This week, our English Premier League expert picks for Matchweek 26 will hope to replicate the profits we found last week.
We're going to keep track of our weekly picks. Here's our three bets from last weekend and the results:
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Newcastle vs. Bournemouth: Draw | +300 |
| Fulham vs. Aston Villa O2.5 | -150 |
| Manchester City vs Chelsea O3.5 | +110 |
| Overall Record | 2-1 |
| Profits (Units) | +2.6 |
English Premier League Expert Picks Matchweek 26
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
The Game: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday Feb 24, 10 AM
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | -180 | O2.5 (-165) |
| Bournemouth | +475 | U2.5 (+145) |
| Draw | +360 |
Pick: O2.5 (-165)
I'm basically making this bet blindly every week. So long as Villa is at home, I'm betting the OVER. Specifically when the line is 2.5 goals. The Villans have cashed on OVER 2.5 goals nine times in 12 home games. An insane 75%. With 28 goals in those nine games, Villa is responsible for 70% of the scoring in those games.
And it's not like Forest is a defensive powerhouse that can slow down Villa's offense. They've got the ninth-worst defense record away from home and cashed on OVER 2.5 goals 66% since appointing a new manager.
Brighton vs Everton
The Game: Brighton vs Everton, Saturday Feb 24, 10 AM
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | -115 | O2.5 (-150) |
| Everton | +310 | U2.5 (+120) |
| Draw | +290 |
Pick: U2.5 (+120)
I get that Brighton has scored a ton lately. But based on xG, they've scored 4.5 goals above expected. That's some really lucky goalscoring from the Gulls. Everton might not be very good based on their record, but they are a good defensive side.
Everton has the fourth-best defensive record in the league with 33 goals conceded. Away from home, they've got the sixth-best defensive record. In their last five, Sean Dyche's side has allowed an average of 1.00 goals and kept the total below 2.5 goals four times.
Brighton's luck might dry up as this game is dragged to below 2.5 goals.
Arsenal vs Newcastle
The Game: Arsenal vs Newcastle, Saturday Feb 24, 3 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | -270 | O3.5 (+125) |
| Newcastle | +650 | U3.5 (-155) |
| Draw | +450 |
Pick: O3.5 (+125)
Both sides have something to prove here. For Arsenal, it's that they can keep up with Liverpool and Manchester City in the title race. They'll also want to put that 1-0 loss in the Champions League behind them. And for Newcastle, it's that they belong in the top four. Both are going to go for all three points properly.
OVER 3.5 goals has hit in Arsenal's last five straight games. For Newcastle, OVER 3.5 has hit in their last seven straight. With both teams going for all the points, we'll likely be treated to quite a few goals.
