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odds to win 2020 election

If on May 6 you wagered $100 at the Bovada sportsbook on Hillary Clinton to win the 2020 presidential election and she pulled an all-time stunner and accomplished the impossible, you’d still be 700 bucks shy of affording the cheapest ticket to the Biden campaign’s upcoming virtual fundraising dinner headlined by the former secretary of state. While Clinton’s 20-to-1 odds to win this November’s election are sure to raise some eyebrows, tickets to “A Virtual Conversation with Hillary Rodham Clinton”, which range from $2,800 to $50,000, are in an effort to raise money for Biden’s election fund.

It’s fascinating that a person with the third-best odds to win the 2020 election is charging an arm and a leg to raise money for a Democratic candidate she just endorsed and isn’t herself running for office. Makes you mind wander, doesn’t it?

Former vice-president Biden’s odds to win the 2020 election dipped from +120 to +135 week over week as a sexual assault allegation earned more attention from national media outlets and led to Biden addressing it and categorically denying the assault occurred. President Donald Trump’s odds to win remain flat at -120 for the third time over the past five weeks.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook Bovada has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker
Candidate May 6 April 29 April 22 April 15 April 8 April 2 March 28 March 18 March 16 March 14 March 8 Mar 4 Feb 27 Feb 13 Feb 5 Feb 4 Jan 29 Jan 21 Jan 14 Jan 7
Donald Trump -120 -120 -125 -125 -120 -115 -115 -105 EVEN -115 -130 -150 -180 -170 -150 -140 -135 -140 -145 -115
Joe Biden +135 +120 +125 +125 +140 +140 +130 -105 -105 +115 +125 +160 +2000 +1600 +850 +600 +550 +450 +550 +400
Hillary Clinton +2000 +4000 +5000 +5000 +6600 +6600 +6600 +5000 +5000 +6000 +10000 +6000 +8000 +6600 +5000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +4000 +4000
Andrew Cuomo +3000 +3000 +3300 +3300 +2500 +1000 +2200                          
Bernie Sanders OTB OTB OTB OTB +3000 +1800 +3000 +4000 +3000 +2500 +1600 +1200 +275 +375 +425 +350 +250 +500 +500 +700
Mike Pence +6000 +6000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +6000 +6000 +4000 +3000 +2800 +20000 +20000 +12500 +15000 +12500 +12500 +12500 +12500 +8000 +8000
Nikki Haley +15000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +10000 +10000 +10000 OTB +10000 +10000 +20000 +50000 +30000 +20000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +10000 +10000 +10000

Odds as of May 6 at Bovada

How can betting odds predict the next POTUS?

Check out our How to Bet on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election article to learn more about political betting.

Read Here

2020 Election: Coronavirus Response

Within a 24-hour period, there were conflicting reports that the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force was looking to wind down by Memorial Day before the president tweeted early Wednesday morning to stress that “because of this success, the Task Force will continue on indefinitely with its focus on SAFETY & OPENING UP OUR COUNTRY AGAIN.” The “shrug” emoji has never been so apt.

A recent Monmouth University national poll saw President Trump’s COVID-19 response approval ratings dip for a third consecutive month. Fifty percent of those surveyed believed he was doing a good job in CV-19 response back in March, 46 percent in April’s poll and 42 percent as of May. On the flip side, 51 percent of those surveyed believe he’s doing a bad job, up from 49 percent last month and 45 percent back in March.

2020 Election: Poll Position

In this space last week, I highlighted a couple of the more reputable polling outlets that bettors could lean on for election odds insight in the coming months. As expected, Monmoth University's monthly national poll for May was recently released. The independent study found Joe Biden has the support of 50 percent of registered voters, while President Trump polled at 41 percent. Biden’s voter support margin improved from 48-44 percent month over month even as more reports of an alleged sexual assault of a former Senate staff member loom over his campaign. Biden publicly denied the allegation last Friday, stating, “This never happened.”

A CNBC / Change Research poll surveyed more than 3,500 likely voters across six battleground states and learned of an obvious partisan gap in regards to coronavirus precautions as the economy slowly begins to reopen. It learned that more than 50 percent of Republican voters surveyed believe daycares, bars and hair salons are safe to open, while less than 10 percent of Democratic voters polled believe any of those businesses are safe to be open during the ongoing pandemic. Neither side strongly believed that now is the time to put fans back in sporting event stadiums / arenas and the same can also be assumed of music concerts and amusement parks.

