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Trump, Biden Election Odds Neutral as American Economy Reopens

2020 election odds

As more regions around the U.S. continue to phase out stay-at-home restrictions and the country’s economic sectors begin to reopen, the United States of America definitely possesses more of a segmented spirit to this post-pandemic process.

Meanwhile, new cases and deaths tied to the coronavirus continue to mount as these “Goldilocks principled” economic aspirations play out in real time. However, even with all these unique nooks, crannies and gray areas within America’s electorate, the path forward – as it does every four years – will come down to Red vs Blue this November. President Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2020 election were flat at -120 for a third consecutive week, while former vice-president Joe Biden’s odds ticked up to +130.

A week after hitting the oddsboard at 20-to-1, Hillary Clinton faded back to +2200 this week, while Michelle Obama returned to the betting field for the first time in a long time, at 50-to-1.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook Bovada has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker
CandidateMay 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 28March 18March 16March 14March 8Mar 4Feb 27Feb 13Feb 5Feb 4Jan 29Jan 21Jan 14Jan 7
Donald Trump-120-120-120-125-125-120-115-115-105EVEN-115-130-150-180-170-150-140-135-140-145-115
Joe Biden+130+135+120+125+125+140+140+130-105-105+115+125+160+2000+1600+850+600+550+450+550+400
Hillary Clinton+2200+2000+4000+5000+5000+6600+6600+6600+5000+5000+6000+10000+6000+8000+6600+5000+5000+5000+5000+4000+4000
Andrew Cuomo+4000+3000+3000+3300+3300+2500+1000+2200             
Michelle Obama+5000                    
Bernie SandersOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB+3000+1800+3000+4000+3000+2500+1600+1200+275+375+425+350+250+500+500+700
Mike Pence+6000+6000+6000+5000+5000+5000+6000+6000+4000+3000+2800+20000+20000+12500+15000+12500+12500+12500+12500+8000+8000
Nikki Haley+20000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000OTB+10000+10000+20000+50000+30000+20000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000

Odds as of May 13 at Bovada

How can betting odds predict the next POTUS?

Check out our How to Bet on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election article to learn more about political betting.

Read Here

2020 Election: Coronavirus Response

Gone are the days of the daily coronavirus task force press briefings, but President Trump did host one earlier this week – sans Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx – to tout the United States’ pandemic testing system, which he referred to as “unmatched and unrivaled anywhere in the world.” He said the country is on pace to clear 10 million tests by the end of this week, which is about three percent of the nation’s population.

The day after Trump’s press briefing applauding all the efforts to test Americans for coronavirus, Dr. Fauci and CDC director Robert Redfield engaged in a Q & A with senators during a socially distanced-approved tele-hearing. The theme of their message was simple: we’re making progress, but there’s still a long way to go and it would be great if we pumped the brakes a little.

Dr. Fauci warned that this rush to reopen the economy could have consequences:

“Because I feel if that occurs, there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you might not be able to control. Which, in fact, paradoxically, will set you back, not only leading to some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery. It would almost turn the clock back, rather than going forward.”

Trump has countered Dr. Fauci’s point by claiming that mental health and drug use could also claim lives if the economy is shuttered for too long. This as reports surfaced that the CDC and Trump administration guidelines failed to come together on a shared plan to reopen the economy.

If the economy thrives in the next three to four months, Trump will applaud his urging to reopen despite the fact the administration’s guidelines instruct the governors to use their best judgment.

If the coronavirus lingers and flare-up cases start to rise in that time frame, Trump will likely blame the governors for their inadequacies. This is the playbook.

2020 Election: Poll Position

Joe Biden said in an interview earlier this week that he’ll continue to campaign from his home, virtually, and limit his public events as he reinvents ways to connect with American voters. Some believe this strategy could come back to haunt him if it drags on too long. The former vice-president disagrees.

“The idea that somehow we are being hurt by my keeping to the rules and following the instructions that have been put forward by the docs is absolutely bizarre,” Biden said. “I reject the premise that somehow this is hurting us. There’s no evidence of that.”

His campaign manager doubled down with conviction:

“Voters don’t give a s--- about where he’s filming from,” Jen O’Malley Dillon told The Associated Press. “What they care about is what he’s saying and how we connect with them.”

