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Bundesliga Matchday 27 Betting Preview

Erling Haaland Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga Matchday 27 Betting Preview

The return of the Bundesliga was largely successful as games saw record TV ratings in the United States, Germany and elsewhere and, as one sportsbook told me, a 40 percent uptick in wagers.

As I outlined in my betting recap earlier this week, bettors had quite a time as well. Books reported fairly sizable losses thanks to the public hammering the likes of Borussia Dortmund, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen, the latter garnering some 90 percent of wagers in the 4-1 drubbing of a hapless Werder Bremen on Monday.

Matchday 27 has some really interesting games in store for us and it all kicks off with a Berlin Derby as Hertha Berlin hosts Union Berlin on Friday. Elsewhere, Leverkusen visits Gladbach in what is shaping up to be the game of the weekend and a telling game in the race for the Champions League spots.

I’m going to talk about all of that here as I take a quick trip around Germany and break down what you need to know before getting your Bundesliga bets in.

Please note that any wagers I talk about, I haven’t made myself just yet. Some I will, others I will stay away from. Consider this article something to use for your own capping purpose. I have one bet locked in as of yet, which I’ll get to in a bit.

Also, there are midweek games to consider after this weekend as the Bundesliga schedule gets a bit congested. There are four games on Tuesday, headlined by Borussia Dortmund hosting Bayern Munich, and five more on Wednesday before more weekend action kicks off on Friday.

If you’re new to betting the Bundesliga, be sure to check out our page on How to Bet the Bundesliga as well as our page on the best sites to bet on soccer.

Also, check out the latest in the world of Bundesliga futures odds in what looks to be a pretty exciting title race.

Hertha Berlin vs Union Berlin

Hertha Berlin vs Union Berlin
TeamMoneylineSpreadTotal
Hertha Berlin+1350, -0.5 (EVEN)OVER 2.5 (-115)
Union Berlin+2150, +0.5 (-120)UNDER 2.5 (-105)
Draw+230----

Odds as of May 21 at Bovada

Hertha got off to a flying start under new manager Bruno Labbadia with a 3-0 win away to Hoffenheim as +215 dogs while Union lost 2-0 to league leader Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga’s return.

Union won the first meeting 1-0 earlier this season courtesy of a Sebastian Polter goal but that was then. Perhaps Hertha, in the wake of some spending in January, has found the right manager in Labbadia.

Missing Players & Questionables

Hertha Berlin: Salomon Kalou (suspension), Karim Rekik (knee)

Union Berlin: Keven Schlotterbeck (suspension), Sheraldo Becker (torn muscle), Maurice Arcones (hamstring), Akaki Gogia (fitness), Laurenz Kehl (fitness), Yunus Mali (fitness)

Form

Hertha Berlin: LWLDDW

Union Berlin: WLWDLL

My Thoughts

My gut tells me that Hertha might bag some points in spots to finish the season stronger than it began and this might be one of those spots. Yes, Union won the reverse fixture but with a new manager and some new talent on the squad, I’d look at betting the hosts in one way or another.

Anytime Goalscorer?

Hertha’s Matheus Cunha was one of the players the club brought in during the January transfer window and he’s been paying dividends. The Brazilian scored in back-to-back games before the league was suspended but then picked up right where he left off by finding the back of the net against Hoffenheim last weekend and he’s +160 to do so on Friday.

Gladbach vs Leverkusen

Gladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen
TeamMoneylineSpreadTotal
Gladbach+1350, -0.5 (+105)OVER 3, 3.5 (EVEN)
Bayer Leverkusen+1800, +0.5 (-125)UNDER 3, 3.5 (-120)
Draw+275----

Odds as of May 21 at Bovada

Undoubtedly the game of the week and the fairly tight odds reflect how close this one could very well be on the pitch.

Both teams impressed in their returns with Gladbach beating Frankfurt 3-1 and Leverkusen easily beating Werder Bremen 4-1 behind a brace from Kai Havertz.