Partisan Gap in Which Businesses Are Considered Safe to Reopen
Business % of Democratic Voters Polled % of Republican Voters Polled
Daycare 5% 54%
Sporting Event 2% 37%
Bars 4% 52%
Hair Salons 9% 77%

2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets

While President Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes. While bookmakers believe the Democratic presidential candidate wins the popular vote again, President Trump is 9-to-1 to win the popular vote by less than 1.5%.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Option Odds
GOP by 10.5% or more +5000
GOP by 9.0% to 10.5% +5000
GOP by 7.5% to 9% +5000
GOP by 6.0% to 7.5% +5000
GOP by 4.5% to 6.0% +3000
GOP by 3.0% to 4.5% +2500
GOP by 1.5% to 3.0% +1100
GOP by less than 1.5% +900
Dems by less than 1.5% +750
Dems by 1.5% to 3.0% +700
Dems by 3.0% to 4.5% +700
Dems by 4.5% to 6.0% +700
Dems by 6.0% to 7.5% +850
Dems by 7.5% to 9.0% +1000
Dems by 9.0% to 10.5% +1500
Dems by 10.5% or more +900

Odds as of May 6 at Bovada

Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.

While Kamala Harris remains a heavy favorite to earn the nomination at +190 this week, look at Michelle Obama’s odds, up from +3000 to +1000 in less than a month’s time. Many pundits would believe Stacey Abrams is a steal at 12-to-1.

Who Will Joe Biden Choose As His Vice-Presidential Running Mate?
Option April 29 April 22* April 8 April 2 March 25 March 13 March 10 March 8
Kamala Harris +190 -150 +250 +210 +175 +200 +250 +300
Amy Klobuchar +360 +400 +400 +300 +300 +250 +175 +220
Stacey Abrams +1200 +1200 +900 +1000 +400 +500 +350 +325
Elizabeth Warren +500 +450 +1500 +1400 +1200 +500 +1200 +425
Gretchen Whitmer +1400 +600 +325 +600 +1500 OTB OTB OTB
Catherine Cortez Masto +1600 +2000 +1000 +900 +2000 +2000 +2500 +900
Val Demings +4000 +4000 +1400 +1400 +2000 OTB OTB OTB
Tammy Duckworth +3000 +5000 +3000 +5000 +2200 OTB OTB OTB
Hillary Clinton +2500 +3300 +2000 +2000 +2500 OTB OTB OTB
Michelle Obama +1000 +1800 +3000 +3000 +2800 +1400 +1000 N/A
Tammy Baldwin +4000 +5000 +5000 +5500 +3300 OTB OTB OTB
Michelle Lujan Grisham +6000 N/A +2400 +5500 +3500 N/A +2000 N/A
Tulsi Gabbard +9500 N/A +5000 +5000 +5000 OTB OTB OTB
Susan Rice +9500 N/A +5000 +6600 +6000 OTB OTB OTB

Odds as of April 29 at BetOnline Sportsbook , while the rest of the chart odds are via Bovada

Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds

Take a look at the updated odds from BetOnline Sportsbook on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.

The Dems are down from -330 favorites to win the popular vote to -275 over the past six weeks, with the Republicans coming back as +200 underdogs.

For months, the likeliest election result for Trump has been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. However, for the past four weeks, he’s now most likely to lose the Electoral College and popular vote. Granted, at +140, there is only 41.67 percent implied probability of it happening.

What’s striking is the gap between +140 to lose both electoral and popular and +225 to win electoral and lose popular. This update is pretty jarring, but the coronavirus response and shaky stock market have done President Trump no favors the past month. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.

Donald Trump Election Special
Option May 6 April 29 April 22 April 15 April 8 April 2 March 25 March 18 March 10 March 8
To win Electoral College, lose popular vote +225 +225 +225 +225 +200 +200 +200 +200 +200 +150
To lose Electoral College and popular vote +140 +140 +140 +140 +110 +110 +110 +110 +125 +200
To win Electoral College and popular vote +225 +225 +250 +250 +300 +300 +300 +300 +300 +250
To lose Electoral College, win popular vote +1400 +1400 +1400 +1400 +2500 +2500 +2500 +2500 +1400 +1400

Odds as of May 6 at BetOnline Sportsbook 

Which party will win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election?
Option May 6 April 29 April 22 April 15 April 8 April 2 March 25 March 18 March 10 March 8
Democrats -275 -275 -275 -280 -290 -300 -330 -290 -275 -190
Republicans +200 +200 +200 +205 +210 +220 +235 +210 +200 +145

Odds as of May 6 at Bovada

Which Party will Win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
Party May 6 April 29 April 22 April 15 April 8 April 2 March 25 March 18 March 13 March 10 March 8
Republican Party -125 -125 -125 -125 -125 -115 -115 -115 -115 -130 -160
Democratic Party -105 -105 -105 -105 -105 -115 -115 -115 -115 EVEN a+120

Odds as of May 6 at Bovada

Despite efforts to expedite a reboot of the American economy after more than a month offline, the country is full speed ahead towards another recession. The odds soared from -700 this time last week to -1200 the first full week of May and those odds carry an implied probability of 92.31 percent.

Will There Be a Recession in Trump’s First Term?
Option Odds
Yes -1200
No +600

Odds as of May 6 at Bovada. The U.S. economy must experience two consecutive quarters with negative annual growth rate in real GDP (rounded to first decimal)