If the Minnesota Vikings plan to have a dream finish at home in the Super Bowl, they’ll have to go through the rejuvenated New Orleans Saints. In what’s shaping up to be the game of the weekend, the Vikings will put their 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS home record on the line vs a Saints squad that marched over the Panthers in the wild-card round.
SHARK BITES
The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings’ last eight games in the playoffs.
The Vikings are 6-2 SU in their last eight games at home vs teams with winning records.
The total has gone OVER in five of the Saints’ last seven games as an underdog.
So much has changed with these two squads since their Week 1 meeting. Adrian Peterson was pouting on the sideline, Sam Bradford and Dalvin Cook had use of both of their knees and Case Keenum was a perennial backup. Fast-forward to the playoffs and now Keenum has a legitimate MVP case, Alvin Kamara is a lock for Offensive Rookie of the Year and the biggest shock of all, the Saints pass defense is competent.
Although ranked 15th in passing yards allowed this season, it’s a dramatic shift compared to past seasons when the Saints routinely were near the bottom of the NFL in that category. This upgrade (along with Kamara) is the main reason why New Orleans is back in the playoffs after missing out on the postseason for three straight years.
However, what is not shocking is how well the Vikings play at home. Minnesota has been a juggernaut at U.S. Bank Stadium this season and Mike Zimmer’s defense is no joke. The Vikes have held teams to an average of 12.5 points per game at home and in their final three regular-season games allowed only 5.7.
It’s not just this season that opponents have had their ship wrecked up north as Minnesota is 25-10 SU and 26-9 ATS in its last 35 home games. The Vikings’ No. 2-ranked rush defense will be put to the test vs Kamara and Mark Ingram, as the running backs combined to average over 193 yards from scrimmage per game this season. Minnesota may be up to the challenge, though, as its third-down defense was extraordinary. Opponents all year had an uphill battle to sustain drives vs the Vikings’ stingy defense, which allowed 25 percent of all third-down opportunities to be converted.
The fate of either team may come down to quarterback play. Keenum will be starting his first playoff game and was serviceable in seven home games this season, throwing eight touchdowns and only two interceptions with a 100.1 QBR. On the flip side, Drew Brees was competent away from the Bayou but it didn’t translate to wins as the Saints finished 4-4 SU and ATS on the road. Bettors will also be interested to know that in five road playoff games, Breezy is 1-4 SU and has thrown eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Very pedestrian numbers for a future Hall of Famer.
The total opened at 44 and while Minnesota’s defense is ferocious, the OVER should be heavily considered. Both the Saints and Vikings averaged over 23 points per game this season and New Orleans still managed 25.7 points per game on the road despite the mixed results in the W-L column.
Sportsbook Odds & Computer Pick
Betting fans looking to back the visiting New Orleans Saints in this one found them as 4.5-point underdogs earlier in the week, while the total was settling in the neighborhood of 44 at shops such as Sportsbook.
Prediction-scoring formulas run on this game picked a potential 29-14 result in favor of the Vikings. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.
This season the Minnesota Vikings are 13-3 overall and 11-5 against the spread, while the Saints are 12-5 and 8-9 ATS. As for the totals, Minnesota is 7-9 on the OU, and New Orleans is 10-7. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Minnesota vs New Orleans injuries news.
It's a betting matchup between the No. 2-rated Vikings and the No. 6-ranked Saints, according to the NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark.
Statistical Matchup
The game also pits Minnesota's No. 10-ranked offense, averaging 23.88 PPG, against a Saints defense that ranks No. 10 this week at 20.71 PPG. The Vikings aerial game is averaging 234.56 yards per game, more than the Saints secondary allows through the air, 229.59 YPG per game.
Defensively, the Saints feature the league's No. 12-rated road run defense, allowing 112.38 yards per game. The Vikings, meanwhile, rank No. 8 in rushing offense at home.
Recent Outings Betting Recap
In their last game, New Orleans' aerial attack generated 376 yards and the Saints came away with a 31-26 victory over Carolina at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Latavius Murray ran through the Chicago defense for 111 yards in Minnesota's last game, handing the Bears a 23-10 setback in their regular-season finale at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Betting Trends
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans' last 6 games
New Orleans is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Minnesota is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Minnesota is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
