Looking at NHL 2023 Draft Odds and props

NHL Draft Odds: Is Fantilli A Lock To Go No. 2?

We're about to find out the next wave of NHL stars. The 2023 NHL Entry Draft is getting closer. I've already gone over my predicted order of proceedings with my 2023 NHL Mock Draft.

There's no way to use a computer for these picks so let's take some time to discuss betting props for the 2023 draft.

Who will be Drafted first overall pick at the 2023 NHL Draft?

It's Connor Bedard. The Chicago Blackhawks will draft Regina Pats product, Connor Bedard. Of course, they haven't said that but there's no reason for them to draft anyone else.

And look, you can't get odds on who will go first overall for a reason. It makes no sense for Chicago to draft anyone else. 

Who Will Be Drafted Second Overall At The 2023 NHL Draft?

Bedard is a lock for the first overall. When it comes to second overall there's room for debate, but it seems like Adam Fantilli will be the pick.

2023 NHL Draft - Number 2 Pick
Adam Fantilli-380
Leo Carlsson+250
Matvei Michkov+2500
Will Smith+3000


The implied odds that Fantilli will be selected by the Anaheim Ducks are 79%. It then drops down to 29% for Sweden's Leo Carlsson. I don't think Anaheim drifts away from Fantilli, who in just about any other year would be a sure-fire first-overall pick.

Fantilli was electric for the University of Michigan scoring 65 points in 36 games as a freshman. The 2023 Hobey Baker winner had better production (on a points-per-game basis) than 2023 Stanley Cup winner Jack Eichel had in his first year of NCAA hockey.

Fantilli has seen his odds drop by about 10% since the last update less than a week ago. I think the reason for that is that Matvei Michkov is in North America for the draft.

The Russian forward has been touted by some as being easily the second-best player in this draft. But because of a long contract with his Russian club, there was some concern he might not hit North America for years.

Who Will Be Drafted Third Overall At The 2023 NHL Draft?

You'll find some good value with the third overall pick. Sweden's Leo Carlsson is the favorite to go third overall at -180. At -180, a $10 winning bet would net you nearly $6 in profits. 

2023 NHL Draft - Number 3 Pick
Leo Carlsson-180
Will Smith+160
Adam Fantilli+350
Matvei Michkov+2000


Carlsson put up some incredible numbers at the SHL level with 25 points in 44 games as a young 17-year-old. Columbus wants center depth and he could easily fit what they're looking for. 

Will Smith is as his Elite Prospect page indicates "a human highlight reel". 

The fact that he's committed to Boston College and how serious he is about following through with that might keep him out of the top three. Columbus likely wants someone they can use ASAP. That's why my money's on Carlsson.

NHL Draft Odds To Go Top 10

Odds To Go Top 10
David Reinbacher-10000
Matvei Michkov-10000
Dalibor Dvorsky-4000
Ryan Leonard-2000
Zach Benson-1000
Gabe Perrault-250
Tom Willander+100
Nate Danielson+110
Matthew Wood+125
Axel Sandin-Pellikka+150
Dmitri Simashev+175
Samuel Honzek+175
Oliver Moore+225
Brayden Yager+250
Mikhail Gulyayev+500
Calum Ritchie+600
Eduard Sale+750


The best value here in my opinion is Eduard Sale. The Czech winger is number 11 in my Mock Draft. TSN's Craig Button has him going seventh overall. At +750 it's impossible not to consider a unit for Sale jumping into the top 10. The 6'2" forward put up a solid 14 points in 43 games in Czechia's top pro league. 

Matthew Wood appears at number 11 on Bob McKenzie's ranking. The Bobfather is usually a pretty good indicator of how NHL teams will actually draft. But there's reason to believe Wood could jump up at least a spot. 

The UConn freshman and youngest player in NCAA DIV 1 hockey put up 34 points in 35 games for the Huskies. Wildly impressive stuff. St. Louis, who picks 10th, is in a position where they can be patient with their prospects. It's the perfect spot for such a young man to continue to develop and grow his game. The Blues taking him at 10 makes a lot of sense. 

