NFL

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots

Kansas City
Chiefs
5 - 0
New England
Patriots
3 - 2
October 14, 2018, 8:20 PM EDT
 | Gillette Stadium

Game Preview

Kansas City
Chiefs
5 - 0
New England
Patriots
3 - 2
October 14, 2018, 8:20 PM EDT
 | Gillette Stadium
  • If you’re a fan of high-quality football, Week 6’s Sunday Night Football game between the Chiefs and Patriots will be a game for you. If you’re a fan of non-quality football, I’d advise partaking in an Oakland Raiders game or waiting for the latest incarnation of the XFL to start.

    Anyways, Kansas City remains perfect on the season, but something will need to give vs the Patriots, who are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. This is undoubtedly the game of the year so far. It features the highest total of the season at 59 and the Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite.

    Shark Bites
    • The Patriots are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a TNF game.
    • Kansas City games have finished with an average combined score of 60.8 so far this season.
    • The Patriots are 23-7-3 ATS in their last 33 home games.

    Chiefs vs Patriots Game Center

    Extra Rest for Patriots = Extra Money for Bettors

    Coming off a Thursday Night Football game has been a big money spot for New England backers as the Patriots are on a run that’s seen them go 10-3-1 ATS in the game after playing in a Thursday nighter. It’s not a shock that a team like the Pats has performed extraordinarily well in this spot considering the extra time gives them more time to prepare, rest and heal. The extra rest is coming at a perfect time, especially for their defense, as they face a Chiefs offense that ranks second in the NFL with 35 points per game.

    New England also has the luxury of playing in its third straight home game, a spot that’s also benefited Patriots backers in recent years as they’ve gone 11-2 SU in their last 13 games in this situation. This has been a profitable spot across the entire NFL the past few seasons, as teams playing in their third consecutive home game have gone 31-16-2 ATS over the past three seasons.

    Home sweet home for Brady and the Boys

    The Patriots’ two early-season losses might be enough reason for some bettors to fade them in this game, especially when a fair argument can be made that Kansas City is flat-out a better team. However, those two losses occurred on the road, and New England has still resembled a Super Bowl contender at home, going 3-0 SU and ATS with an average win margin of 17.6.

    It’s also hard to ignore the Pats’ long history of obliterating the visiting team. More recently, they’re on a 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS stretch where they’ve won by an average of 16 points. Going back even further, they’re 23-7-3 ATS in their last 33 home games, good enough for a ridiculous covering percentage of 76.6 percent.

    Kansas City could be the kryptonite to knock New England off its throne in the AFC, however, as the Chiefs haven’t missed a beat on the road, going 3-0 SU and ATS. And, of course, I won’t be the first or last person to remind you that they came into New England in Week 1 last season and humiliated the Patriots, beating them 42-27.

    Should you be all over the over?

    Sportsbook the week at 59 points, this will be the highest total to date for the 2018 season if it stays intact — the previous high was 57 between the Falcons and Steelers last week. It certainly is a lot of points, but is it too many? Probably not.

    Kansas City games have finished with an average combined score of 60.8 and New England is coming off a win vs the Colts that saw the teams combine for 62 points. The Patriots have allowed at least 20 points in four of their five games while Kansas City is allowing its opponents to score 25.8 points per game.

    Most notably for the Chiefs defense, they rank 30th in yards allowed per play at 6.5, so there’s no reason why the Patriots offense shouldn’t be able to have their way with them. New England appears to be hitting its stride, scoring 38 points in consecutive weeks. The offense looks like it’s finally coming together with Gronk getting healthier, Josh Gordon becoming better acclimated to the offense and Sony Michel maturing into a serious playmaker out of the backfield.

    Combining all this with Kansas City’s high-flying, quick-scoring offense and the fact that each team ranks in the top six in red-zone touchdown scoring percentage definitely makes me lean in the direction of the OVER.

    My best bet for Chiefs vs Patriots

    I’m going with the Patriots to halt Kansas City’s perfect season and cover the spread.

    I’m taking the Patriots to cover the spread.

    Their dominance at home is something I can’t ignore. Although their defense is average at best, the Chiefs’ is one of the worst in the league. Lots of points will be scored and I expect Patrick Mahomes and company to be playing catch-up for the majority of the game, but the big difference will be New England’s ability to get an extra stop or two which will be enough to cover the number.

