably) can’t find anywhere else on the internet.

Each week, I’ll comb through just about everything there is to look at and provide a quick list of my favorite nuggets for every single game to help you with your handicapping. A fresh article will be posted each Thursday, so keep an eye on my Twitter feed where I’ll post as soon as it’s ready.

Aside from my favorite trends, I like to look at stats such as yards per play, third-down conversion rate, red-zone TD scoring percentage, time of possession, sacks/QB pressures and turnovers. If I see some outliers that provide one team or one side of the total with a big edge over the other, I’ll be sure to share.

Keep in mind for the first few weeks of the season that many trends and stats need to be taken with a grain of salt because they don’t always carry over to a new season. All stats become more relevant the deeper we get into a season as bigger sample sizes are more ideal for handicapping. 

How to use betting trends:

It’s pretty simple – make sure there’s some logic to back up the trend. If the trend dates back to the early 1990s, spanning many coaching staffs and hundreds of players coming and going, then it doesn’t carry much weight. Sure, it makes for an interesting historical stat, but it’s not something to base a bet on.

The same goes for absurd trends crossing multiple variables like a team’s record in retractable-roof stadiums vs non-divisional opponents in the late-afternoon time slot in November. That foolishness is nothing more than coincidence and you won’t find trends like that in this article. 

HOWEVER, some teams excel or follow a consistent pattern in certain situations and it’s important to consider these spots, especially for teams with long-standing head coaches and QBs and also in divisional matchups.

Betting trends should simply be used as a starting point for your handicap. Remember that oddsmakers always adjust. You should always have stats to support a trend if you’re betting on it to continue because every matchup needs to be looked at individually.

With that out of the way, LET’S GET RIGHT INTO THE ACTION!

Week 15 NFL Stats and Trends:

