In one of the more unappealing Thursday Night Football matchups of the season, the AFC South-leading Houston Texans will look to win their fifth game in a row when they host the Miami Dolphins. The Texans’ stomping of the Jaguars in Week 7 has placed them at the top of the division with a 4-3 SU record while the Dolphins couldn’t hold off the Lions at home and dropped to 4-3 SU and ATS.
Despite failing to cover in five straight home games, the Texans opened as 7-point home favorites with a total of 45.5.
SHARK BITES
The Texans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games as favorites of 7 points or more.
Miami ranks 25th in passing yards per game at 222.
The UNDER has hit in 5 of the Texans’ 7 games this season.
While the Texans offense has had its ups and downs this season, the defense has been balling out. Houston is holding teams to 20.6 points per game (ranked eighth) while their run defense is limiting opponents to an average of 92.1 yards per game (also ranked eighth) and has allowed only one touchdown on the ground. The pass defense is a bit of a different story as the Texans are tied at 25th for most passing touchdowns allowed (14) and are giving up 238 yards per game through the air.
Although the Jaguars look like a shell of themselves compared to the squad that went to the AFC championship game, the Texans deserve mad props for going into Jacksonville and wiping the floor with them. Deshaun Watson didn’t really factor into the win but his threat to run along with running back Lamar Miller (22 carries, 100 yards, one TD) kept the Jags defense on its heels.
The main reason why I’m not all-in on the Texans spread in this game is that they’ve repeatedly fallen short when in a position to cover. In their last 10 games as faves of 7 points or more, they’re 6-4 SU and 3-7 ATS, and when they’re favored by a touchdown at home, their spread record drops to 2-8 ATS. The Texans will likely win this game but I can’t endorse them on the spread, especially since they’re 2-5 ATS in seven games this season.
When Dolphins Lose, They Lose HARD
I’ll start this part of the article by saying this: If Brock Osweiler is your starting quarterback, just give up now. The seventh-year signal-caller owns a career 8-14 SU road record as a starting quarterback in 22 games and now may not have anyone to throw to as both WRs Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills have been ruled out with injuries. Receiver Devante Parker has only played sparingly in two games this season but is expected to suit up for this tilt.
The Dolphins defense has been getting hammered by the opposition lately as it’s allowed 31.2 points per game over the last four games with a point differential of -49. Sheesh! So, it shouldn’t surprise bettors that they went 1-3 SU and ATS in those games.
Sticking with that side of the ball, the Fins defense is allowing 269 yards per game through the air (ranked 23rd) and has given up an average of 136.7 yards per game on the ground (ranked 29th). When I see stats like that from a beaten-up defense, the more I’m convinced in fading Miami on the spread.
Here are some recent trends that paint a daunting picture for the Dolphins spread:
2-8 ATS in last 10 road games as dogs of 7 points or more
4-6 ATS when dogs of 7 points or more in any location
1-7 ATS in the last eight games on the road
6-10-2 ATS in last 18 games
3-5 ATS all-time vs the Texans
Needless to say, taking a spread on either side is a scary proposition.
Is an UNDER on Tap at NRG Stadium?
The total opened at 45.5 and while the OVER is a hot bet for Thursday Night Football (O/U record 5-2, average combined score: 51.4 points per game), I’m leaning to the UNDER. The UNDER has hit in five of the Texans’ seven games this season with an average combined score of 42.7 points per game. Exclude the 71-point outburst vs the Colts in Week 4 and that figure drops to 38 points per game. Couple this with the fact that the UNDER has hit in each of the Dolphins’ three road games this season and I expect a sloppy game in Houston.
My Pick is…
To take the UNDER. The Dolphins offense looks like a mess right now and will be missing some key players at receiver. The Texans offense hasn’t been very impressive either and will likely run the ball a lot with Lamar Miller. Unless there are crazy turnovers like last week in Arizona, expect this game to fall short of the total.