    Other need-to-know numbers for Sunday Night

    Seriously, I could have added another 1,000 words to this betting preview with many more sexy numbers. That tends to be the case for any Patriots game. Instead, here’s some extra bullets to keep in mind for Chiefs vs Patriots:

    • The favorite is 1-7-1 ATS in the last nine SNF games.
    • Six of the seven head-to-head games between Bill Belichick and Andy Reid have gone OVER. Belichick is 5-2 SU in those games.
    • The total has gone OVER in the Chiefs’ last three games vs the Patriots (avg. combined score: 57.0).
    • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Chiefs’ last 14 games at night.
    • The Patriots are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at night.
    • The Patriots are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 SNF games.
    • The Chiefs are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
    • In three road games this season, Patrick Mahomes has thrown 11 TDs and 0 INTs with a 130.7 QB rating.
    • Kansas City is allowing the second-most passing yards per game at 343.

Odds

Sunday, October 14 Sun Oct 14


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
+3.5
-110
+134
o58
-110
-3.5
-110
-159
u58
-110
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
+4
-107
+185
o59
-113
-4
-113
-215
u59
-107

Edge Finder

29.20
Points Scored
21.41
288.85
Passing Yards
207.94
115.70
Rushing Yards
106.65
30:21
Time on Field
29:10
64.00
Number of Plays
59.18
6.32
Yards Per Play
5.32
29.20
Points Scored
21.41
5.50
First Quarter
2.71
9.95
Second Quarter
6.24
6.35
Third Quarter
6.82
6.95
Fourth Quarter
5.65
288.85
Passing Yards
207.94
37.90
Pass Attempts
31.76
25.60
Pass Completions
21.06
1.45
Sacks
2.41
9.95
Sack Yards
16.41
11.28
Yards Per Pass
9.87
115.70
Rushing Yards
106.65
24.65
Rush Attempts
25.00
4.69
Yards Per Rush
4.27
0.60
Interceptions
0.82
1.20
Fumbles
1.35
0.60
Fumbles Lost
0.53
1.20
Total Turnovers
1.35
4.85
Penalties
6.12
46.85
Penalty Yards
49.47
30:21
Time on Field
29:10
64.00
Number of Plays
59.18
6.32
Yards Per Play
5.32
3.15
Punts
4.71
49.60
Punt Average
41.74
68.45
Return Yards
97.53

Head To Head

KC
Stat Type NE
4-6
Record
6-4
5-5
ATS
5-5
5-5
O/U
5-5
23.90
Points Scored
24.70
135.90
Rush Yds
95.60
34.40
Pass Attempts
37.80
65.41
Completion %
61.64
255.00
Passing Yds
271.80
390.9
Total Yds
367.4
1.60
Turnovers
1.70
KC
Stat Type NE
2-1
Record
1-2
2-1
ATS
1-2
3-0
O/U
3-0
34.33
Points Scored
22.67
175.67
Rush Yds
79.00
37.00
Pass Attempts
36.00
69.37
Completion %
59.26
277.00
Passing Yds
254.67
452.67
Total Yds
333.67
0.67
Turnovers
1.00
Sep 7/17 (1 of 10)
KC
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
42
Points Scored
27
+8
ATS
-8
47.5 o
O/U
47.5 u
185
Rush Yds
124
35
Pass Attempts
36
80.00
Completion %
44.44
352
Passing Yds
247
537
Total Yds
371
1
Turnovers
0
Jan 16/16 (2 of 10)
KC
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
20
Points Scored
27
+6
ATS
-6
44.5 o
O/U
44.5 u
135
Rush Yds
38
50
Pass Attempts
42
58.00
Completion %
66.67
243
Passing Yds
302
378
Total Yds
340
1
Turnovers
0
Sep 29/14 (3 of 10)
KC
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
41
Points Scored
14
+2.5
ATS
-2.5
45.5 o
O/U
45.5 u
207
Rush Yds
75
26
Pass Attempts
30
76.92
Completion %
66.67
236
Passing Yds
215
443
Total Yds
290
0
Turnovers
3
Nov 21/11 (4 of 10)
KC
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
3
Points Scored
34
+17
ATS
-17
46.5 o
O/U
46.5 u
125
Rush Yds
157
37
Pass Attempts
27
64.86
Completion %
55.56
209
Passing Yds
223
334
Total Yds
380
3
Turnovers
1
Sep 7/08 (5 of 10)
KC
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
10
Points Scored
17
+16
ATS
-16
43 o
O/U
43 u
102
Rush Yds
126
31
Pass Attempts
29
61.29
Completion %
68.97
182
Passing Yds
212
284
Total Yds
338
1
Turnovers
2
Nov 27/05 (6 of 10)
KC
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
26
Points Scored
16
-3.5
ATS
+3.5
49 o
O/U
49 u
112
Rush Yds
74
26
Pass Attempts
40
73.08
Completion %
55.00
308
Passing Yds
232
420
Total Yds
306
1
Turnovers
4
Nov 22/04 (7 of 10)
KC
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
19
Points Scored
27
+3
ATS
-3
53 o
O/U
53 u
64
Rush Yds
98
42
Pass Attempts
26
64.29
Completion %
65.38
353
Passing Yds
309
417
Total Yds
407
1
Turnovers
1
Sep 22/02 (8 of 10)
KC
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
38
Points Scored
41
+9
ATS
-9
43.5 o
O/U
43.5 u
221
Rush Yds
97
25
Pass Attempts
55
64.00
Completion %
70.91
128
Passing Yds
399
349
Total Yds
496
3
Turnovers
1
Dec 4/00 (9 of 10)
KC
Stat Type NE
Away
Home
24
Points Scored
30
-0
ATS
0
40 o
O/U
40 u
68
Rush Yds
105
46
Pass Attempts
48
54.35
Completion %
68.75
350
Passing Yds
263
418
Total Yds
368
3
Turnovers
1
Oct 10/99 (10 of 10)
KC
Stat Type NE
Home
Away
16
Points Scored
14
-2.5
ATS
+2.5
43 o
O/U
43 u
140
Rush Yds
62
26
Pass Attempts
45
69.23
Completion %
51.11
189
Passing Yds
316
329
Total Yds
378
2
Turnovers
4