LA Chargers at Las Vegas 
  • Raiders home games have had an average combined score of 60.33.
  • These teams are first and seventh in third-down offense and 30th and 23rd in third-down defense.
  • The Raiders are last in yards allowed per play at home.
  • The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chargers are 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs divisional opponents. (Avg losing margin: 5.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Chargers' last 10 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 51.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Raiders' last 13 games. (Avg combined score: 57.0)
  • The Chargers are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 5.8)
  • The Raiders are 6-1 SU in their last seven games as a home favorite.
  • The Raiders are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chargers' last eight games vs the Raiders. (Avg combined score: 39.75)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 19 of the Raiders' last 25 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The visiting team is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games in this matchup.
Buffalo at Denver 
  • The Broncos have a league-worst -11.2 average point margin at home. They average a league-low 15.7 points per game at home.
  • The Broncos average the seventh-fewest penalty yards per game. The Bills average the third-most.
  • The Bills are 6-1 SU in their last seven games.
  • The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs the Broncos.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Bills' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 53.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Broncos' last 21 games at home. (Avg combined score: 39.14)
  • The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The Broncos are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Bills are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road vs the Broncos.
Carolina at Green Bay 
  • The Packers have allowed the second-lowest sack percentage this season while the Panthers have the fifth-lowest sack %.
  • The Packers have an average point margin at home of +10.5 compared to +3.4 on the road. They also lead the NFL in net yards per play at home.
  • Green Bay is second in third-down conversion %. Carolina is 31st in third-down defense.
  • The Packers are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Panthers' last five games. (Avg combined score: 53.4)
  • The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the road.
  • The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss.
  • The Packers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home.
  • The Packers are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games on Saturday.
  • The Packers are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Panthers' last eight games vs the Packers. (Avg combined score: 55.5)
  • The visiting team is 0-5 ATS in the last five games in this matchup.
NY Jets at LA Rams
  • The Rams rank second in opponent third-down conversion %. The Jets are 31st in third-down offense.
  • The Rams are first in yards allowed per play. The Jets are last in yards per play gained.
  • Rams home games have had an average combined score of 34.33, which is the lowest in the NFL.
  • The Jets have a league-worst average point margin of -22 on the road.
  • The Rams are first overall in net yards per play. The Jets are dead last.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Rams' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 41.1)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jets' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 43.2)
  • The Jets are 0-13 SU in their last 13 games. (Avg losing margin: 16.15)
  • The Jets are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a double-digit favorite.
  • The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Jets' last five games vs the Rams. (Avg combined score: 42.8)
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
  • These teams rank 30th and 29th in opponent completion %.
  • Tampa Bay ranks first in yards allowed per rush attempt. Atlanta is 30th in yards per rush attempt.
  • Tampa’s average point margin on the road is +9.3, which is the second-highest in the NFL. The Bucs also rank second in the NFL in net yards per play on the road.
  • Tampa Bay is sixth in red-zone TD scoring %. Atlanta is 31st.
  • The Buccaneers are 7-2 SU in their last nine games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Buccaneers' last 13 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 57.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Buccaneers' last four games vs the Falcons. (Avg combined score: 59.0)
  • The Buccaneers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Buccaneers' last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Buccaneers are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Falcons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.
  • The Falcons are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games vs their division at home.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-6 SU in their last seven games vs the Falcons.
Detroit at Tennessee
  • These teams are tied for 30th in opponent red-zone TD conversion %.
  • The Titans are third in yards per play. The Lions are 29th in yards allowed per play.
  • The Lions are 5-17 SU in their last 22 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Lions' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 54.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Titans' last 13 games at home. (Avg combined score: 57.77)
  • The Titans are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Titans' last 16 games in the early afternoon.
Houston at Indianapolis
  • The Texans are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The Colts rank third in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Texans are 26th in yards per rush.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Texans' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 55.13)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Colts' last five games. (Avg combined score: 60.8)
  • The Colts are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games at home.
  • The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
  • The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The Colts are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Texans are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games on the road vs the Colts.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Texans' last 11 games on the road vs the Colts.
New England at Miami
  • The Dolphins are first in sack % over the last three games. The Patriots are last in sack % allowed in this span.
  • The Dolphins are first in opponent third-down conversion %. Over the last three games, the Patriots are 27th in third-down offense.
  • Over the last three games, the Patriots are 27th in yards per rush attempt. The Dolphins are fourth in yards per rush allowed.
  • Over the last three games, the Patriots are last in yards per play, but third in yards per play allowed.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Patriots' last five games. (Avg combined score: 39.2)
  • The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Patriots' last 11 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Patriots are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Dolphins are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Dolphins are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games as a favorite.
  • The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.
  • The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The visiting team is 3-13 SU and ATS in the last 16 games in this matchup.
Chicago at Minnesota
  • Vikings home games have had an average combined score of 60 points.
