NFL

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks

Kansas City
Chiefs
11 - 3
Seattle
Seahawks
8 - 6
December 23, 2018, 8:20 PM EST
 | Lumen Field

Game Preview

Kansas City
Chiefs
11 - 3
Seattle
Seahawks
8 - 6
December 23, 2018, 8:20 PM EST
 | Lumen Field
  • The word “desperate” isn’t usually used to describe an 11-3 team at this point of the season, but thanks to being upset at home by the Chargers in Week 15, the Chiefs are in serious danger of losing their grasp on a first-round playoff bye, which would have been unimaginable a few weeks ago.

    Despite the letdown, they’ll come into Seattle as a -2.5 favorite vs a Seahawks team that’s on an unreal run in night games, posting a 24-6-4 ATS record. Lots of points are expected as the game has one of the larger totals of the week at 53.5.

    Shark Bites
    • Seattle is 18-5 ATS as a home underdog since December 2008.
    • Kansas City has the best first-half spread record in the NFL — 11-3 ATS.
    • Seattle is 24-6-4 ATS in its last 34 night games.

    Chiefs vs Seahawks Game Center

    Spread Analysis

    Fading the Seahawks as a home dog in recent years has been a horrendous investment strategy as they’ve covered eight consecutive spreads in that spot and, going back to December 2008, they’ve posted an 18-5 ATS record when getting points at home. They covered in their lone game as a home dog this season vs the Rams and as an underdog overall in 2018 they’re an impressive 4-1-1 ATS.

    Inconveniently for us bettors, recent trends also favor the Chiefs in this spot as they’ve been fantastic on the road, going 4-1-1 ATS this season and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.

    Given Seattle’s reputation for having one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, I think this is a fair spread. However, I think Kansas City would be closer to -3.5 had it not been for the loss to the Chargers last week, which was a bit of a fluke. According to ESPN Stats & Info, teams were 0-88 SU this season when trailing by 14 or more points in the final five minutes of a game. It sucked being on the wrong end of that one.

    How to Bet the Total

    In recent weeks, we’ve seen some of the league’s top offenses — the Saints, Rams and Patriots — put up some low point totals, but the Chiefs, who lead the league with 35.6 points per game, haven’t scored fewer than 26 points in a game yet.

    With the total on the high side at 53.5, I’d still lean toward the OVER. Chiefs road games this season have averaged 73.43 points, while Seattle has proven to have a bit of firepower of its own by either reaching or exceeding 30 points on four occasions this season. As always with totals betting, keep your eye on the weather, but if it’s dry with clear skies, I can see both teams putting up lots of points.

    Cause for Concern or False Alarm in KC?

    After a 9-1 start, the Chiefs are 2-2 in their last four games with their two wins in that span coming over the Raiders and Ravens by a combined 10 points. Clearly, they’re no longer lighting the world on fire, but are they still elite? Yes, they’re still elite and one of the top Super Bowl contenders in the NFL. Their three losses this season have come by a grand total of seven points, against three pretty good teams, so pump the brakes if you want to argue that they’re in decline.

    There is, however, a significant red flag that was on full display in their loss to the Chargers. That issue is that their play declines as games go on. Here’s their point differential by quarter:

    • Q1: +5.79
    • Q2: +1.07
    • Q3: +2.29
    • Q4: -0.86

    Coming out on fire and taking their foot off the gas late in the game is what has gotten them into trouble in their three losses. The main culprit for the second-half drop-off is undoubtedly their defense that’s allowing an average of 15 points in the second half, which is bad enough for fourth-worst in the NFL. Specific to road games, they’re allowing 17.7 second-half points.

    The Biggest Prime-Time Player in the Game

    If you follow our NFL betting coverage here at OddsShark, you know that whenever the Seahawks play at night, we go out of our way to gush over how great they’ve been in prime time. This is a practice that I’ll continue.

    Here’s a breakdown of Seattle in night games in a few specific situations:

    • Night games at home: 15-3-3 ATS
    • Night games as an underdog: 10-2 ATS
    • Night games as a home underdog: 5-1 ATS
    • Night games after a loss in their most recent game: 8-2-3 ATS
    • Night games in December: 9-0 ATS
    • Night games vs teams with winning records: 11-3 ATS

    In my bold opinion, the Seattle Seahawks are good in night games.

    My Best Bet 

    I’m on the Chiefs -0.5 first-half spread.

    I’ve had a fair amount of success with first-half bets this season. With so many conflicting trends and KC’s inability to finish as well as it starts, I think this is the way to go, especially when you consider how bad Seattle has looked the past two weeks in a sluggish home win vs the Vikings and a disappointing upset loss vs the 49ers.

