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Super Bowl 55 Betting Primer

Welcome to the home of the 2020 NFL Betting Primer – your source for the best NFL stats and trends that you (probably) can’t find anywhere else on the internet.

Each week, I’ll comb through just about everything there is to look at and provide a quick list of my favorite nuggets for every single game to help you with your handicapping. A fresh article will be posted each Thursday, so keep an eye on my Twitter feed where I’ll post as soon as it’s ready.

Aside from my favorite trends, I like to look at stats such as yards per play, third-down conversion rate, red-zone TD scoring percentage, time of possession, sacks/QB pressures and turnovers. If I see some outliers that provide one team or one side of the total with a big edge over the other, I’ll be sure to share.

Keep in mind for the first few weeks of the season that many trends and stats need to be taken with a grain of salt because they don’t always carry over to a new season. All stats become more relevant the deeper we get into a season as bigger sample sizes are more ideal for handicapping. 

How to use betting trends:

It’s pretty simple – make sure there’s some logic to back up the trend. If the trend dates back to the early 1990s, spanning many coaching staffs and hundreds of players coming and going, then it doesn’t carry much weight. Sure, it makes for an interesting historical stat, but it’s not something to base a bet on.

The same goes for absurd trends crossing multiple variables like a team’s record in retractable-roof stadiums vs non-divisional opponents in the late-afternoon time slot in November. That foolishness is nothing more than coincidence and you won’t find trends like that in this article. 

HOWEVER, some teams excel or follow a consistent pattern in certain situations and it’s important to consider these spots, especially for teams with long-standing head coaches and QBs and also in divisional matchups.

Betting trends should simply be used as a starting point for your handicap. Remember that oddsmakers always adjust. You should always have stats to support a trend if you’re betting on it to continue because every matchup needs to be looked at individually.

With that out of the way, LET’S GET RIGHT INTO THE ACTION!

Super Bowl 55 Stats and Trends:

Chiefs vs Buccaneers
  • The underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 Super Bowls, but the favorite has covered three of the last four.
  • Tom Brady is 8-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs as an underdog.
  • In the Week 12 regular-season matchup that the Chiefs won 27-24, Patrick Mahomes threw for a season-high 462 yards while Tyreek Hill had a career-high 269 yards on 13 receptions. KC threw 30 more times than it ran.
  • In the six full quarters that Patrick Mahomes has played in the playoffs, the Chiefs have a +30 point differential.
  • The Chiefs rank second in third-down conversion percentage. Tampa’s D is 19th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The Chiefs rank last in opponent red-zone TD conversion percentage. The Bucs are 11th in this category offensively.
  • These teams rank second and fifth in points per play and second and seventh in yards per play.
  • Kansas City went 5-0 in games decided by three points or less. Tampa went 0-3.
  • The Bucs rank first in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Chiefs are 24th.
  • The Bucs are 25th in opponent completion percentage. The Chiefs are fourth.
  • The Bucs had the fifth-fewest penalty yards on their home field. KC had the third-most penalty yards on the road.
  • Travis Kelce has topped 100 receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games. He had at least eight receptions in nine of those 10 games. The Bucs allowed the seventh-most receptions to TEs this season.
  • Leonard Fournette has rushed for 55 or more yards in each of the Bucs’ playoff games. He’s also been targeted 17 times in the passing game.
  • Chris Godwin has been targeted seven more times than Mike Evans in the playoffs.
  • Antonio Brown has scored a TD in four of his last five games.
  • Tom Brady is old while Patrick Mahomes is young. Did you realize that?
  • The Chiefs are 25-2 SU in their last 27 games.
  • The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Chiefs’ last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 59.4)
  • The Buccaneers are 7-0 SU in their last seven games. (Avg winning margin: 13.71)
  • The Buccaneers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-6 SU in their last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs the Buccaneers.

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