Canadian Election Odds: Trudeau Resignation Sets Timeline For Election

The New Year started with a bang North of the border with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing his resignation as the PM and Liberal Party Leader on January 6. That resignation will take effect once the Liberal Party chooses a new leader.

With his resignation, Trudeau asked and received a prorogation of Parliament from the Governor General until March 24, 2025, when the Conservatives are expected to succeed with a non-confidence motion that will take down the government and send Canadians to the polls.

Canadian Election odds favor the Conservative Party to win the 45th Federal Election with -2000 odds or a whopping 95% implied chance, and the Liberal Party with lengthy +900 odds.

Canada Election Odds: Winning Party

Odds as of January 6 at Sports Interaction

Canadian Election Odds Favorites: Conservatives

Based on polls, Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party holds a massive 21-point lead over the Liberals. Should these poll numbers bear fruit in the next Canadian election Poilievre's Conservatives would win a clear majority in the House of Commons, something the Cons haven't had since 2015.

Much of the Conservative's 21-point lead is due to fatigue surrounding now-former Liberal leader Justin Trudeau who's been in charge for over nine years. There is considerable fatigue for the long-serving Prime Minister and his party who've been in power through some significant blunders and crises:

The Conservatives have formed the opposition to Trudeau's government since 2015 and have been bidding their time to strike and take him down since.

In the last few months, Poilievre's Conservative party has tabled three confidence motions (losing all three) and will finally get their wish when Parliament returns. But how will they fare in an election where they aren't facing off against Trudeau who's been the basis of every single one of their talking points for the better part of the last decade?

Canadian Odds Value Pick: Liberal Party of Canada (+800)

As an NDP supporter, it pains me to say this, but it drips with truth, the only reasonable value pick for the winner of the 45th Canadian Election is the Liberal Party of Canada.

But there's a big if attached to that value pick; To stand any chance at winning the Liberals need to appoint a leader who can communicate and reach Canadians. Then, they might stand a chance at winning the next election and forming the next government. With the right leader, the Liberals have the political infrastructure to raise large sums of money necessary to mount a successful federal campaign.

But the clock starts now and the runway is short. The Liberals have 77 days before Parliament returns, and assuming an election is immediately called, there will be a 51-day election campaign. That's at most 128 days, just over four months, to convince the Canadian public that not only are these Liberals no longer the Justin Trudeau Liberals but worthy of their vote.

The challenge is monumental and will almost certainly fail, BUT if any party other than the Conservatives has a chance to win, it's the Liberals.

Can A Third Party Win The Next Federal Election?

The New Democratic Party of Canada is the only likely option as a third party to win but their +3300 odds show they hold a minuscule 3% implied odds to win.

The NDP has a few policy wins they can bank on going into the next election, namely pushing the Liberals to commit $13 billion to Dental Care over five years, Pharmacare for universal drug coverage like insulin, getting $10 child-care, anti-scab protection for federal employees, as well as the housing accelerator fund and giving federal employees a minimum of 10 sick days.

That's many good programs that help a lot of people but they were implemented by the Liberals and not by the NDP so it's hard to see if Canadians will discern that nuance when it comes to casting their votes and thus murkying the water further for the NDP.