NHL Expert Picks February 26

Expert Picks Feb. 26: Dumb Penalties Will Cost Islanders

We've got three NHL expert picks for you to tail on February 26th. We're looking at three games on the schedule; Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals at 7 PM, then to Dallas when the Stars face the Islanders at 8 PM and finally jumping out to Edmonton for the Kings vs Oilers at 9:30 PM.

NHL Expert Picks: February 26th, 2024

Game 1: Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals (7 PM ET)

Ottawa Senators-1.5 (+200)O6.5 (-102)-118
Washington Capitals+1.5 (-245)U6.5 (-118)-102

Pick: U6.5 (-118)

It seems like Jacques Martin's defensive system is starting to click with the Sens. They've not only won seven of their last 10 games, but they've kept the total UNDER in six. Ottawa also has the third lowest xGA in all situations in their last 10 across the league. 

The Caps have been solid at keeping the total below the established line on home ice with a 17-11 record (60.7%). With Washington's solid record against the UNDER and Ottawa's great defense (recently), I'm taking UNDER 6.5 goals. 


Game 2: New York Islanders vs Dallas Stars (8 PM ET)

New York Islanders+1.5 (-166)O6 (-118)+145
Dallas Stars-1.5 (+140)U6 (-102)-175

Pick: Stars ML (-175)

The Islanders' weakness is the penalty kill. At 71.4% it's the worst in the league by a healthy margin. Since Jan 1, the Isles are shorthanded 3.45 times per game on the road. That's the seventh-most in the league. In that same time frame, the Stars hold the seventh-best PP% at 30%. 

New York will take dumb penalties and that's going to win them the game.

Game 3: Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers (9:30 PM ET)

Los Angeles Kings+1.5 (-175)O6.5 (-112)+130
Edmonton Oilers-1.5 (+145)U6.5 (-108)-175

Pick: Oilers ML (-175)

The Kings are great on the road (18-7-4) and the Oilers (17-8-2) are great at home. But zoom in on their form in this context since the Jan 1 (and specifically against Western teams), and a pick 'em game leans towards the Oilers. The Kings are 0-3SU while Edmonton is 3-2SU.

Edmonton has extra motivation to atone for that 4-0 loss to LA at the Staples Center just a few weeks ago.

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