The Kansas City Chiefs come out of the bye week off just their second loss of the season, but the perfect remedy for them is a Week 13 date with the 2-9 Oakland Raiders. Having covered the spread in seven of the last 10 matchups (8-2 SU), the Chiefs are a strong pick even as 14-point favorites, with the total Sportsbook at 56.5.
- Kansas City is 11-4 SU and ATS in its last 15 games at Oakland.
- The OVER has hit in seven of Kansas City’s last eight road games.
- Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
Hunt released by the Chiefs
On Friday, footage came out of Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt shoving and kicking a woman in an Ohio hotel room in February. The Chiefs were aware of the situation but hadn't seen the video, and it appears Hunt lied to the team about his involvement in the dispute.
Kansas City released Hunt Friday evening and the 23-year-old was promptly added to the Commissioner Exempt List, meaning he may not practice, play or attend games until activated. Starting in his place against Oakland is former backup back Spencer Ware. Sportsbooks adjusted the Chiefs from -15 to -14 in light of the news.
MY PICK FOR SUNDAY: CHIEFS -14
A 9-2 team, led by a first-year starting quarterback, on the road against a 2-9 cellar-dweller, with three high-leverage games the following three weeks? This has all the makings of a classic trap game, except for one (big) caveat: the Kansas City Chiefs simply cannot afford to lose this game.
Following their Week 11 loss in a historic Monday Night Football shootout to the Rams, Kansas City finds itself just one game ahead of New England for first place in the AFC, and also one game ahead of the Chargers for first place in their own division; they are going to be in a dogfight right through to the end of the season, so Chiefs veteran head coach Andy Reid will ensure they don’t overlook their Week 13 matchup.
For the Chiefs, the only thing that can stop them on Sunday is themselves: they possess so much more talent than their opponents that if they play as they have all season, they won’t be stopped. Sitting top three in the NFL in points and yards and leading the league in passing touchdowns, Kansas City should have no trouble going through an Oakland defense that allows the third-most points per game.
Oakland has yet to prove it can rise to the occasion this season as well — the Raiders are 0-6 against teams with a winning record, losing by an average of 17.5 points, and this is the first of two divisional matchups with Kansas City over the final five weeks of the season.
Kansas City is the league’s highest-scoring team on the road this season and is facing one of the league’s worst defenses. Kansas City is just too good and has too much on the line to let this result be anything other than expected. Look for the Chiefs to not only win, but emphatically take care of business as they move on to the home stretch of the season. Don’t get cute – put your money on KC.
OAKLAND NEEDS TO GO VERTICAL
It’s a scary, unfortunate reality: when you play the Kansas City Chiefs, you’re going to need to score points. While that is a daunting task for Oakland’s 30th-ranked offense, it will be even more of a challenge if Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has a repeat performance from Week 12.
Not only did Carr complete just 16 of his 34 attempts against Baltimore, but only two of them went for longer than eight yards. That inability to gain large chunks of yards downfield is not an option against Kansas City — they need to move the ball with authority.
Look for Oakland to open up the playbook a little more this week, if not to keep pace with Kansas City but to keep within respectability. Bettors, as is the norm with Chiefs games, would be wise to look at the OVER for this contest.