Team Records

KC
Record NE
5-0
All
3-2
2-0
Home
3-0
3-0
Away
0-2
5-0
ATS
3-2
2-0
ATS Home
3-0
3-0
ATS Away
0-2
3-2
O/U
2-3
1-1
O/U Home
1-2
2-1
O/U Away
1-1
KC
Record NE
4-0
All
3-1
1-0
Home
3-0
3-0
Away
0-1
4-0
ATS
3-1
1-0
ATS Home
3-0
3-0
ATS Away
0-1
2-2
O/U
2-2
0-1
O/U Home
1-2
2-1
O/U Away
1-0
KC
Record NE
2-0
All
1-0
0-0
Home
1-0
2-0
Away
0-0
2-0
ATS
1-0
0-0
ATS Home
1-0
2-0
ATS Away
0-0
0-0
O/U
0-0
0-0
O/U Home
0-0
0-0
O/U Away
0-0
KC
Record NE
5-0
All
3-2
2-0
Home
3-0
3-0
Away
0-2
5-0
ATS
3-2
2-0
ATS Home
3-0
3-0
ATS Away
0-2
3-2
O/U
2-3
1-1
O/U Home
1-2
2-1
O/U Away
1-1

Gametime Weather

Weather
8:00 pm EDT Clear
9ºC / 49ºF
71% Humidity
3% Precipitation
29% Cloud Cover
Wind Impact Stadium Type Open
Field Image
Arrow Image 2
mph

Injuries

Name Position Inj Desc
No Injuries to Report
Name Position Inj Desc
No Injuries to Report

Last 10 Games

Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Oct 7, 2018JAC30-14W-3/48W/U126298424101401502-3
Oct 1, 2018DEN27-23W-3.5/53.5W/U142304446159226385-1
Sep 23, 2018SF38-27W-6/53.5W/O773073841782284060
Sep 16, 2018PIT42-37W+4/52.5W/O127322449334424751
Sep 9, 2018LAC38-28W+3/48.5W/O106256362123418541-2
Jan 6, 2018TEN21-22L-8.5/44.5L/U69256325202195397-2
Dec 31, 2017DEN27-24W+3/37.5W/O110269379110226336-1
Dec 24, 2017MIA29-13W-11/43.5W/U10330140459286345-2
Dec 16, 2017LAC30-13W-1/47W/U17422339798209307-4
Dec 10, 2017OAK26-15W-4.5/48.5W/U16524340870198268-2
View Game Logs
Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Oct 4, 2018IND38-24W-10.5/50W/O9734143884355439-1
Sep 30, 2018MIA38-7W-6.5/50.5W/U175274449561161720
Sep 23, 2018DET10-26L-7/55L/U891202091592554140
Sep 16, 2018JAC20-31L-2/44.5L/O82220302104377481-1
Sep 9, 2018HOU27-20W-6.5/49.5W/U1222673891671583251
Feb 4, 2018PHI33-41L-4.5/49L/O1135006131643745380
Jan 21, 2018JAC24-20W-8/45.5L/U462983441012733741
Jan 13, 2018TEN35-14W-13.5/48W/O101337438652022670
Dec 31, 2017NYJ26-6W-16.5/42.5W/U147183330402072470
Dec 24, 2017BUF37-16W-10.5/47.5W/O193218411842423261
View Game Logs
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