NHL Draft Matchups

We're looking into a few matchups; that's a bet where you decide who will be drafted first between two prospects.

NHL Draft Matchup Odds: Bonk vs Gulyayev

Matchup - Bonk vs Gulyayev
Player 1Player 2
Oliver Bonk (-240)Mikhail Gulyayev (+190)

We've got defenseman vs defenseman. Both are offensive-first guys who put up some solid numbers. But I give the edge to Radek Bonk's son, Oliver.

He's favored at -240 for a reason. About a week ago his odds were a bit shorter at -190.

Bonk is playing for the London Knights of the OHL whereas Gulyayev is out of Russia. Teams will stay away from Russian prospects, especially if there's a comparable North American player. 

NHL Draft Matchup Odds: Edstrom vs. Stramel

Matchup - Edstrom vs Stramel
Player 1Player 2
David Edstrom (-200)Charlie Stramel (+160)

In my opinion, Edstrom will go well before Stramel. 

The Swedish power-forward grew into the season steadily impressing with point-per-game production at the J20 level and earning a shot with a good Frolunda side in Sweden's top pro league. 

Stramel on the other hand, trailed off as the year went on and really didn't stand out nearly as much as he should have. 

Edstrom is going to go in the second round, around 40-50th overall while Stramel likely goes near the end of the second and maybe even into the third round. 

The odds didn't always look like they agreed with me. A week ago, Edmstrom was at -125 to Stramel's -105. It was much closer than we're seeing right now.

NHL Draft Matchup Odds: Honzek vs Simashev

Because I like my position with the first two matchups and because the odds may not present a ton of value anymore, I'm going to give you a third with better value.

Matchup - Honzek vs Simashev
Player 1Player 2
Samuel Honzek (+185)Dmitri Simashev (-230)


The transition from Slovakia to North America didn't slow down the 6'4" center Honzek. He put up 56 points and 23 goals in 43 games with the WHL's Vancouver Giants. 

Simashev is a big tough Russian defenseman who earned an 18-game call-up to the KHL last year. He can play a pro game and teams will like his size and grit as well as his passing ability.

But taking the Russian factor into the equation and that Honzek has already proved his game translates to North American ice means he'll go first in my opinion.

The odds have totally shifted since I last updated this page a few days ago. Honzek is now the dog at +185. I like this bet even more!

Last 10 First Overall Picks

Last 10 First Overall Picks
2022Juraj SlafkovskyMontreal Canadiens
2021Owen PowerBuffalo Sabres
2020Alexis LafreniereNY Rangers
2019Jack HughesNew Jersey Devils
2018Rasmus DahlinBuffalo Sabres
2017Nico HicsherNew Jersey Devils
2016Auston MatthewsToronto Maple Leafs
2015Connor McDavidEdmonton Oilers
2014Aaron EkbladFlorida Panthers
2013Nathan MacKinnonColorado Avalanche


Talk about Eastern "domination". Over the past 10 drafts, an Eastern Conference side has selected the first eight times. Domination might not be the right word, because, well, all of these teams were bad enough to win the first overall pick. 

Teams That Have Never Had The First Overall Pick

While you have teams like the Edmonton Oilers who've had four first-overall picks in a six-year span, some teams have never picked first. How do you think those fanbases felt seeing Edmonton waste all of those picks? (Except for McDavid, who's stupidly good at hockey.)

Teams that have never selected first
Teams Highest Draft Pick
Anaheim Ducks2nd - Bobby Ryan (2005)
Calgary Flames4th - Same Bennett (2014)
Carolina Hurricanes2nd - Andrei Svechnikov (2018)
Minnesota Wild3rd - Marian Gaborik (2000)
Nashville Predators2nd -David Legwand (1998)
San Jose Sharks2nd - Patrick Marleau (1997)
Seattle Kraken2nd - Matty Beniers (2021)
Vancouver Canucks2nd - Daniel Sedin (1999)
Vegas Golden Knights6th - Cody Glass (2017)


Don't feel bad for Vegas. They have a Cup. But how about Calgary!? They've been in the league for 43 years and have never had a top-three pick. They're due.

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