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Trudeau's Odds Improve Over Scheer to Win Canada's Federal Election Monday

Odds to win Monday's Canadian Election

October 18 UPDATE

After being deadlocked with conservative rival Andrew Scheer earlier in the week, Justin Trudeau's odds to win the Canadian Federal Election this Monday have jumped from -115 to -150, while Scheer's have dipped to plus money at +115.

October 15 UPDATE

With just a few more days until the 2019 Canadian federal election, the odds of Justin Trudeau and Conservative challenger Andrew Scheer to be the country’s next prime minister are deadlocked. When some questions about Scheer’s campaign transparency came into focus last week, Trudeau did enjoy a brief futures odds lead at -150, but both head into the election with -115 futures odds to win.

Odds to Win the Canadian Federal Election

CandidateJuly 29Sept. 19Sept. 27Oct. 8Oct. 15Oct. 18
Justin Trudeau-120+110+110-150-115-150
Andrew Scheer-110-110-125+115-115+115
Jagmeet Singh+1200+900+1200+2000+2000+2000
Elizabeth May+10000+3300+3300+25000+25000+25000
Maxime Bernier+50000+3300+3300+25000+25000+25000

Exact outcome of the Canadian federal election (Bovada)

OptionOdds
Conservative minority+120
Liberal minority+150
Liberal majority+500
Conservative majority+850
NDP minority +2000
Tie+4500
Green minority +25000
PPC minority+25000

Odds as of October 18 at Bovada

Polling suggests that Trudeau’s approval ratings are near record lows and that both he and Scheer are polling at just over 30 percent, which wouldn’t be enough to earn a majority in Canada’s legislature. So, if either of them wins, they’ll need to collaborate with smaller parties to get stuff accomplished in the next term. Jagmeet Singh is the leader of the left-leaning New Democratic Party and possesses the third-best odds to win the Canadian election at +2000 should Trudeau or Scheer slip up in the coming days. However, it’s more likely that if Trudeau’s Liberal party wins the election, he and Singh will need to find common ground and compromise as legislative partners.

Bloomberg recently ran a piece highlighting the tight race along with a timeline of events that shows how Trudeau’s odds have varied since campaigning began last month. While the media firestorm surrounding his use of blackface in the past dropped his approval rating from 34.4 to 32.9 percent, it was the French-speaking debate on October 10 where Trudeau experienced a significant dip below Scheer. The knock on the Conservative is he’s a relative unknown who wasn’t upfront that he had Canada-United States dual citizenship until the media pressed him on the subject. A few other inconsistencies from Scheer’s past have also created cloudiness for potential supporters.

It’s worth noting that only four times in Canada’s history has a prime minister earned only one term, which is great news for Trudeau as people head to the polls.

The long shots to win are Elizabeth May (+25000) of the Green Party, Maxime Bernier (+25000) of the People’s Party of Canada and Yves-Francois Blanchet (+75000) of the Bloc Quebecois.