  • The Vikings are 26th in yards per play allowed over the last three games. The Bears are a surprising seventh in yards per play gained in this span.
  • The Vikings are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home after failing to cover in their most recent home game.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Vikings' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 57.5)
  • The Vikings are fifth in opponent third-down conversion %. The Bears are last in third-down offense.
  • These teams are fourth and fifth in opponent red-zone TD conversion %.
  • The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Bears' last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bears are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Vikings are 4-1 SU in their last five games as a favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Vikings' last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 17 of the Vikings' last 22 games vs their division at home.
  • The Vikings are 21-5 SU in their last 26 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The visiting team is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games in this matchup.
Seattle at Washington
  • These teams rank 25th and 26th in sack % allowed. Washington is fourth in sack % for the season while Seattle is fourth in sack % over the last three games.
  • Seattle's average point margin on the road is +1.2 compared with +8.9 at home.
  • Seattle is tied for first in yards per play allowed over the last three games. Washington is 30th in yards per play gained in this span.
  • Washington is first in yards allowed per play at home.
  • Washington home games have had an average combined score of 38.67.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Seahawks' last five games. (Avg combined score: 40.0)
  • The Seahawks are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games on the East Coast.
  • The Seahawks are 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the early afternoon.
  • Washington is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games at home.
  • Washington is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • Washington is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games at home after covering in its most recent home game.
  • Washington is 0-7 SU in its last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The visiting team is 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this matchup.
Philadelphia at Arizona
  • The Cardinals rank fifth in QB pressure % created. The Eagles have allowed the most sacks in the NFL.
  • These teams rank seventh and eighth in yards allowed per play.
  • The Eagles are second in yards per rush attempt. The Cardinals are 20th in yards per rush attempt allowed.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Cardinals' last four games at home. (Avg combined score: 66.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Eagles' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 41.29)
  • The Eagles are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games on the road.
  • The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win.
  • The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Cardinals are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.
  • The visiting team is 2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 games in this matchup.
Kansas City at New Orleans
  • KC has a league-best average point margin of +9.4 on the road.
  • These teams are fourth and fifth in third-down conversion %.
  • These teams rank second and third in opponent completion %.
  • The Chiefs are 9-0 SU in their last nine games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 10.67)
  • The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
  • The Chiefs are 9-0 SU in their last nine games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Saints are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Saints' last six games. (Avg combined score: 38.33)
  • The Saints are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games after a loss.
  • The Saints are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Chiefs' last four games vs the Saints. (Avg combined score: 49.0)
San Francisco at Dallas
  • Cowboys home games have had an average combined score of 64.17, which is the highest in the NFL.
  • The 49ers are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games on the road.
  • The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • The 49ers are 6-0 SU in their last six games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Cowboys' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 64.13)
  • The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the 49ers' last nine games vs the Cowboys. (Avg combined score: 53.33)
  • The favored team is 7-0 SU in the last seven games in this matchup.
Jacksonville at Baltimore
  • Baltimore ranks fourth in point margin at +6.9 while Jacksonville is 31st at -9.4.
  • Over the last three games, the Ravens are fifth in yards per play, while the Jaguars are 29th in yards per play allowed.
  • The Ravens are first in yards per rush attempt. The Jaguars are 26th in yards per rush attempt allowed.
  • Over the last three games, the Jaguars have allowed the second-lowest sack % while the Ravens rank last in sack %.
  • The Jaguars are 0-12 SU in their last 12 games. (Avg losing margin: 10.75)
  • The Ravens are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games at home after covering in their most recent home game.
  • The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs the Ravens.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Jaguars' last seven games vs the Ravens. (Avg combined score: 35.29)
  • The Jaguars are 1-6 SU in their last seven games on the road vs the Ravens.
Cleveland at NY Giants
  • The Giants average the fifth-fewest penalties per game. The Browns average the seventh-most.
  • The Browns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on the road.
  • The Browns are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games on the road after covering in their most recent road game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Browns' last nine games at night.
  • The Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Giants' last four games. (Avg combined score: 35.5)
  • The Giants are 4-12 SU and ATS in their last 16 games at home.
  • The Giants are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Giants are 0-6 SU in their last six games at night.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati MNF
  • The Steelers rank first in QB pressure % created. The Bengals have allowed the second-most sacks.
  • The Steelers have allowed the lowest sack % in the NFL. The Bengals rank 30th in sack %.
  • The Steelers are second in yards per play allowed. The Bengals rank 31st in yards per play gained.
  • Pittsburgh ranks second in point margin at +8.6. Cincinnati is 29th at -7.2.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 16 of the Steelers' last 20 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 40.35)
  • The Steelers are 9-2-1 SU in their last 12 games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Steelers' last 16 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Steelers' last eight games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bengals' last four games. (Avg combined score: 32.0)
  • The Bengals are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games. (Avg losing margin: 14.8)
  • The Bengals are 1-14 SU in their last 15 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Bengals' last 15 games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Steelers' last five games vs the Bengals. (Avg combined score: 36.0)
  • The Steelers are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games vs the Bengals. (Avg winning margin: 10.09)
  • The Steelers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games on the road vs the Bengals.

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