Gladbach is two points up on Leverkusen in the table so three points for either side here is of incredible importance.

The reverse fixture was a 2-1 Gladbach win back in November. In fact, Gladbach has won three straight Bundesliga meetings against Leverkusen.

Missing Players & Questionables

Borussia Mönchengladbach: Fabian Johnson (muscular issues), Denis Zakaria (knee)

Bayer Leverkusen: Kevin Volland (ligament tear)

Form

Borussia Mönchengladbach: WDWLWW

Bayer Leverkusen: WWWDWW

My Thoughts

Incredibly tough to call and a potential stay-away for me. The teams are evenly matched with each conceding just 31 goals this season but Gladbach has the edge in terms of goals with 52 compared to Leverkusen’s 49.

That said, with the better price on Leverkusen, it’s going to prove tough to not back the visitors, especially since they’ll have the best player on the pitch in Havertz.

Anytime Goalscorer?

With the amount of attacking talent on display, take your pick. Gladbach’s Allasane Pléa scored within seconds of kickoff last weekend and he did score away to Leverkusen last season.

Pléa comes in at around +140 while Havertz, who scored two headers in Monday’s win, is +150. Regardless, both teams feature players up and down the pitch who can score.

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
TeamMoneylineSpreadTotal
Freiburg+1200, -0.5 (-110)OVER 2.5, 3 (-115)
Werder Bremen+2150, +0.5 (-110)UNDER 2.5, 3 (-105)
Draw+260----

Odds as of May 21 at Bovada

While Freiburg tries to chase down a Europa League spot, Werder Bremen is spiraling directly into 2. Bundesliga.

Bremen was dreadful against Leverkusen on Monday and has conceded the most goals in the Bundesliga (59). Freiburg kept Leipzig at bay with a 1-1 result, adding to their league-high 10 draws so far this campaign.

Still, Bremen managed a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture but it was Freiburg who equalized in injury time through Nils Petersen after Freiburg had a man sent off just minutes before. Not surprising considering the state of Werder Bremen, I suppose.

On the plus side for Bremen, Davy Klaassen will be back after serving his suspension against Leverkusen. That’s something, I guess.

Missing Players & Questionables

Freiburg: Lukas Kübler (fitness)

Werder Bremen: Claudio Pizzaro (hamstring), Niclas Füllkrug (cruciate ligament), Kevin Möhwald (fitness)

Form

Freiburg: WDLLWD

Werder Bremen: LLLLDL

My Thoughts

When I was watching Bremen and I was watching an easy Leverkusen bet hit, I couldn’t wait to play against them again. So to remain true to that, I’m pretty sure I’ll be playing the Freiburg moneyline here. At 9-12-5, Freiburg is also one of the steadier UNDER bets in the league. Take that with a grain of salt as this is the Bunesliga, after all.

Anytime Goalscorer?

Freiburg isn’t the highest-scoring team, but Petersen is their leader, scoring eight of their 35 goals. It’s not the best price at around +130, but considering he’s scored the second-most goals ever in this fixture (eight), it might be worth a shot. Also, the younger Luca Waldschmidt is around +180 and is Freiburg’s second-highest scorer with five.

If Bremen is going to get anything going, the chances of it coming from Milot Rashica (+200) are pretty high.

Paderborn vs Hoffenheim

Paderborn vs Hoffenheim
TeamMoneylineSpreadTotal
Paderborn+2300, +0.5 (+EVEN)OVER 3 (-105)
Hoffenheim+1100, -0.5 (-120)UNDER 3 (-115)
Draw+280----

Odds as of May 21 at Bovada

Paderborn hosts struggling Hoffenheim in a clash of the two best UNDER records in the Bundesliga. Paderborn is coming off a 0-0 draw away to Düsseldorf while Hoffenheim was hammered at home 3-0 by Hertha Berlin.

Paderborn is dead last in the league while Hoffenheim is free-falling down the table with a poor run of form.

