So it looks like Germany’s Bundesliga is going to be the first major football league to return as Chancellor Angela Merkel and the government has green-lit a May 16th return. With the news confrimed earlier Thursday morning, it's time to toss on the ol’ lederhosen, fill up the bierstiefel and get ready to watch – and bet – the Bundesliga once again.
You have to go all the way back to March 11 for the last Bundesliga game: a 2-1 win for Borussia Monchengladbach over Köln. Halcyon days indeed.
It feels like so long ago that you may have forgotten some of the betting numbers that dominated the league so I’m going to present those for you here as, fingers crossed, we get meaningful games sooner rather than later.
Before diving into it, if you're new to betting the Bundesliga, be sure to check out our page on How to Bet the Bundesliga as well as our page on the best sites to bet on soccer.
Most Profitable ML Bet: Hoffenheim (+$2345.55)
After 25 games, Hoffenheim sits ninth in the table with just 10 wins and 35 points. Only a couple of points off of Schalke for that Europa League spot, but still.
In fact, the “most profitable” moneyline wager in Germany’s top flight can be traced to one game: the 2-1 win away to Bayern Munich on October 5th.
A brace from Sargis Adamyan on either side of a Robert Lewandowski's 73rd-minute goal saw Die Kraichgauer cash as massive +2200 underdogs. Easily the biggest moneyline upset of the season to date. Without that win, Hoffenheim's earnings obviously take a massive hit.
So can we really call Hoffenheim the best ML bet in the league? On the one hand, yes. They earned it by topping the titans of the league. On the other hand, a couple of more consistent, safer bets would be #2 and #3 on the list: Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Monchengladbach respectively.
Leverkusen (+$1055.21) had been absolutely rolling since December 21st with seven wins in their previous nine games before the shutdown. Gladbach (+$995.41) began the season as one of Europe’s hotter clubs with eight wins in its first 10 games and had won two of three prior to the shutdown.
Most Costly ML Bet: Werder Bremen (-$1346.86)
Perhaps even more bizarre than Hoffenheim being the most profitable team is Bremen costing bettors the most money.
The great site Transfermarkt has Bremen ranked #11 in terms of market valuation in the league, but prior to COVID-19, this club was 17th in the table (second last) and was four points behind Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Bremen finished eighth last season, won the league in 2003/04 and was runner up in 2007/08. Rough times indeed for the club.
Just two points up on last-placed Paderborn, Bremen had one win, one draw and nine losses in its last 11 games before the hiatus.
Best OVER Record: Dortmund (17-5-3 O/U)
Frequently one of the higher-scoring leagues in Europe, the Bundesliga certainly caters to those looking for wide-open football with plenty of goals at either end. It’s also an appealing league for bettors looking to hammer the OVER without having to give it too much thought.
Borussia Dortmund was THE team to simply blindly back the OVER with no capping and with an O/U record of 17-5-3 prior to the break, you’d have been rewarded quite handsomely if you did.
Die Schwarzgelben scored the second-most goals in the league (68) and conceded the most of anyone in the top five and the fifth-most of anyone in the top 10 (33). With an average of just a tick over four goals per game involving Dortmund, you can see how this was a safe bet.
Best UNDER Record: Hoffenheim (7-13-5 O/U)
Hmmmm…Hoffenheim again. Turns out they could very well be a bettor’s best friend.
This certainly wasn’t Julian Nagelsmann’s Hoffenheim as the club was very middling in terms of goals scored and goals conceded. Nagelsmann, who moved to RB Leipzig ahead of the 2019/20 season, turned Hoffenheim into a high-scoring, free-flowing, football club that finished third in goals scored last season and second in goals scored the season before that.
Hoffenheim just couldn’t replicate the goal-scoring antics under new boss Alfred Schreuder but they’ve become a bastion of hope for anyone risky enough to look for UNDERS in the Bundesliga.
Best ATS Record: Borussia Monchengladbach (16-7-2 ATS)
As stated above, this team jumped out of the gate in fine form both on the pitch and at the betting window. They covered the spread, frequently a mixture of -0.5 and +0.5 with some -1s and +1s sprinkled in, in eight of their first 11 games.
That said, I, personally, found myself betting Gladbach games at the exact wrong time. One in particular I recall vividly was the home game against Hoffenheim on February 22nd.
An early goal to go up 1-0. Mounting pressure from Hoffenheim. A saved penalty taken by Alassane Pléa. Denis Zakaria hitting the woodwork. Then, obviously, an injury time goal by Hoffenheim. Final score: 1-1. My bet: lost.
Peak bad beat and couldn’t care less at this point. I’ll still hammer Gladbach when the league returns.
Worst ATS Record: Werder Bremen (7-16-1 ATS)
Not much to add here that hasn’t been said about Bremen earlier. Huge disappointment.
Best Moneyline Home Bet: Union Berlin (+$855.00)
Genuinely one of the league’s most interesting clubs, Union Berlin turned Stadion An der Alten Föresterei into a fortress and a betting ATM machine.
The promoted club, playing in its first-ever Bundesliga campaign, scored some pretty decent upsets at home. The first, and the third-largest moneyline upset in 2019/20, was a 3-1 win over Borussia Dortmund as +650 dogs.
After that, some nice little wins over Freiburg (+165), Hertha (+150), Gladbach (+265), Köln (+110) and Augsburg (+115) make the Bundesliga new boys the most profitable home bet.
And from what I’ve seen, the atmosphere at Union home games always make for thrilling viewing and betting.
Best Moneyline Away Bet: Hoffenheim ($2275.00)
Of course it’s Hoffenheim, what with that massive upset over Bayern at 22/1.
Regardless, Hoffenheim has been pretty good away from home with five wins, four draws and just three defeats in their travels in 2019/20. Plus, they own the league’s stingiest defense on away days with just a dozen goals conceded.
It’s going to be tough to get a read on teams when the league comes back. How intense has training been? Are players in shape? What about the lack of stadium atmosphere? So many questions.
Still, when the ball gets rolling, consider my betting card full. Just like my bierstiefel.