    Kansas City is actually the best first-half bet in the NFL at 11-3 ATS. The Chiefs have the second-best first-half point differential at +6.86 while Seattle is further down the list at +1.79. There’s no way to quantify this, but I think the shocking loss to the Chargers may have been a wake-up call for the Chiefs and they’ll come out on fire Sunday night.

Odds

Sunday, December 23 Sun Dec 23


Opening
Current

Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Opening
-1
-110
-147
o53.5
-110
+1
-110
+125
u53.5
-110
Spread
Moneyline
O/U
Current
-1
-110
-118
o54.5
-110
+1
-110
-102
u54.5
-110

Edge Finder

29.20
Points Scored
23.89
288.85
Passing Yards
231.17
115.70
Rushing Yards
119.28
30:21
Time on Field
28:55
64.00
Number of Plays
61.50
6.32
Yards Per Play
5.70
29.20
Points Scored
23.89
5.50
First Quarter
5.39
9.95
Second Quarter
7.22
6.35
Third Quarter
3.83
6.95
Fourth Quarter
7.28
288.85
Passing Yards
231.17
37.90
Pass Attempts
33.78
25.60
Pass Completions
23.56
1.45
Sacks
2.72
9.95
Sack Yards
20.78
11.28
Yards Per Pass
9.81
115.70
Rushing Yards
119.28
24.65
Rush Attempts
25.00
4.69
Yards Per Rush
4.77
0.60
Interceptions
0.72
1.20
Fumbles
1.11
0.60
Fumbles Lost
0.67
1.20
Total Turnovers
1.39
4.85
Penalties
6.17
46.85
Penalty Yards
49.11
30:21
Time on Field
28:55
64.00
Number of Plays
61.50
6.32
Yards Per Play
5.70
3.15
Punts
3.89
49.60
Punt Average
48.51
68.45
Return Yards
64.67

Head To Head

KC
Stat Type SEA
6-4
Record
4-6
7-3
ATS
3-7
7-3
O/U
7-3
25.10
Points Scored
22.90
154.20
Rush Yds
119.50
31.90
Pass Attempts
33.30
61.76
Completion %
57.96
251.40
Passing Yds
210.80
405.6
Total Yds
330.3
1.60
Turnovers
1.50
KC
Stat Type SEA
3-0
Record
0-3
3-0
ATS
0-3
3-0
O/U
3-0
33.67
Points Scored
24.00
217.00
Rush Yds
91.33
24.33
Pass Attempts
33.00
68.49
Completion %
55.56
216.33
Passing Yds
208.67
433.33
Total Yds
300
2.00
Turnovers
1.67
Nov 16/14 (1 of 10)
KC
Stat Type SEA
Home
Away
24
Points Scored
20
-1
ATS
+1
43.5 o
O/U
43.5 u
190
Rush Yds
204
16
Pass Attempts
32
68.75
Completion %
62.50
108
Passing Yds
168
298
Total Yds
372
2
Turnovers
0
Nov 28/10 (2 of 10)
KC
Stat Type SEA
Away
Home
42
Points Scored
24
-2
ATS
+2
45.5 o
O/U
45.5 u
270
Rush Yds
20
32
Pass Attempts
37
68.75
Completion %
54.05
233
Passing Yds
268
503
Total Yds
288
1
Turnovers
3
Oct 29/06 (3 of 10)
KC
Stat Type SEA
Home
Away
35
Points Scored
28
-5
ATS
+5
37 o
O/U
37 u
191
Rush Yds
50
25
Pass Attempts
30
68.00
Completion %
50.00
308
Passing Yds
190
499
Total Yds
240
3
Turnovers
2
Nov 24/02 (4 of 10)
KC
Stat Type SEA
Away
Home
32
Points Scored
39
-3
ATS
+3
44 o
O/U
44 u
217
Rush Yds
180
34
Pass Attempts
36
76.47
Completion %
69.44
335
Passing Yds
354
552
Total Yds
534
1
Turnovers
0
Jan 6/02 (5 of 10)
KC
Stat Type SEA
Away
Home
18
Points Scored
21
+4
ATS
-4
39.5 o
O/U
39.5 u
126
Rush Yds
150
33
Pass Attempts
39
45.45
Completion %
56.41
182
Passing Yds
239
308
Total Yds
389
1
Turnovers
2
Nov 25/01 (6 of 10)
KC
Stat Type SEA
Home
Away
19
Points Scored
7
-2
ATS
+2
40.5 o
O/U
40.5 u
188
Rush Yds
65
26
Pass Attempts
26
61.54
Completion %
61.54
245
Passing Yds
139
433
Total Yds
204
0
Turnovers
0
Oct 29/00 (7 of 10)
KC
Stat Type SEA
Away
Home
24
Points Scored
19
-3.5
ATS
+3.5
41.5 o
O/U
41.5 u
76
Rush Yds
143
35
Pass Attempts
42
62.86
Completion %
61.90
334
Passing Yds
208
410
Total Yds
351
3
Turnovers
4
Oct 2/00 (8 of 10)
KC
Stat Type SEA
Home
Away
24
Points Scored
17
-4.5
ATS
+4.5
40 o
O/U
40 u
136
Rush Yds
189
27
Pass Attempts
28
59.26
Completion %
60.71
242
Passing Yds
100
378
Total Yds
289
0
Turnovers
2
Dec 26/99 (9 of 10)
KC
Stat Type SEA
Away
Home
14
Points Scored
23
+3
ATS
-3
42.5 o
O/U
42.5 u
72
Rush Yds
60
42
Pass Attempts
30
52.38
Completion %
60.00
230
Passing Yds
207
302
Total Yds
267
3
Turnovers
0
Nov 21/99 (10 of 10)
KC
Stat Type SEA
Home
Away
19
Points Scored
31
-3
ATS
+3
37.5 o
O/U
37.5 u
76
Rush Yds
134
49
Pass Attempts
33
61.22
Completion %
42.42
297
Passing Yds
235
373
Total Yds
369
2
Turnovers
2