The reverse fixture was an easy 3-0 Hoffenheim win behind goals from Robert Skov, Pavel Kaderábek and Jürgen Locadia, all of which came inside the first half-hour of the game.

Missing Players & Questionables

Paderborn: NA

Hoffenheim: Havard Nordtveit (muscular issue), Konstantinos Stafylidis (muscular issue), Andrej Kramaric (knee), Diadie Samassékou (muscular issue), Ishak Belfodil (knee)

Form

Paderborn: DLLLLD

Hoffenheim: LLDLDL

My Thoughts

Look at those forms. Barf. Only Augsburg and Bremen are on a worse run of form than these two sides.

One thing to note is Hoffenheim’s injury list. Kramaric’s absence in particular is incredibly noticeable. For context, per the ever-valuable site Transfermarkt, Kramaric’s value alone eclipses that of tiny Paderborn. If he doesn’t go here again, Hoffenheim could struggle.

This one is shaping up to be a game I’ll avoid betting and watching, but the price on the home team is enticing. Gun to my head would be the UNDER 3 considering these are the sides with the best UNDER records in the league.

Anytime Goalscorer?

Well, if Kramaric is indeed on the shelf, Skov at +200 might be worth a play. Streli Mamba, Paderborn’s leading scorer (five), is also out there for +200. But again, not a game that I’m entirely interested in.

Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund

Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund
TeamMoneylineSpreadTotal
Wolfsburg+350+0.5, +1 (-120)OVER 3 (+105)
Borussia Dortmund-130-0.5, -1 (EVEN)UNDER 3 (-125)
Draw+295----

Odds as of May 21 at Bovada

This is the only game I’ve bet at the time of publication as I jumped all over the Dortmund moneyline at -135.

Watching Dortmund win 4-0 against Schalke was impressive but Wolfsburg is on a good run of form, to their credit.

Entering Matchday 27 in sixth place, Wolfsburg is on pace for a spot in the Europa League. They are a very good defensive unit but they will certainly have their hands full with the league’s second-highest scoring team in town.

Furthermore, this has been a very one-sided rivalry down the years. Dortmund has eight wins and one draw in the last nine meetings with Wolfsburg, outscoring them 24-3 in the process. In a smaller sample size, Dortmund has won five with one draw in the last six and has outscored Wolfsburg 12-0, including a 3-0 win in November. Yikes.

Missing Players & Questionables

Wolfsburg: Yannick Gerhardt (facial fracture), William (cruciate ligament rupture), Ignacio Camacho (ankle)

Borussia Dortmund: Marco Reus (fitness), Axel Witsel (muscular issue), Emre Can (muscular issue), Dan-Axel Zagadou (knee)

Form

Wolfsburg: DWWDDW

Borussia Dortmund: LWWWWW

My Thoughts

As stated, I already bet the Dortmund moneyline at -135. Yes, Wolfsburg has strung together some good results entering this game. Yes, Dortmund has Bayern Munich to look forward to on Tuesday. But Dortmund looked like it hadn’t missed a beat in the easy win against Schalke and Jadon Sancho didn’t even start.

If you believe in the look-ahead spot, the Wolfsburg moneyline or double chance are some pretty solid options.

Anytime Goalscorer?

You can never go wrong with Erling Haaland. I took him at -125 last week but this time around, he’s sitting at -225 or pricier at some spots. But it might be worth taking a look at the fullbacks Raphael Guerreiro (+225) and/or Achraf Hakimi (+350).

Guerreiro in particular is a goal-scoring dynamo from the left flank. He’s fourth on the squad with seven goals and is coming off a brace against Schalke.

Hakimi is not as prolific a goalscorer as Guerreiro, but with three goals and 10 assists, he’s always getting forward and involved in Dortmund attacks.

Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt
TeamMoneylineSpreadTotal
Bayern Munich-700-2, -2.5 (-115)OVER 3.5, 4 (-120)
Eintracht Frankfurt+1500+2, +2.5(-105)UNDER 3.5, 4 (EVEN)
Draw+750----

Odds as of May 21 at Bovada

League leader Bayern Munich is coming off a 2-0 win against Union Berlin in which they never really had to shift into second. Union tried to defend admirably but a clumsy Neven Subotic foul in the box late in the first half resulted in Robert Lewandowski converting and, really, the rest was history.

After one game back, we still haven’t really been reminded of what Bayern is capable of. Which does not bode well for Frankfurt.

Die Adler were one of the worst performers last week, looking lethargic and completely out of it in a 3-1 loss at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach. Andre Silva did score a nice enough goal later on but it was just a formality at that point.

Missing Players & Questionables

Bayern Munich: Niklas Süle (fitness), Philippe Coutinho (ankle), Corentin Tolisso (ankle)

Eintracht Frankfurt: Dominik Kohr (suspension), Gonçalo Paciência (muscle injury)

Form

Bayern Munich: DWWWWW

Eintracht Frankfurt: DWLLLL

My Thoughts

Nothing to see here, really. It should be another “training session” for Bayern as they look to keep Borussia Dortmund at arm’s length ahead of Tuesday’s meeting.

Bizarrely, the reverse fixture was a 5-1 Frankfurt win so all you “revenge spot” believers should pile on Bayern.

Personally, again, not a game I’m particularly thrilled about from a betting perspective. Bayern is (predictably) the biggest fave of the day. If anything, Bayern OVER 3 (-120) doesn’t look too bad.

Anytime Goalscorer?

Robert Lewandowski is -333 so that’s out. But winger Serge Gnabry is sitting there at EVEN money to score anytime and considering he was on a tear prior to the hiatus, maybe he finds that form against Frankfurt.

Schalke vs Augsburg

Schalke vs Augsburg
TeamMoneylineSpreadTotal
SchalkeEVEN-0.5 (EVEN)OVER 2.5 (-115)
Augsburg+280+0.5 (-120)UNDER 2.5 (-105)
Draw+255----

Odds as of May 21 at Bovada

Life under David Wagner started out so promising for Schalke with seven wins, four draws and three losses in the first 14 games. Since then? One win, six draws and five losses, capped off by a dismal performance against Dortmund last weekend.

Things haven’t gone any better for Augsburg, though, with one win, one draw and eight losses in their last 10 games. Something’s gotta give in Gelsenkirchen in the early Sunday game.

Schalke won the previous game 3-2 in a contest that saw nine bookings, an own goal, a penalty and an 82nd-minute winner from Amine Harit.

Schalke is within touching distance of the Europa League but they have got to turn things around quickly. At home to an equally reeling Augsburg is a great start.

Missing Players & Questionables

Schalke: Amine Harit (MCL injury), Jean-Clair Todibo (ankle), Benjamin Stambouli (fitness), Omar Mascarell (muscle tear), Ozan Kabak (vertebra injury)

Augsburg: Simon Asta (cruciate ligament)

Form

Schalke: DDLLDL

Augsburg: LDLLLL

My Thoughts

The Schalke injury list is not good news, especially Harit. He’s second on the team with six goals and leads the team with four assists. He’s a dribbling machine and nobody in the Bundesliga gets fouled more often (2.8 per game).

That said, in the only other game he’s missed this season through injury, they beat Gladbach 2-0.

Both teams will be eager for points in this one but Augsburg does not travel well. With all the injuries, I’m still thinking about taking the Schalke moneyline here. Augsburg has one Bundesliga win against Schalke. One. That was 2-1 back in 2015.

Anytime Goalscorer?

Suat Serdar leads Schalke with seven goals this season and is around +200 while Guido Burgstaller, still looking for his first goal of the season, is around the same price. This one may not feature a ton of goals, though.

