Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers

One of the most mind-boggling stats from Week 9 was that not only did the Dolphins win and cover against the Jets, but they accomplished both with only 13 points and 168 yards of total offense. The 13-6 win was only Miami’s second ATS cover in its past six games as the Fins improved to 5-4 overall and against the spread.

It’s hard to play the “what-if” game when it comes to the spread, but with the Packers and Patriots tied at 17 to start the fourth quarter and Green Bay driving, it appeared as if the Pack were going to be in prime position to cover +5. A field goal makes it 20-17, a touchdown 24-17, and New England -5 backers would have endured a painful sweat. Instead, Aaron Jones coughed up the ball inside the Patriots’ 30-yard line and Tom Brady shredded the Packers secondary on the next two drives to win 31-17 and drop Green Bay to 3-4-1 overall and 3-5 against the spread. Woof!

Green Bay opened as the 7.5-point home favorite with Miami’s moneyline +310 and the point total 51.5.

Dolphins vs Packers Game Center

WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 9

Packers – Keep an eye on Green Bay’s injury report throughout the week as the Pack lost several players Sunday night. Oft-injured right tackle Bryan Bulaga injured his knee, cornerback Kevin King (hamstring) and safety Kentrell Brice (knee) left the game, and linebacker Blake Martinez was carted off with an ankle injury, but miraculously returned later in the game. Remember, the team also traded Ha Ha Clinton-Dix last week. So, its defensive depth is being tested.

Dolphins – The injury-riddled Dolphins defense held the Jets to six points after allowing the Lions and Texans to average 37 points the previous two weeks. However, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize Miami’s pass rush against New York’s horrific offensive line hurried Sam Darnold in the pocket, which led to his four interceptions and gift-wrapped a short field for Brock Osweiler. Without the pocket pressure and forced turnovers, Miami definitely doesn’t cover and you’re looking at a field goal fest. Osweiler hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the past 8½ quarters of football.

After head coach Adam Gase classified his first-string quarterback’s health as “weird,” Ryan Tannehill is probably weeks away from returning from a shoulder injury.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: YOUR OFFENSE IS OFFENSIVE

As we touched on in the intro, the Dolphins won and covered despite just 168 yards of total offense. Since 2013, teams that produced 168 or fewer yards of offense in a game are 5-38 straight up and 6-37 against the spread.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: HOME SWEET HOME

Over the past 10 occurrences, the Packers are 6-4 straight up and against the spread at home after playing back-to-back road games.

GREEN BAY, WI FORECAST

Cloudy to partly cloudy with temperatures near freezing, 32 degrees. However, with the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, temps are likely to dip into the 20s during the game. Calm winds and little chance of precipitation is expected.

Miami’s Jason Sanders is 11-for-12 on field goals and 20-for-21 on extra points this season. Since missing five kicks at Detroit, Mason Crosby is 7-for-7 on field goals and 8-for-8 on extra points.

MY LEAN

The freezing temperatures are going to benefit Green Bay and punish a Miami squad accustomed to hot and humid conditions.

After back-to-back road losses to elite NFL teams, the 3-4-1 Packers can either roll over and die or they can do what the Atlanta Falcons did in Week 9 at Washington and send a message by destroying their Week 10 opponent. This is the likely outcome against an uninspired Dolphins offense stuck in a quagmire with few sparks coming via the run or pass. Green Bay is 8-2 straight up in its past 10 home games when favored by 7.5 or more points and has covered two of the past three. Miami is 2-8 against the spread over its past 10 games when road dogs of 7.5 or more points, which includes four consecutive failed covers.

Packers cover 7.5.