Odds to win Canadian Election.

Canada Election Odds: A Leadership Change Might Be Coming

An election hasn't been called yet, but you can expect one to happen before October 20, 2025. You know Trudeau is going to call it before the mandatory date when his popularity peaking.

But just because we likely have a while until E-Day, it's not too early to look at what party the oddsmakers say might win the 45th Canadian federal election.

Canada Election Odds: Winning Party

Which party will win the Federal Election?

Conservative Party-150
Liberal Party+100
New Democratic Party+3100
Bloc Quebecois+3100
Green Party+6400
People’s Party of Canada+7500

Odds as of July 20

Should Conservatives Be Favored to Win Next Federal Election?

There's certainly some Justin fatigue going on in Canada, even if you aren't part of the "F Trudeau" crowd. He's been the Prime Minister for eight years now winning power back in 2015 when he defeated Steven Harper's Conservatives by grabbing 85 more seats than the Tories.

He's just not commanding the same attention he did when he first took over the Liberal Party. So by that alone I get why the Conservatives jump ahead of the LPC on the oddsboard.

Now factor in that the Conservatives have a fresh-faced young leader of their own in Pierre Poilievre. His algorithm-chasing tactics are generating the attention he's looking for but will that be enough to convince voters to give him power in 2025?

The blue party in Canada won the popular vote in the last two elections but didn't win enough seats to form the government. With Poilievre, oddsmakers currently feel like this is the Conservatives' time to retake power.

But what does Poilievre bring to the table other than not being Trudeau? He's got till 2025 to show that he's got a plan (and policies) Canadians want

Can The Liberal Party Win the 45th Federal Election?

Trudeau and his Liberal party are facing a ton of criticism from COVID, ballooning housing costs (or the lack of housing in general) and soaring inflation. That last one isn't Trudeau's fault per see, inflation is rampant around the world, but when you're the leader and nothing changes you catch heat. That's just the nature of the political business. 

Graph from Bank of Canada

To retain power, without the aid of the NDP propping him up, Trudeau and the Liberal party will have to demonstrate they have a handle on things now and going forward. 

Seeing inflation drop from a 10-year high of ~7% to below 6% is a start but it's going to have to fall a lot more before the Libs can take parade around Canada with a "Mission Accomplished" banner. 

The Conservatives know you can win votes by showing the public how little purchasing power they have. Again, this is a worldwide phenomenon but Trudeau and his Liberals are still susceptible if nothing changes.

Can The NDP Sneak In And Win The Next Federal Election?

I don't see it. At +3100, the New Democratic Party has as good of a chance of winning the Federal Election as a party that only represents one province (le Bloc Quèbécois).

The NDP has a few policy wins they can campaign on. Mainly dental care. Dental care was not something the Liberals would have created if not for Jagmeet Singh's NDP support.

And while the NDP gained 130,000 more votes in 2021 than in the 2015 election, they're still lagging way behind the Liberals and Conservatives in terms of overall popularity. A new dental care plan would boost their party status but it's not going to lift them to power. 

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