San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

This year was meant to be the coming-out party for 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, but he’s been overshadowed by another young signal-caller, Patrick Mahomes, who’s starting his first full season as well. Jimmy G will look to win their first head-to-head matchup, but it will be a tall task against the high-powered Chiefs, who are 6-point favorites at home. The total for this game opened at 55 points.

49ers vs Chiefs Game Center

MY BEST BET: THE OVER

In what is arguably the biggest story of this new NFL season, Patrick Mahomes has taken the league by storm.

In Week 1, he tossed four touchdowns en route to 38 points and a road win against the Chargers. How does he follow that up? By waltzing into Pittsburgh, throwing for six touchdowns and dropping 42 points on the Steelers — the Chiefs’ second road win of the young season. The 10 TD passes through two games is the most ever in NFL history.

No, we don’t expect Mahomes to continue at a pace of 80 TD passes this season, but he’s clearly locked in and he’s spreading the ball around (seven players have TD catches already), so this offense is very difficult to stop right now.

While they are scoring a lot of points, the Chiefs are giving up a lot as well. They surrendered 28 points and 541 yards in Week 1, then 37 points and 475 yards in Week 2. San Francisco’s offense hasn’t been running on all cylinders yet, as the Niners have yet to top 237 passing yards through two games, but they likely won’t have a choice if they are going to keep up with KC.

We expect more high-octane action from Mahomes, and Garoppolo will break out in his first big game of the season, making our best bet this week the OVER on the 55-point total.

THE TRENDS POINT TO KANSAS CITY COVERING

The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games overall, but their recent history in Kansas City paints a different story.

San Fran is 0-4 SU in its last four games at Arrowhead Stadium (with an average losing margin of 26 points). Couple that with their recent history of struggling in September (4-10 ATS in their last 14), while KC is 6-0 SU and ATS in its last six in the season’s first month, and the signs point toward Kansas City.

Granted, all of these stats were accrued before Jimmy Garoppolo was installed as San Francisco’s QB, and since he’s taken over, the 49ers have been a much more difficult opponent. But Kansas City hasn’t wavered at all in its string of strong ATS play (and overall dominance at home), so Jimmy G has his work cut out for him.

A 6-point spread gives the 49ers a bit of wiggle room, but Kansas City’s tendency to shine on home turf makes taking the favorites look like the smart play.

KANSAS CITY RB HUNTING FOR SUCCESS

Lost in the Patrick Mahomes lovefest is the fact that another high-profile Chiefs player has had a quiet start to the year.

Second-year running back Kareem Hunt broke out as a rookie last year, rushing for 1,327 yards and eight touchdowns, while adding 455 receiving yards and three scores. His 2018 season has not started as illustriously, as his yards per carry mark is down from 4.9 to 3.6, he has yet to log a rushing TD and he has just a single reception.

It’s hard for Chiefs fans to be upset, as Mahomes has powered the offense through the air, but as the season wears on, Kansas City will need to get Hunt more involved. If Week 3 is that day, then Kansas City adds another dynamic weapon to an already-scary offense, which just means more nightmares for defensive coordinators, and for bettors who are thinking about taking the UNDER in Chiefs games.