Canada Election Odds: Canadian Election Prediction

No matter your political leanings, the 2021 Canadian election has certainly stimulated a great deal of conversation and controversy.

Canadians are divided not only on party allegiance, but on many hot-button topics such as climate change, Indigenous issues, affordable housing and all that comes with the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Canadian voters will make their choice on September 20, and oddsmakers at Sportsbook are letting bettors in on the action.

As of Thursday, the Liberal Party led in Canada election odds at -300, followed by the Conservative Party at +200. The other three major parties all have considerably longer Canada election odds.

At -300, the Liberals have 75 percent implied odds of winning the election. At +200, the Conservatives have implied odds of 33.33 percent to win.

Read on to see Canadian election predictions and a few election props available to bettors.

Canada Election Odds: Winning Party

Which party will win the Federal Election?
Party	August 17	September 16
Liberal Party	-1400	-300
Conservative Party	+550	+200
New Democratic Party	+10000	+5000
Bloc Quebecois	+25000	+50000
Green Party	+25000	+50000
People’s Party of Canada	+25000	+50000

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Who Will Win The Canadian Election?

Liberal Party

Incumbent Justin Trudeau called this snap election back in August, much to the chagrin of opposing parties and many Canadians in the wake of the pandemic’s fourth wave in Canada.

Trudeau, likely trying to capitalize on some good will generated at the beginning of the pandemic, has had a pretty rough campaign. Protesters have been the norm at his campaign stops – even pelting him with gravel in one instance. Many of the protests against Trudeau include people opposed to vaccine and mask mandates he backs.

Whatever advantage Trudeau thought he had when he called the election quickly eroded in the first few weeks of the election. That is reflected in the Canada election odds table as the Liberal Party’s odds of winning have dropped from -1400 to -300 in a month.

Trudeau’s popularity has clearly taken a huge hit after several political controversies and a six-year record that most would have to admit is less than sparkling.

Conservative Party

The Conservative Party, led by lawyer and former Canadian Armed Forces member Erin O’Toole, has mostly led a campaign of attack ads and blame with promises to “take back Canada.”

O’Toole fancies himself a “true blue Conservative” but has done his best to move the party toward the political center after initially courting many social conservatives. It has become pretty clear that O’Toole believes he has no chance of winning an election without moving the party a little further left on some key social issues.

However, it would appear that many left-leaning Canadians are hesitant to vote for the Conservatives not only on reputation, but because of their position on issues such as vaccine and mask mandates. O’Toole has said he won’t mandate either one, and the Conservative Party does not require that its candidates be vaxxed.

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Other Parties

Though none of the other three major parties are going to win the election, they could play important roles in determining who does.

Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the New Democrats, has polled as the most popular of all the leaders. However, Singh’s likeability does not seem like it will translate into many more seats. The NDP won just 24 seats in the 2019 election.

The Bloc Quebecois, a Quebec separatist party, campaigns only within the province during elections but could end up with enough seats to spoil another party’s hopes of a majority government.

The Green Party and People’s Party of Canada will be lucky to win more than a couple of seats in the entire country, if any at all.

Best Bet: Conservative Party (+200)

The latest polls have the Conservatives and Liberals pretty much dead even. Neither are likely to form a majority government at this point either.

So, our best bet at this point is to take the party with the most attractive odds with a realistic chance of winning: the Conservative Party. It’s pretty likely that Canadians will end up with another minority government led by Trudeau’s Liberal Party, but bettors aren’t making much money on those -300 odds.

Instead, opt for O’Toole’s Conservatives, who have just as good a chance at forming government in the eyes of the most recent polls.

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