This as FiveThirtyEight released an updated study of how President Trump has handled the coronavirus pandemic. The study, which averaged out polls dating back to January, learned that overall “a calculation of the share of all Americans who approve of the president’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak” was 43.4 percent compared to 52.3 percent who disapprove. As you may have guessed, those numbers swing drastically when broken down by political party:

Republicans: 82.7 percent approve of the president’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak

Democrats: 12.9 percent approve of the president’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak

2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets

While President Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes. While bookmakers believe the Democratic presidential candidate wins the popular vote again, President Trump is 10-to-1 to win the popular vote by less than 1.5%.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory
OptionOdds
GOP by 10.5% or more+3300
GOP by 9.0% to 10.5%+5000
GOP by 7.5% to 9%+5000
GOP by 6.0% to 7.5%+5000
GOP by 4.5% to 6.0%+3000
GOP by 3.0% to 4.5%+2500
GOP by 1.5% to 3.0%+1800
GOP by less than 1.5%+1000
Dems by less than 1.5%+800
Dems by 1.5% to 3.0%+500
Dems by 3.0% to 4.5%+550
Dems by 4.5% to 6.0%+700
Dems by 6.0% to 7.5%+900
Dems by 7.5% to 9.0%+1200
Dems by 9.0% to 10.5%+1400
Dems by 10.5% or more+900

Odds as of May 13 at Bovada

Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.

While Kamala Harris remains a heavy favorite to earn the nomination at +165 this week, look at Susan Rice’s recent rise to the top from 95-to-1 to 16-to-1.

Who Will Joe Biden Choose As His Vice-Presidential Running Mate?
OptionMay 13April 29April 22*April 8April 2March 25March 13March 10March 8
Kamala Harris+165+190-150+250+210+175+200+250+300
Amy Klobuchar+450+360+400+400+300+300+250+175+220
Stacey Abrams+1200+1200+1200+900+1000+400+500+350+325
Elizabeth Warren+550+500+450+1500+1400+1200+500+1200+425
Gretchen Whitmer+1000+1400+600+325+600+1500OTBOTBOTB
Catherine Cortez Masto+1800+1600+2000+1000+900+2000+2000+2500+900
Val Demings+2500+4000+4000+1400+1400+2000OTBOTBOTB
Tammy Duckworth+3000+3000+5000+3000+5000+2200OTBOTBOTB
Hillary Clinton+2000+2500+3300+2000+2000+2500OTBOTBOTB
Michelle Obama+750+1000+1800+3000+3000+2800+1400+1000N/A
Tammy Baldwin+5000+4000+5000+5000+5500+3300OTBOTBOTB
Michelle Lujan Grisham+3000+6000N/A+2400+5500+3500N/A+2000N/A
Tulsi Gabbard+9500+9500N/A+5000+5000+5000OTBOTBOTB
Susan Rice+1600+9500N/A+5000+6600+6000OTBOTBOTB

Odds as of May 13 at BetOnline, while the rest of the chart odds are via Bovada

Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds

Take a look at the updated odds from BetOnline on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.

The Dems are down from -330 favorites to win the popular vote to -275 over the past seven weeks, with the Republicans coming back as +200 underdogs.

For months, the likeliest election result for Trump has been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. However, for the past five weeks, he’s now most likely to lose the Electoral College and popular vote. Granted, at +140, there is only 41.67 percent implied probability of it happening.

What’s striking is the gap between +140 to lose both electoral and popular and +225 to win electoral and lose popular. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.

Donald Trump Election Special
OptionMay 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 10March 8
To win Electoral College, lose popular vote+225+225+225+225+225+200+200+200+200+200+150
To lose Electoral College and popular vote+140+140+140+140+140+110+110+110+110+125+200
To win Electoral College and popular vote+225+225+225+250+250+300+300+300+300+300+250
To lose Electoral College, win popular vote+1400+1400+1400+1400+1400+2500+2500+2500+2500+1400+1400

Odds as of May 13 at BetOnline 

Which party will win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election?
OptionMay 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 10March 8
Democrats-275-275-275-275-280-290-300-330-290-275-190
Republicans+200+200+200+200+205+210+220+235+210+200+145

Odds as of May 13 at Bovada

Which Party will Win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
PartyMay 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 13March 10March 8
Republican Party-125-125-125-125-125-125-115-115-115-115-130-160
Democratic Party-105-105-105-105-105-105-115-115-115-115EVENa+120

Odds as of May 13 at Bovada

Despite efforts to expedite a reboot of the American economy after more than a month offline, the country is full speed ahead toward another recession. The odds soared from -700 a couple of weeks ago to -4000 the second week of May thanks to an unemployment rate over 14 percent.

Will There Be a Recession in Trump’s First Term?
OptionOdds
Yes-4000
No+1000

Odds as of May 13 at Bovada. The U.S. economy must experience two consecutive quarters with negative annual growth rate in real GDP (rounded to first decimal)