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NFL Draft 2018 Odds And Picks

I must confess. I hate drafts. 

I’d rather watch a fourth-division cricket match than sit through a draft. And I’d rather watch second-division frisbee golf than cricket. 

Throw some odds on it, though, and the NFL draft is the one draft I actually pay attention to. Also because I love college football more than I love pizza. Which is a lot.  

It starts on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET and let’s get into the gambling side of it. Keep in mind, I’m approaching this as a college football betting guy, not as a draft analytic sabermetric super nerd. 

If you want to hear more picks and in-depth analysis, you really should take a listen to Ninja and I on this week’s episode of PoddsShark. We handicap the draft in full for the sports bettor with more odds and picks by position. I think there are a couple of gifts this year so take a listen.  

My picks for the top Three: 

No. 1 overall:  

Sam Darnold (USC) -250 
Josh Allen (Wyoming) +120 
Saquon Barkley (Penn State) +380 
Josh Rosen (UCLA) +1100 
Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) +1300 
Bradley Chubb (NC State) +2000 

My Pick: I can’t believe Sam Darnold is gonna go No. 1. I like him and all but he just doesn’t strike me as an all-time stud who has the ability to pull the Browns out of the dumpster. His turnovers cost USC this year in the first half of the season and I think it has a little to do with a wide throwing motion that looks long and high to me. But talk like that is also one of the reasons I hate drafts. I suggested Saquon Barkley at +600 on PoddsShark a long time ago and still think he’s the best player in the draft. I think Josh Rosen will be the QB who could have the best NFL career from this class but I don’t love this year’s group of QBs. 

No. 2 overall: 

Saquon Barkley +175 
Bradley Chubb +300 
Sam Darnold +275 
Josh Allen +350 
Josh Rosen +400 
Baker Mayfield +1500 
Lamar Jackson +4000 

My Pick: This might be my favorite play of the draft. Barkley should go No. 2 to the Giants with the only surprise here for me being if he goes No. 1. He’s the best player in the draft this year, in my opinion, and he’d be my No. 1 overall. I really believe he’ll make an impact right away in the NFL.  

No. 3 overall pick: 

Josh Rosen +140 
Baker Mayfield +150 
Sam Darnold +400 
Josh Allen +500 
Saquon Barkley +650 
Bradley Chubb +1100 

My Pick: The Jets need to draft a quarterback and I think Josh Rosen at +140 is my play here. There have been rumors the Jets like Baker Mayfield a lot also. I like Mayfield but I like Rosen a little better. Mayfield had an amazing O-line with some great playmakers at Oklahoma while Rosen still put up pretty good numbers at UCLA with neither of those. Rosen also has the look of a more polished NFL passer to me.