Mainz vs Leipzig

Mainz vs Leipzig
TeamMoneylineSpreadTotal
Mainz+550+1, +1.5 (-115)OVER 3, 3.5 (-105)
Leipzig-225-1, -1.5 (-105)UNDER 3, 3.5 (-115)
Draw+390----

Odds as of May 21 at Bovada

Leipzig likes to score. Mainz does not stop teams from scoring. Both of these facts were on full display the last time these two played as Leipzig stormed to an 8-0 win.

Leipzig will be feeling pressure for that fourth Champions League spot with Leverkusen now breathing down their necks, just one point behind entering Matchday 27.

Mainz, on the other hand, played admirably well against Köln after going down 2-0 before Taiwo Awoniyi and Pierre Kunde hit the scoresheet and deservedly shared the points. I thought they played quite well after going down in what was one of the more entertaining games.

Leipzig poses a completely different threat as they feature one of the best defensive units in the league with just 27 goals conceded.

Missing Players & Questionables

Mainz: Robin Zentner (ruptured cruciate ligament)

Leipzig: NA

Form

Mainz: WDLWDD

Leipzig: DWWDDD

My Thoughts

Leipzig has the fewest losses in the league (three) but as you can see from that current form, they’ve been a draw machine recently. Not here. I’ll be jumping on the goal-scoring train here and will be looking at Leipzig totals.

Leipzig OVER 2.5 is currently +125 and the OVER 3 is +245. If you’re feeling super adventurous and feel like another whupping is in store on Sunday, OVER 4 is +650.

I like the way Mainz plays. Hell, this is the club that gave the world Jürgen Klopp. On their day, however, Leipzig is a machine. They quite convincingly dispatched my Tottenham in the Champions League before the hiatus. Mainz will be overmatched here. Again.

Anytime Goalscorer?

Leipzig gets scoring from just about every position but not too many strikers around Europe have been as prolific as Timo Werner this season. He’s second in the Bundesliga in goals (21) and third across Europe’s “big five” leagues behind Lazio’s Ciro Immobile (27) and Bayern’s Robert Lewandowski (26).

And to be honest, -154 isn’t the worst price. He scored a hat trick in the reverse fixture. Even though he’s gone “cold” with just one Bundesliga goal in his last eight appearances, he’ll be eager to hit the ground running in Mainz on Sunday.

Köln vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

Köln vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
TeamMoneylineSpreadTotal
Köln-130-0.5, -1 (EVEN)OVER 2.5, 3 (-115)
Fortuna Düsseldorf+335+0.5, +1 (-120)UNDER 2.5, 3 (-105)
Draw+295----

Odds as of May 21 at Bovada

For around 53 minutes, Köln was impressive against Mainz, going up 2-0 and looking like they had it in the bag. For the next 37, they were completely outplayed by Mainz.

I did not watch the Düsseldorf game, but a 0-0 against bottom-of-the-table Paderborn doesn’t sit well.

Düsseldorf is in 16th place and four points back of Mainz while Köln is reasonably comfortable in the middle of the table.

Missing Players & Questionables

Köln: Rafael Czichos (spine injury)

Fortuna Düsseldorf: Zack Steffen (MCL injury), Dawid Kownacki (knee)

Form

Köln: LWWWLD

Fortuna Düsseldorf: DLWDDD

My Thoughts

Düsseldorf grinded out a 2-0 home win in the reverse fixture but it’s Köln or nothing for me here. -130 is looking pretty attractive at this point even though they did squander a 2-0 lead last weekend.

As for totals, Köln is 13-8-5 OVER/UNDER while Düsseldorf is at the other end of the spectrum at 9-12-5 O/U.

I’ll be looking at the Köln ML and/or Köln OVER 1.5 come matchday.

Anytime Goalscorer?

Köln striker Jhon Cordoba is always worth a look and he’s coming in at EVEN money at the time of writing. But, if you’re feeling like Düsseldorf might put in some work here, don’t sleep on Rouwen Hennings at around +140.

Hennings is tied with a number of other players for fifth in the league with 11 goals. He is scoreless in his last six games but he did hit the back of the net in the reverse fixture.