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Championship Round Stats and Trends Betting Primer

Exactly how important is home-field advantage and locking up that first overall seed in the NFL playoffs? If the past six seasons are any indication, it’s pretty damn important as the home team is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS in the championship round since 2013.

This trend, of course, went on pause last season with the road teams, the Patriots and Rams, winning their respective conference title games, but it’s not exactly a bold statement saying that it’s a pretty big advantage for the 49ers and Chiefs not needing to travel this week.

It’s also worth noting that this is the Titans’ fourth game in four weeks on the road. This is something that’s flying under the radar a bit.

The home team is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS in the championship round since 2013.

With each game featuring a spread of 7 points or more, bettors will be interested to know that the favorite in this instance has been an outright winner in 22 of 28 games since 1984 (14-14 ATS).

All that said, I’m sure sportsbooks will be inundated with Chiefs/49ers parlays and teasers this week. On paper, they look like good plays, but then again, the Saints looked pretty good on a teaser in the wild-card round, and so did the Ravens in the divisional round.

I’m personally staying away from teasers this weekend, but the evidence to support both favorites at least winning straight up is hard to ignore.

The conference round also has a reputation for uncompetitive games over the years, with 15 games since the 2000 playoffs being decided by 14 or more points, and a whopping 20 games decided by 10 or more. If the pattern continues, you’d have to assume – or at least I would – that it’s the favorites that would be doing the ass-kicking.

I guess all these trends and patterns make this round of the playoffs a square bettor’s delight, at least as far as parlays and teasers are concerned.

Good luck this weekend, and for more coverage on the championship round, including my best bets, check out the latest episode of Guys & Bets. Have fun and, as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Championship Round Stats and Trends:

Titans-Chiefs
  • The Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10 despite being outgained by 159 yards and losing the time of possession battle 37:52 to 22:08.
  • Patrick Mahomes threw for a season-high 446 yards vs the Titans this season, while Derrick Henry had a season-best 8.2 yards per carry on 23 carries in that game.
  • Tennessee allowed 530 yards vs the Ravens, but only allowed 12 points thanks to winning the turnover battle 3-0 and Baltimore going 0-for-4 on fourth down.
  • The Chiefs are 6-0 SU and ATS out of their bye with five of the wins coming by double digits.
  • The Titans are 5-0 SU in their last five games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 15.8)
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Titans' last 12 games. (Avg combined score: 51.33)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Chiefs' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 52.57)
  • The Titans are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games on the road after covering in their most recent road game.
  • The Chiefs are 7-0 SU in their last seven games. (Avg winning margin: 16.86)
  • The Chiefs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games at home in January.
  • The Chiefs are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games in the playoffs.
  • The Titans are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games vs the Chiefs.
  • The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road vs the Chiefs.
Packers-49ers
  • Despite forcing just one turnover, having 38 more penalty yards and losing the time of possession battle, the 49ers still obliterated the Packers 37-8 in their matchup earlier this season.
  • Aaron Rodgers threw for a season-low 104 yards in San Francisco this season. He was sacked five times.
  • The Packers are 29th in net yards per play on the road. The 49ers are second at home.
  • The Packers are 25th in third-down conversion percentage on the road. The 49ers are second in opponents third-down conversion percentage at home.
  • The Packers are 6-0 SU in their last six games. (Avg winning margin: 8.67)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Packers' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 40.4)
  • The Packers are 3-12-1 SU in their last 16 games as an underdog.
  • The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in January.
  • The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win.
  • The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the playoffs as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the 49ers' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 53.57)
  • The 49ers are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games as favorites.
  • The 49ers are 5-19-1 ATS in their last 25 games as home favorites.
  • The 49ers are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The Packers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs the 49ers.