It’s easy to forget that the impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump’s dealings with Ukraine started with a whistleblower’s complaint. It’s been reported that the unidentified person raised concerns after speaking to an official who was on the phone call between Trump and Ukraine’s president when it’s alleged a political quid pro quo was discussed.
More than two months after the impeachment inquiry was announced, odds are -215 that the whistleblower does NOT publicly testify before November 1, 2020, and +160 that the whistleblower DOES publicly testify before that date. To handicap it another way, the odds imply a 68.25 percent chance that the whistleblower does NOT testify before next November and only a 38.46 percent chance that they do.
| Option | Nov. 7 | Nov. 12 |
|---|---|---|
| No | -200 | -215 |
| Yes | +150 | +160 |
Odds as of November 12 at Sportsbook
In the days leading up to these odds originally being released, Donald Trump Jr. was slammed for outing the alleged whistleblower on social media, while Kentucky Senator Rand Paul demanded the media print the alleged whistleblower’s name.
All of this political theater is playing out while the Whistleblower Protection Act of 1989 hangs by a thread. The law “explicitly tasks the president with enforcing protections against retaliation.” However, President Trump isn’t a huge fan of inherited presidential “tasks” and with news cycles updating every 30 minutes and the social media machine working hard to out critics and cynics, it’s hard to imagine the whistleblower’s identity remaining private for another 12 months. Once it’s out, they might have reason to share all they know in a public hearing.
Impeachment Inquiry 101
In case you’re reading this for the first time or are unfamiliar with United States government, if Trump is impeached, he’ll face a Senate trial. The members of the Senate will vote on whether to remove the president from office, with the vote requiring a two-thirds majority. We’re not there yet, but with the House Judiciary Committee questioning witnesses on a regular basis, once their impeachment inquiry wraps, it’s more than likely Trump will, indeed, be impeached before the 2020 election.
The basis of the impeachment inquiry is that, according to a whistleblower’s report, Trump engaged in a quid pro quo where he would withhold foreign aid to Ukraine unless their government investigated alleged corruption tied to his political rivals, including Democratic candidate and former vice-president Joe Biden. There were also concerns tied to 2016 election interference.
