OK, I think we speak for everyone when we say, “How crazy was last night?” To say the political odds were swinging hard in the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election would be a massive understatement.
The betting and political world was turned on its head in the evening hours of the November 3 election, and by Wednesday morning both President Donald Trump AND Democratic challenger Joe Biden had taken turns as massive favorites and underdogs.
Tracking the U.S. Presidency Odds Movement
Donald Trump walked into the 2020 election facing an odds deficit when he was tabbed by sportsbooks like Sportsbook and [Sportsbook not available for your region] as a +170 underdog. He had been an underdog since September 2 but then results from Florida started to come in and the race tightened by the minute:
#ElectionDay The odds to win the 2020 US Presidential Election are now set as a pick'em at Sportsbook.
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) November 4, 2020
Updated odds:
Joe Biden -115
Donald Trump -115
Trump went on to take Florida and Ohio and at 9:24 p.m. ET he became the favorite for the 2020 U.S. presidency:
BREAKING:
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) November 4, 2020
Donald Trump is the betting favorite to win the 2020 US Presidential Election for the first time since September 2nd. #ElectionDay
Updated odds (per Sportsbook):
Donald Trump -130
Joe Biden EVEN
With those two states apparently lost, it seemed bleak that Joe Biden would make a comeback, especially considering every modern president has won Ohio in his bid for the White House.
Biden’s chances seemed even bleaker within 30 minutes of Trump becoming the favorite because the president’s odds skyrocketed to -600:
Announcement:
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) November 4, 2020
Donald Trump has moved all the way up to being the -600 favorite (85.71% implied odds) at Sportsbook to win the 2020 US Presidential Election. #ElectionNight #Elections2020
Updated odds:
Donald Trump -600
Joe Biden +375
Biden’s Return To Being The Favorite For Presidency
Joe Biden and the Democrats, if they were tracking live betting odds, had to have been nervous going into the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Nearly every state the Republicans won in 2016 had been won again in 2020, including key battleground states like Florida and Ohio that were, according to political polls, ripe for the taking.
Shortly after 2 a.m. ET, Trump still had a comfortable lead, sitting at -240 odds for re-election:
Latest odds to win the 2020 US Presidential Election #ElectionNight #Elections2020 (Sportsbook):
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) November 4, 2020
Donald Trump -240 (70.59% implied probability)
Joe Biden +175
By then, a lot of political analysts and odds trackers had decided to turn in after seven straight hours of madness, likely aiming to get a few hours of sleep in anticipation of trying to do it all again on Wednesday. What they didn’t realize is they’d wake up to a whole new election with Biden returning to favorite status:
Latest odds to win the 2020 US Presidential Election #ElectionNight #Elections2020 (Sportsbook):
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) November 4, 2020
Joe Biden -400 (80% implied probability)
Donald Trump +280
How did this happen? Well, for starters, the Democrats look to be getting Arizona and its 11 electoral votes, marking the lone state that had flipped from the 2016 results and a state that wasn’t initially pegged for the Dems.
Another factor that was a polarizing subject coming into the 2020 U.S. presidential election was mail-in ballots. The number of ballots cast via this voting method is in the millions and oddsmakers had to start taking those votes into consideration.
Look at how the betting odds shifted within a 12-hour window as Trump and Biden traded the favorite label:
#Elections2020 How the US Election odds have shifted over the past 12 hours:
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) November 4, 2020
9:00pm et
Biden -145
Trump +110
9:25pm et
Biden -110
Trump -120
10:10pm et
Biden +450
Trump -775
12:00am et
Biden +105
Trump -135
2:00am et
Biden +175
Trump -240
7:30am et
Biden -390
Trump +270
Here is a more intricate breakdown from our Presidential Odds Page that shows the odds changing quickly:
Live Presidential Betting Odds Timeline
| Time | D. Trump Odds | J. Biden Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 11:00 am ET | +320 | -460 |
| 10:00 am ET | +340 | -475 |
| 9:00 am ET | +235 | -330 |
| 7:30 am ET | +270 | -390 |
| 2:00 am ET | -240 | +175 |
| 1:40 am ET | -210 | +155 |
| 1:25 am ET | -180 | +135 |
| 1:10 am ET | -160 | +120 |
| 1:00 am ET | -145 | +110 |
| 12:50 am ET | -160 | +120 |
| 12:30 am ET | -165 | +125 |
| 12:15 am ET | -150 | +115 |
| 12:10 am ET | -180 | +135 |
| 12:00 am ET | -135 | +105 |
| 11:50 pm ET | -150 | +115 |
| 11:40 pm ET | -165 | +125 |
| 11:30 pm ET | -190 | +145 |
| 11:15 pm ET | -295 | +215 |
| 11:05 pm ET | -330 | +235 |
| 11:00 pm ET | -240 | +180 |
| 10:45 pm ET | -270 | +200 |
| 10:35 pm ET | -250 | +185 |
| 10:20 pm ET | -300 | +220 |
| 10:10 pm ET | -775 | +450 |
| 10:00 pm ET | -370 | +260 |
| 9:40 pm ET | -220 | +155 |
| 9:35 pm ET | -245 | +180 |
| 9:30 pm ET | -200 | +150 |
| 9:25 pm ET | -120 | -110 |
| 9:20 pm ET | -110 | -120 |
| 9:00 pm ET | +110 | -145 |
| 8:50 pm ET | +115 | -150 |
| 8:45 pm ET | +135 | -180 |
| 8:35 pm ET | +120 | -150 |
| 8:25 pm ET | +100 | -130 |
| 8:15 pm ET | -110 | -120 |
| 8:00 pm ET | +100 | -135 |
| 7:50 pm ET | +105 | -135 |
| 7:45 pm ET | +125 | -155 |
| 7:35 pm ET | +145 | -175 |
| 7:30 pm ET | +160 | -190 |
| 7:25 pm ET | +180 | -210 |
| 7:20 pm ET | +190 | -220 |
| 7:10 pm ET | +175 | -215 |
| 7:00 pm ET | +170 | -200 |
| 6:00 pm ET | +170 | -200 |
With key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia still counting ballots, this race is not over and could stretch into next week to determine a Sportsbook if results are contested by either party. BUCKLE UP!!!