Team Records

KC
Record SEA
11-3
All
8-6
6-1
Home
4-2
5-2
Away
4-4
8-5-1
ATS
8-4-2
3-4
ATS Home
4-1-1
5-1-1
ATS Away
4-3-1
9-5
O/U
7-7
3-4
O/U Home
3-3
6-1
O/U Away
4-4
KC
Record SEA
9-2
All
7-4
4-1
Home
4-1
5-1
Away
3-3
7-4
ATS
7-3-1
2-3
ATS Home
4-0-1
5-1
ATS Away
3-3
7-4
O/U
6-5
2-3
O/U Home
3-2
5-1
O/U Away
3-3
KC
Record SEA
4-1
All
2-3
1-1
Home
1-1
3-0
Away
1-2
2-3
ATS
3-2
0-2
ATS Home
2-0
2-1
ATS Away
1-2
0-0
O/U
0-0
0-0
O/U Home
0-0
0-0
O/U Away
0-0
KC
Record SEA
7-3
All
6-4
5-1
Home
3-2
2-2
Away
3-2
4-5-1
ATS
7-2-1
2-4
ATS Home
3-1-1
2-1-1
ATS Away
4-1
6-4
O/U
6-4
2-4
O/U Home
3-2
4-0
O/U Away
3-2

Gametime Weather

Weather
5:00 pm EST Overcast
7ºC / 45ºF
82% Humidity
24% Precipitation
82% Cloud Cover
Wind Impact Stadium Type Open
Field Image
Arrow Image 6
mph

Injuries

Name Position Inj Desc
No Injuries to Report
Name Position Inj Desc
No Injuries to Report

Last 10 Games

Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Dec 13, 2018LAC28-29L-3.5/54.5L/O60234294119288407-2
Dec 9, 2018BAL27-24W-6.5/48.5L/O943474411981233210
Dec 2, 2018OAK40-33W-14/53.5L/O174295469171271442-2
Nov 19, 2018LAR51-54L+3/63.5P/O98448546763794553
Nov 11, 2018ARI26-14W-16/49.5L/U11821233094166260-2
Nov 4, 2018CLE37-21W-8/51.5W/O1393604991022863880
Oct 28, 2018DEN30-23W-9/53.5L/U49291340189222411-1
Oct 21, 2018CIN45-10W-6.5/56.5W/U198353551651742390
Oct 14, 2018NE40-43L+3.5/59.5W/O943524461733275001
Oct 7, 2018JAC30-14W-3/48W/U126298424101401502-3
View Game Logs
Date Opp Score SU Line/Total ATS OFF. RUSH OFF. PASS OFF. TOTAL DEF. RUSH DEF. PASS DEF. TOTAL TO
Dec 16, 2018SF23-26L-4/44L/O16821738594257351-1
Dec 10, 2018MIN21-7W-3/45.5W/U21460274771992760
Dec 2, 2018SF43-16W-10/45W/O16816333166386452-3
Nov 25, 2018CAR30-27W+3/46.5W/O75322397220256476-1
Nov 15, 2018GB27-24W-3/49.5P/O173205378483113591
Nov 11, 2018LAR31-36L+9.5/51W/O2731414141493074561
Nov 4, 2018LAC17-25L-1/48.5L/U1542023561602153751
Oct 28, 2018DET28-14W+3/48W/U17623741334297331-3
Oct 14, 2018OAK27-3W-3/48W/U15521436979106185-1
Oct 7, 2018LAR31-33L+7.5/50.5W/O190183373155313468-2
View Game Logs
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