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Leafs Playoff Betting Trends

It’s been 20,090 days (and counting) since the Toronto Maple Leafs last hoisted the Stanley Cup.

Generations have come and gone since the Leafs last experienced real playoff success, with decades of heartbreak hanging over the Toronto fan base.

If there’s been one group that’s benefited off the Leafs’ playoff incompetence (aside from the Boston Bruins), it’s bettors who have been fading Toronto for years. Just how bad have the Leafs been in the postseason and are there any trends worth noting? Let’s break it down.

Check out our NHL futures pages to see updated Stanley Cup odds and lock in your NHL postseason bets today:

Worst NHL Playoff Records

Worst Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Records (Last 15 Years)
Team Record Win Rate Betting Profit ($100 Unit)
Minnesota Wild 22-44 33.3% -$2000.13
Florida Panthers 8-15 34.8% -$673.87
Columbus Blue Jackets 15-26 36.6% -$432.67
Calgary Flames 18-31 36.7% -$1384.72
Winnipeg Jets 16-27 37.2% -$983.74
Edmonton Oilers 8-13 38.1% -$522.44
Toronto Maple Leafs 16-23 41.0% -$472.91

Results as of May 1, 2022 via Odds Shark data services

Contrary to popular belief, the Leafs aren’t the worst NHL playoff team in recent memory. They’re not even one of the three worst teams in Canada!

Despite not winning a single playoff series in the post-lockout NHL, the Leafs own a 41 percent win rate in postseason games. The mark is far better than the Minnesota Wild’s 33.3 percent rate, the worst in the league over the last 15 years.

Toronto’s Game 7 Woes

The Leafs’ playoff heartbreak in recent memory is immortalized in several Game 7 chokes. The trend began with the 4-1 lead against the Boston Bruins and has seen three more instances since then in the last decade alone. In that time, the Leafs have been outscored 20-10 in the final contests of seven-game playoff series.

After losing to the Montreal Canadiens in an opening-round Game 7 in 2021, the Leafs now own a 0-5 record in the last 15 years in series finale games.

Somehow, though, the Leafs still have the third-most Game 7 wins in NHL history and a nearly .500  record in those events (12-13). The Leafs’ all-time Game 7 wins trail only the Boston Bruins and Detroit Red Wings.

Leafs Playoff Betting Trends: Failing Expectations

The best teams in hockey rise to the moment. In the last 15 years, model organizations show up for the playoffs, posting the best postseason win rates in the league, like the Tampa Bay Lightning (59.3%), Boston Bruins (55.5%) and Pittsburgh Penguins (54.6%).

The Leafs own the seventh-worst playoff win percentage in the last decade and a half, but even worse, they’re flubbing the games they’re expected to win. During that time, the Leafs are 6-9 in games in which they were the betting favorite and wagering on Toronto in those contests would’ve cost you -$523.41 (for $100 bettors).

In recent memory, the Leafs have been a strong regular-season team and have put themselves in a position to finally win a playoff series. But, Toronto has lost its last eight series close-out games.

How To Bet On The NHL Playoffs

You can bet on individual games, but one of the best ways to bet on the Stanley Cup Playoffs is with a futures bet. At your sportsbook of choice, you’ll see Stanley Cup odds listed like this:

Tampa Bay Lightning +300
Toronto Maple Leafs +450
Calgary Flames +500
Boston Bruins +800

If you believe that it’s finally Toronto’s year, you can lay down $40 on the Leafs to win the Cup. If they do win it all, you’d see a payout of $220 at the above odds – your original $40 is returned along with your winnings of $180.